Atlanta plays tonight and has the Bucs just where it wants them. Julio Jones caught 11 passes for 253 yards and 2 TDs against this same defense three weeks ago. He can be safely inked in for another huge game. Right?
Tampa Bay has a terrible defense, but what about the dynamic (real or imagined) that it could make more of an effort to take away the player that cooked them in the last game? It would seem unlikely that they would be content to let Jones waltz in and go over 150 yards again, with another pair of touchdowns. They’re probably not excited about being embarrassed on national television.
So instead of being a great situation for Jones, maybe the reverse is actually true, and he’s going to put up lesser numbers than usual.
There’s also the reality that it’s simply really hard putting together games with 130-plus yards.
So let’s look at some numbers. Since the NFL went to the eight-division format in 2002, 31 receivers have gone over 200 yards in a game against an opponent inside the division. None of those receivers in their other game against that opponent went over 100 yards. Only three caught touchdowns.
The same receiver, going against the same opponent with the same defense, but dramatically different results.
Of the last 14 wide receivers to go over 200 yards, then come back and play that same opponent later in the same season, they combined to catch 62 passes for 681 yards and 1 TD in the rematch games. That’s an average of about 4 catches for 49 yards. (That’s setting aside DeSean Jackson, who didn’t play at all against Dallas in Week 17 in 2010.)
| 200-YARD RECEIVERS: REMATCH GAMES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Stats | Opp. | No | Yds | TD |
| 2002 | Shannon Sharpe | 12-214-2 | K.C. | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| 2007 | Chad Ochocinco | 11-209-2 | Clev. | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| 2010 | DeSean Jackson | 4-210-1 | Dall. | -- | -- | -- |
| 2010 | Malcom Floyd | 8-213-1 | Oak. | 5 | 72 | 0 |
| 2010 | Terrell Owens | 10-222-1 | Clev. | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2011 | Wes Welker | 16-217-2 | Buff. | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| 2012 | Vincent Jackson | 7-216-1 | at N.O. | 6 | 81 | 0 |
| 2013 | Josh Gordon | 14-237-1 | at Pitt. | 7 | 82 | 0 |
| 2013 | Andre Johnson | 9-229-3 | at Ind. | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| 2014 | A.J. Green | 11-224-1 | at Pitt. | 8 | 82 | 0 |
| 2014 | T.Y. Hilton | 9-223-1 | Hou. | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| 2015 | A.J. Green | 10-227-2 | Balt. | 4 | 34 | 1 |
| 2016 | Marvin Jones | 6-205-2 | G.B. | 5 | 76 | 0 |
| 2016 | Julio Jones | 12-300-1 | at Car. | 4 | 60 | 0 |
| 2017 | Amari Cooper | 11-210-2 | at K.C. | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2017 | Julio Jones | 12-253-2 | at T.B. | ? | ? | ? |
If we instead look at the “prematch” games, the results are even worse. On these, I’m looking at the 15 receivers who went over 200 yards against a divisional opponent later in the year – I’m going back and looking at how the receiver performed against the same defense earlier in the season.
For this group, the 15 receivers caught only 44 passes for 518 yards and 2 TDs in the appetizer games. Remarkably, that’s an average of 3 catches for 35 yards. Antonio Brown most recently fit into this profile perfectly – 213 yards against Baltimore on Sunday night, but 4 catches for 34 yards in the earlier game against the Ravens (when the Steelers were running the heck out of it).
| 200-YARD RECEIVERS: PREMATCH GAMES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Stats | Opp. | No | Yds | TD |
| 2003 | Torry Holt | 11-200-1 | S.F. | 6 | 64 | 1 |
| 2005 | Chris Chambers | 15-238-1 | at Buff. | 4 | 60 | 0 |
| 2008 | Andre Johnson | 11-207-1 | at Tenn. | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| 2008 | Antonio Bryant | 9-200-2 | Car. | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| 2009 | Jabar Gaffney | 14-213-0 | at K.C. | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2009 | Sidney Rice | 7-201-0 | at Det. | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| 2011 | Calvin Johnson | 11-244-1 | G.B. | 4 | 49 | 1 |
| 2012 | Andre Johnson | 14-273-1 | at Jac. | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| 2012 | Calvin Johnson | 12-207-1 | Minn. | 5 | 54 | 0 |
| 2012 | Justin Blackmon | 7-236-1 | Hou. | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2013 | Alshon Jeffery | 12-249-2 | Minn. | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| 2014 | DeAndre Hopkins | 9-238-2 | at Tenn. | 5 | 95 | 0 |
| 2014 | Eric Decker | 10-221-1 | Mia. | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| 2016 | Adam Thielen | 12-202-2 | G.B. | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| 2017 | Antonio Brown | 11-213-0 | at Balt. | 4 | 34 | 0 |
I can’t blame anyone for starting Julio Jones. Great player who’ll go off a few times each year – like a bigger, more physical version of T.Y. Hilton. But not particularly likely to really scorch this Bucs defense tonight, I think. The huge game back in Week 12 might actually work against him.
—Ian Allan