One of the key questions for wildcard weekend, I think, is whether Carolina can keep New Orleans’ running game under control. The Saints swept the regular-season series, and they did so by running the ball – 149 and 148 rushing yards in the two games, with 4 TDs.
But I don’t think it’s a given that Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram will run for a bunch of yards and touchdowns. I don’t even think it’s particularly likely. Carolina’s run defense is really good. Outside of those two earlier games, in fact, the Panthers were about the best run defense in the league. They allowed an average of 79 rushing yards in their other 14 games, with just 3 TD runs. They’ve got all those big defensive linemen, and they’ve got the best run-and-pursue linebackers in the league – allowed only 3.7 yards per attempt in those other 14 games.
| CAROLINA'S RUN DEFENSE | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opp. | Result | Att | Yds | Avg | TD |
| at S.F. | W 23-3 | 15 | 51 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Buff. | W 9-3 | 23 | 69 | 3.0 | 0 |
| N.O. | L 13-34 | 27 | 149 | 5.5 | 1 |
| at N.E. | W 33-30 | 19 | 80 | 4.2 | 1 |
| at Det. | W 27-24 | 15 | 50 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Phil. | L 23-28 | 27 | 101 | 3.7 | 0 |
| at Chi. | L 3-17 | 26 | 68 | 2.6 | 0 |
| at T.B. | W 17-3 | 22 | 85 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Atl. | W 20-17 | 18 | 53 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Mia. | W 45-32 | 17 | 100 | 5.9 | 1 |
| at NYJ | W 35-27 | 26 | 109 | 4.2 | 0 |
| at N.O. | L 21-31 | 28 | 148 | 5.3 | 3 |
| Minn. | W 31-24 | 27 | 100 | 4.8 | 0 |
| G.B. | W 31-24 | 19 | 120 | 6.3 | 0 |
| T.B. | W 22-19 | 24 | 66 | 2.8 | 0 |
| at Atl. | L 10-22 | 26 | 60 | 2.3 | 0 |
I’m not arguing that we should all be trying to avoid these backs. They’re really good. Kamara in particular is hard to keep off the stat sheet, with his huge role in the passing offense.
But my hunch is the Panthers won’t let New Orleans simply pound it for 140-plus rushing yards again. They’ve got the personnel to slow down that run game, and I think they’ll do that.
If it plays out this way, then I think we’ll see Drew Brees doing a lot more than he’s been doing in most of their games. Brees has had an off year statistically, averaging only 271 passing yards and throwing only 23 TDs – under 1.5 TDs passes per game. But this looks like a week where Brees might turn back the clock and put up about 300 yards and a couple of touchdowns.
—Ian Allan