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Factoid

Free agent wide receivers

Hit rates on transplanted wide receivers

I posted the Factoid the other day, showing the high miss ran on transplanted wide receivers. When a 1,000-yard receiver switches teams (via trade or free agency) only about a third of those receivers then go over 1,000 with their new club.

Bill Rehor pointed out that rather he’d rather see not 1,000-yard receivers but players that we’re perceived as being valuable. Kenny Britt, for example, moved to the Browns, but nobody was selecting him in fantasy leagues counting on him being a top-20 receiver.

Fair enough point. I’ve had time to go back and re-pull the numbers.

I catalog all of the free agent movers, and I attach a grade to each player – 1 thru 5. A 5-star player is one everyone is excited about. One who everyone agrees is going to be a top-15 receiver – an every-week starter. In the past 20 years, there have been 27 of these receivers (I think).

Their numbers are as follows. If a player’s production (using standard scoring) was better in his first year with his new team, I tagged him with a black dot.

FREE AGENT RECEIVERS -- 5-STAR RECRUITS
YearPlayer (Tm Rec-Yds-TD)TmNoYardsTD
2007• Randy Moss (Oak 42-553-3)NE981,49323
2015• Brandon Marshall (Chi. 61-721-8)NYJ1091,50214
2012• Brandon Marshall (Mia. 81-1214-6)Chi.1181,50811
2004• Terrell Owens (SF 80-1102-9)Phil771,20014
2006• Terrell Owens (Phil 47-763-6)Dall851,18013
2012• Vincent Jackson (SD 60-1106-9)T.B.721,3848
2003• Laveranues Coles (NYJ 89-1264-5)Was821,2046
2014DeSean Jackson (Phil 82-1332-9)Was561,1696
2005Randy Moss (Min 49-767-13)Oak601,0058
2013Wes Welker (NE 118-1354-6)Den7377810
2000Keyshawn Johnson (NYJ 89-1170-8)TB718748
2003• David Boston (Ari 32-512-1)SD708807
2014Eric Decker (Den 87-1288-11)NYJ749625
2010Anquan Boldin (Ariz 84-1024-5)Balt648377
1998Derrick Alexander (Bal 65-1009-9)KC549924
2013Mike Wallace (Pitt 64-836-8)Mia739305
2010Brandon Marshall (Den 101-1120-10)Mia861,0143
2009Terrell Owens (Dall 69-1052-10)Buf558296
2009T.J. Houshmandzadeh (Cin 92-904-4)Sea799113
2003Peerless Price (Buf 94-1252-9)Atl648383
2001• Terry Glenn (NE 14-204-1)GB568172
2013Danny Amendola (StL 63-666-3)NE546332
1998Yancey Thigpen (Pit 79-1398-7)Ten384933
2011• Sidney Rice (Min 17-280-2)Sea324842
2000Carl Pickens (Cin 57-737-6)Ten102420
2000Joey Galloway (Sea 22-335-1)Dal4621
2013Percy Harvin (Min 62-677-5)Sea1170

A notch below those elite players, you’ve got the 4-star recruits. These are guy who were definitely going to be drafted in every 12-team fantasy league. Some in each league would definitely think there was some starter potential. But not the sizzling hot guys like the 5-star recruits.

FREE AGENT RECEIVERS -- 4-STAR RECRUITS
YearPlayer (Tm Rec-Yds-TD)TmNoYardsTD
2005• Santana Moss (NYJ 45-838-5)Was841,4839
2014• Emmanuel Sanders (Pitt 67-740-6)Den1011,4049
2000• Joe Horn (KC 35-586-6)NO941,3408
2001• Jerry Rice (SF 75-805-7)Oak831,1399
2005• Plaxico Burress (Pit 35-698-5)NYG761,2147
2006• Javon Walker (GB 4-27-0)Den691,0849
2013• Anquan Boldin (Balt 65-921-4)SF851,1797
2007• Kevin Curtis (StL 40-479-4)Phi771,1108
2015Jeremy Maclin (Phil. 85-1318-10)K.C.871,0888
1999• Rocket Ismail (Car 69-1024-8)Dal801,0977
1997• Andre Rison (J-GB 47-593-3)KC721,0927
2008• Bernard Berrian (Chi 71-951-5)Min489648
2004• Keyshawn Johnson (TB 45-600-3)Dall709816
1999Tony Martin (Atl 66-1181-6)Mia671,0375
2001• James Thrash (Was 50-653-2)Phi638338
2008• Isaac Bruce (StL 55-733-4)SF618357
2005Derrick Mason (Ten 96-1168-7)Bal861,0733
2011• Jabar Gaffney (Den 65-875-2)Was689475
2012Brandon Lloyd (StL 70-966-5)N.E.749115
2016• Marvin Jones (Cin. 65-816-4)Det.559304
2005• Laveranues Coles (Was 90-950-1)NYJ738455
2004• Marcus Robinson (Bal 31-451-6)Minn476578
2006Keyshawn Johnson (Dall 71-839-6)Car708155
2010Santonio Holmes (Pitt 79-1248-5)NYJ527466
2011• Plaxico Burress (UFA 0-0-0)NYJ456128
2013• Greg Jennings (GB 36-366-4)Min688044
2002Keenan McCardell (Jac 93-1110-6)TB616706
2006Donte Stallworth (NO 70-945-7)Phi387255
2000• Curtis Conway (Chi 44-426-4)SD537125
2004Justin McCareins (Ten 47-813-8)NYJ567704
2005Muhsin Muhammad (Car 93-1405-16)Chi647504
2006Deion Branch (NE 78-998-5)Sea537254
2016Travis Benjamin (Clev. 68-966-6)S.D.476774
2006Antonio Bryant (Cle 69-1009-4)SF407333
2009Laveranues Coles (NYJ 70-850-7)Cin435145
2004Joey Galloway (Dall 34-672-2)TB334166
1998Bert Emanuel (Atl 65-991-9)TB416362
2008• Bryant Johnson (Ari 46-528-2)SF455463
2009Torry Holt (StL 64-796-3)Jac517220
2006Joe Jurevicius (Sea 55-694-10)Cle404953
2002Qadry Ismail (Bal 74-1059-7)Ind444623
2006Antwaan Randle El (Pit 35-558-3)Was323514
1999Charles Johnson (Pit 65-815-7)Phi344141
2002Johnnie Morton (Det 77-1154-4)KC293971
2006Nate Burleson (Min 30-328-1)Sea181923
2006Brandon Lloyd (SF 48-733-5)Was233650
2011Chad Ochocinco (Cin 67-831-4)NE152761
2012Robert Meachem (NO 40-620-6)S.D.142072
2001Albert Connell (Was 39-762-3)NO121912
2008Javon Walker (Den 26-287-0)Oak151961
2011Braylon Edwards (NYJ 53-904-7)SF151810
2006David Givens (NE 59-738-2)Ten81040
2011Lee Evans (Buf 37-578-4)Balt4740
2004David Boston (SD 70-880-7)Mia000

—Ian Allan

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