All of the games in Week 17 are divisional, so we now can gauge the strength of the eight divisions. We know how the composite win-loss records are going to play out.

The NFC South will finish with by far the best record, with those four teams finishing with 10 more wins than losses. No other division finished with better than a 34-30 record.

Three of the divisions in the AFC are going to finish with losing records, with the AFC South down at the bottom of the heap – 10 fewer wins than losses. Only the AFC East (33-31) managed to sneak over .500.

With the way things are playing out, it looks like teams from the NFC South and NFC North will project to play to the hardest schedules in 2018. Especially the first place teams in those divisions (since they’ll also play two games against other division winners, and all four division winners in that conference might win at least 12 games).

WIN-LOSS RECORDS OF THE EIGHT DIVISIONS
DivisionWLPct2018 Opponents
NFC South3727.578AFC North, NFC East
NFC West3430.531AFC West, NFC North
NFC North3430.531AFC East, NFC West
AFC East3331.516AFC South, NFC North
NFC East3232.500AFC South, NFC South
AFC West3034.469AFC North, NFC West
AFC North2935.453AFC West, NFC South
AFC South2737.422AFC East, NFC East

While the NFC South has a good chance of finishing with three playoff teams, the combined win-loss record of 37-27 isn’t unusually good. Since the league went to 32 teams in 2002, 12 other divisions have finished with even better composite records.

DIVISIONS WITH 10 MORE WINS THAN LOSSES
YearDivisionWLTPct
2013NFC West42220.656
2007AFC South42220.656
2008NFC South40240.625
2007NFC East40240.625
2016NFC East39241.617
2014AFC North38251.602
2008NFC East38251.602
2016AFC West38260.594
2009AFC South38260.594
2008AFC South38260.594
2008AFC East38260.594
2002NFC South37261.586
2017NFC South37270.578
2014NFC West37270.578
2013AFC West37270.578
2011AFC North37270.578
2004AFC East37270.578

Similarly, while the AFC South has gone only 27-37, that’s not an unusually bad record. In the last 15 years, 18 other divisions have finished with even worse records.

DIVISIONS WITH 10 MORE LOSSES THAN WINS
YearDivisionWLTPct
2008NFC West22420.344
2014NFC South22411.352
2008AFC West23410.359
2016NFC West23392.375
2013AFC South24400.375
2009NFC West24400.375
2015AFC South25390.391
2014AFC South25390.391
2010NFC West25390.391
2008NFC North25390.391
2004NFC West25390.391
2002NFC North25390.391
2015NFC East26380.406
2012AFC West26380.406
2011AFC South26380.406
2007AFC West26380.406
2007NFC West26380.406
2016AFC North26371.414
2017AFC South27370.422
2007NFC South27370.422

It is always dangerous, of course – foolhardy, some would say – trying to use win-loss records to forecast strength of schedule for future years. Divisions change.

Of the last 28 divisions to finish at least 8 games over .500, 6 of them the following year finished with losing record (tagged with double black dots). Three went .500. Only 8 of the 28 again finished at least 6 games over .500 (I’ve got those in bold).

STRONG DIVISIONS (the next year)
YearDivisionWLTPct
2013NFC West (42-22-0)37270.578
2007AFC South (42-22-0)38260.594
2008NFC South (40-24-0)33310.516
2007NFC East (40-24-0)38251.602
2016•NFC East (39-24-1)32320.500
2014••AFC North (38-25-1)30340.469
2008NFC East (38-25-1)34300.531
2009••AFC South (38-26-0)30340.469
2016••AFC West (38-26-0)30340.469
2008•AFC East (38-26-0)32320.500
2008AFC South (38-26-0)38260.594
2002••NFC South (37-26-1)31330.484
2004••AFC East (37-27-0)28360.438
2011AFC North (37-27-0)33310.516
2013AFC West (37-27-0)33310.516
2014NFC West (37-27-0)35290.547
2017NFC South (37-27-0)????
2002••AFC West (36-28-0)31330.484
2005•NFC East (36-28-0)32320.500
2016AFC East (36-28-0)33310.516
2010AFC East (36-28-0)33310.516
2015NFC South (36-28-0)33310.516
2010NFC South (36-28-0)33310.516
2004AFC North (36-28-0)34300.531
2005AFC West (36-28-0)34300.531
2011NFC North (36-28-0)35290.547
2015AFC East (36-28-0)36280.563
2003AFC East (36-28-0)37270.578

—Ian Allan