Fantasy Index

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Factoid

Looking for an upset

Will a road team win this weekend?

The four home teams look like pretty solid favorites this week, but if form holds a road team will pull an upset on Wild Card Weekend. In the last 15 years, at least one road team has won in all but three years.

Home teams haven’t tended to be dominant at this stage. Overall they’re just 34-26 since the league moved to eight divisions in 2002.

ROAD TEAMS WINNING ON WILD CARD WEEKEND
YearRoadHomeScore
2002AtlantaGreen Bay27-7
2003TennesseeBaltimore20-17
2004NY JetsSan Diego20-17 (OT)
2004St. LouisSeattle27-20
2004MinnesotaGreen Bay31-17
2005• PittsburghCincinnati31-17
2005WashingtonTampa Bay17-10
2005CarolinaNY Giants23-0
2006--------
2007JacksonvillePittsburgh31-29
2007• NY GiantsTampa Bay24-14
2008BaltimoreMiami27-9
2008PhiladelphiaMinnesota26-14
2009NY JetsCincinnati24-14
2009BaltimoreNew England33-14
2010NY JetsIndianapolis17-16
2010BaltimoreKansas City30-7
2010• Green BayPhiladelphia21-16
2011--------
2012SeattleWashington24-14
2013San DiegoCincinnati27-10
2013New OrleansPhiladelphia26-24
2013San FranciscoGreen Bay23-20
2014BaltimorePittsburgh30-17
2015Kansas CityHouston30-0
2015PittsburghCincinnati18-16
2015SeattleMinnesota10-9
2015Green BayWashington35-18
2016--------

In this chart above, the three teams going on to win Super Bowls are tagged with black dots.

This year, of course, is a little different. All of the home teams are favored by 6-8 points. Typically at this stage, you see a lot of 3-point favorites, which generally means the teams would be pretty even on a neutral field.

I don’t have complete gambling line information, but I found some of the numbers online. Since 2006, there have been nine teams favored by 5-9 points in the wild card round, and they’ve gone 7-2. One of the upsets was pulled by Tim Tebow and the Broncos, who were playing at home. The other was San Diego winning at Cincinnati four years ago.

The Chargers also lost one of these games as a big favorite at home – to the Jets in 2004, when Nate Kaeding kept missing field goals. But the upsets don’t tend to come as readily when teams are favored by 6-plus points.

So while it’s possible we’ll see an upset this weekend, I think it’s probably slightly more likely that the four home teams will hold serve.

FIRST ROUND: FAVORED BY 5-9 POINTS
YearFavoriteUnderdogScore
2006at Philadelphia (-6.5)NY Giants23-20
2011Pittsburgh (-7.5)at Denver23-29 (OT)
2012at Baltimore (-7.5)Indianapolis24-9
2013at Cincinnati (-6.5)San Diego10-27
2014at Dallas (-6.5)Detroit24-20
2014at Carolina (-5.5)Arizona27-16
2015Seattle (-5)at Minnesota10-9
2016at Green Bay (-5)NY Giants38-13
2016at Seattle (-8.5)Detroit26-6

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index