Scheduletron

December 28, 2017

Sizing up the eight divisions

NFC South will finish 10 games over .500

All of the games in Week 17 are divisional, so we now can gauge the strength of the eight divisions. We know how the composite win-loss records are going to play out.

The NFC South will finish with by far the best record, with those four teams finishing with 10 more wins than losses. No other division finished with better than a 34-30 record.

Three of the divisions in the AFC are going to finish with losing records, with the AFC South down at the bottom of the heap – 10 fewer wins than losses. Only the AFC East (33-31) managed to sneak over .500.

With the way things are playing out, it looks like teams from the NFC South and NFC North will project to play to the hardest schedules in 2018. Especially the first place teams in those divisions (since they’ll also play two games against other division winners, and all four division winners in that conference might win at least 12 games).

WIN-LOSS RECORDS OF THE EIGHT DIVISIONS
Division	W	L	Pct	2018 Opponents
NFC South	37	27	.578	AFC North, NFC East
NFC West	34	30	.531	AFC West, NFC North
NFC North	34	30	.531	AFC East, NFC West
AFC East	33	31	.516	AFC South, NFC North
NFC East	32	32	.500	AFC South, NFC South
AFC West	30	34	.469	AFC North, NFC West
AFC North	29	35	.453	AFC West, NFC South
AFC South	27	37	.422	AFC East, NFC East

While the NFC South has a good chance of finishing with three playoff teams, the combined win-loss record of 37-27 isn’t unusually good. Since the league went to 32 teams in 2002, 12 other divisions have finished with even better composite records.

DIVISIONS WITH 10 MORE WINS THAN LOSSES
Year	Division	W	L	T	Pct
2013	NFC West	42	22	0	.656
2007	AFC South	42	22	0	.656
2008	NFC South	40	24	0	.625
2007	NFC East	40	24	0	.625
2016	NFC East	39	24	1	.617
2014	AFC North	38	25	1	.602
2008	NFC East	38	25	1	.602
2016	AFC West	38	26	0	.594
2009	AFC South	38	26	0	.594
2008	AFC South	38	26	0	.594
2008	AFC East	38	26	0	.594
2002	NFC South	37	26	1	.586
2017	NFC South	37	27	0	.578
2014	NFC West	37	27	0	.578
2013	AFC West	37	27	0	.578
2011	AFC North	37	27	0	.578
2004	AFC East	37	27	0	.578

Similarly, while the AFC South has gone only 27-37, that’s not an unusually bad record. In the last 15 years, 18 other divisions have finished with even worse records.

DIVISIONS WITH 10 MORE LOSSES THAN WINS
Year	Division	W	L	T	Pct
2008	NFC West	22	42	0	.344
2014	NFC South	22	41	1	.352
2008	AFC West	23	41	0	.359
2016	NFC West	23	39	2	.375
2013	AFC South	24	40	0	.375
2009	NFC West	24	40	0	.375
2015	AFC South	25	39	0	.391
2014	AFC South	25	39	0	.391
2010	NFC West	25	39	0	.391
2008	NFC North	25	39	0	.391
2004	NFC West	25	39	0	.391
2002	NFC North	25	39	0	.391
2015	NFC East	26	38	0	.406
2012	AFC West	26	38	0	.406
2011	AFC South	26	38	0	.406
2007	AFC West	26	38	0	.406
2007	NFC West	26	38	0	.406
2016	AFC North	26	37	1	.414
2017	AFC South	27	37	0	.422
2007	NFC South	27	37	0	.422

It is always dangerous, of course – foolhardy, some would say – trying to use win-loss records to forecast strength of schedule for future years. Divisions change.

Of the last 28 divisions to finish at least 8 games over .500, 6 of them the following year finished with losing record (tagged with double black dots). Three went .500. Only 8 of the 28 again finished at least 6 games over .500 (I’ve got those in bold).

STRONG DIVISIONS (the next year)
Year	Division	W	L	T	Pct
2013	NFC West (42-22-0)	37	27	0	.578
2007	AFC South (42-22-0)	38	26	0	.594
2008	NFC South (40-24-0)	33	31	0	.516
2007	NFC East (40-24-0)	38	25	1	.602
2016	•NFC East (39-24-1)	32	32	0	.500
2014	••AFC North (38-25-1)	30	34	0	.469
2008	NFC East (38-25-1)	34	30	0	.531
2009	••AFC South (38-26-0)	30	34	0	.469
2016	••AFC West (38-26-0)	30	34	0	.469
2008	•AFC East (38-26-0)	32	32	0	.500
2008	AFC South (38-26-0)	38	26	0	.594
2002	••NFC South (37-26-1)	31	33	0	.484
2004	••AFC East (37-27-0)	28	36	0	.438
2011	AFC North (37-27-0)	33	31	0	.516
2013	AFC West (37-27-0)	33	31	0	.516
2014	NFC West (37-27-0)	35	29	0	.547
2017	NFC South (37-27-0)	?	?	?	?
2002	••AFC West (36-28-0)	31	33	0	.484
2005	•NFC East (36-28-0)	32	32	0	.500
2016	AFC East (36-28-0)	33	31	0	.516
2010	AFC East (36-28-0)	33	31	0	.516
2015	NFC South (36-28-0)	33	31	0	.516
2010	NFC South (36-28-0)	33	31	0	.516
2004	AFC North (36-28-0)	34	30	0	.531
2005	AFC West (36-28-0)	34	30	0	.531
2011	NFC North (36-28-0)	35	29	0	.547
2015	AFC East (36-28-0)	36	28	0	.563
2003	AFC East (36-28-0)	37	27	0	.578

—Ian Allan

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