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Fantasy Index Weekly

Championship Preview: New England Patriots

Prohibitive favorites will have some top fantasy options

We published the season's final issue of Fantasy Index Weekly last week. But there are still four NFL teams playing, and fantasy playoff leagues that will require teams to start players in those games. So over the rest of this week, we'll take a look at the final four teams, and their fantasy prospects. First up are the (heavy) favorites, the New England Patriots.

The Patriots are favored by 9 points over Jacksonville, with an over-under of 47 (suggesting about a 28-19 game). That's usually a good starting point for expectations. Right now, weather doesn't look like a real concern -- long-range weekend forecast calls for 48-degree temperatures and only about a 20 percent chance of rain.

If the Patriots do score in the high 20s, they'll probably finish with at least 3 TDs. Dipping back into the season, they've scored at least 3 TDs in four straight games and seven of their last nine. The last time they scored fewer than 3 TDs at home was against Atlanta, way back in Week 7.

These teams last faced each other early in the 2015 season, a 51-17 New England win. Tom Brady threw for 358 yards and 2 TDs in that one, while LeGarrette Blount scored 3 TDs. Pretty much ancient history; the Jaguars went 5-11 that season, and their defense is a lot better now. These teams have faced each other three times in the playoffs, once the last time the Jaguars made the postseason (a 31-20 Patriots win in the Divisional round after the 2007 season), once after the 1998 season (a 25-10 Jacksonville win in the Wild Card round) and once after the 1996 season (when Drew Bledsoe beat Mark Brunell in the AFC Championship by a 20-6 score).

QUARTERBACK: Tom Brady is the best quarterback playing this weekend by a comically large margin. Had either Drew Brees or Ben Roethlisberger won last week, there'd be some discussion, at least. But Brady has more Super Bowl rings than the other three quarterbacks playing this weekend have combined playoff starts, so there's a huge advantage in not only ability but also simple knowledge that he'll be unaffected by the pressure or spotlight of being within shouting distance of the Super Bowl. These are uncharted waters for the other three passers.

Jacksonville gave some good quarterbacks really bad games during the regular season. But it's been hit or miss in the last 10, shutting down a lot of bad quarterbacks, but giving up respectable production to the rest. The Browns, Colts, Texans, Titans and Bills all scored 15 or fewer points in that span. But most of those were in Jacksonville, and those offenses (and quarterbacks) aren't remotely similar to New England's. In the other five games (Chargers, Cardinals, Seahawks, 49ers and Steelers), Jacksonville surrendered 18 TDs; about 3.5 per game.

Jacksonville allowed just 4 TD passes in its first eight games, but 13 in its final eight games of the season. Quarterbacks from those first four better offenses referenced above all threw for 235-271 yards with multiple touchdowns, and then Ben Roethlisberger went off for 469 yards and 5 TDs last week. Another shootout along those lines is pretty unlikely, but we're thinking Brady finishes with above-average numbers -- say 260-270 yards and 2-plus TDs. Brady looked old at times down the stretch, like at Miami and for much of the Pittsburgh and Jets games. But he reminded everyone against Tennessee that he's plenty capable of putting up big numbers. This matchup isn't nearly as favorable, but the Jaguars haven't been quite as tough of late. They might also be without safety Tashaun Gipson, who suffered a foot injury against Pittsburgh.

Two of the other three passers this week (Bortles and Keenum) have better statistical matchups. But unlikely they'll finish with comparable numbers to Brady.

RUNNING BACK: The Patriots ranked 10th in rushing during the season, while Jacksonville wasn't as good defending the run (21st) as the pass (1st). So maybe New England makes a little more effort than usual to work the run and avoid that talented secondary. But Jacksonville's run defense was a lot better in the second half of the season, after acquiring Marcell Dareus (99 yards per game in their last nine) than before that trade (139 yards per game in the first seven). It's at least an average run defense, and New England doesn't have a dominant ground game. Mostly New England's backfield is intriguing for the way its backs are involved as receivers. It starts with Dion Lewis who's been pretty awesome with Rex Burkhead out. The last three games, Lewis has put up 133-153 total yards in all of them, averaging 95 rushing and 48 receiving yards, with 4 TDs. Burkhead was close to playing last week and will likely return, but Lewis seems to have earned the primary role, with Burkhead probably more of a change-of-pace and in goal-line situations. Last week Brandon Bolden scored a short touchdown, and might get those chances again if Burkhead isn't available.

James White scored twice last week; he'll handle at least some passing situations. But keep in mind that against Tennessee he touched the ball only 8 times, generating 40 total yards while playing 40 percent of the snaps. That's consecutive playoff games with multiple touchdowns for White (including Super Bowl LI), but he'll need to make an impact on a lot fewer touches than Lewis. (Some officiating crews would probably have overturned one of his touchdowns last week.) If he doesn't score, White might not have a big enough role to help fantasy teams.

WIDE RECEIVER: Tom Brady threw for 337 yards on 53 attempts last week, the recipe against a 26th-ranked Titans pass defense. But New England's passing game isn't built around forcing the ball into any one wide receiver, so Brandin Cooks (3 for 32) disappointed, while Danny Amendola (11 for 112) had his best game all season. During the season Cooks averaged 68 yards per game and Amendola 44, so unlikely we'll see a repeat of that one; those numbers are more in line with what to expect. Brady won't throw as often or for as many yards in this matchup. Chris Hogan is healthy; he played over 80 percent of the snaps last week. He caught only 1 pass on 4 targets, though it at least went for a touchdown.The Jaguars allowed only 8 TDs to wide receivers, but 7 of them were in the last six games (and Pittsburgh threw 4 to the position last week).

TIGHT END: Rob Gronkowski has scored in six straight playoff games, and prior to not catching a pass in the finale he was averaging 83 yards per game, with 8 TDs in 13 games. Jacksonville allowed nearly as many touchdowns to tight ends (5) as wide receivers (8) during the season. He caught 4 balls for 101 yards in the 2015 meeting. Reasonable chance Jacksonville will have as much difficulty covering him as other teams.

KICKER: The better kickers tend to come from teams that win, and there's no team more likely to win this week than New England. Stephen Gostkowski averaged nearly 10 kicking points during the season, and while Jacksonville allowed under 6 kicking points per game, they allowed 63 in their six losses -- 10.5 per game. Gostkowski kicked nothing but extra points last week, but he still looks like the week's best bet.

DEFENSE / SPECIAL TEAMS: It's a favorable situation for the Patriots Defense. Blake Bortles didn't have any sacks or turnovers last week, helped by a game script that featured Jacksonville jumping out to a 21-0 lead. If you believe things will go as well for Jacksonville at Foxborough, by all means stay away from the Patriots. More likely, though, the Jaguars will be playing from behind, and Bortles will spend time under duress from a defense that sacked Marcus Mariota 8 times last week. Not that Bortles was as strong a matchup this season as he's been in the past. The team's run-centric offense saw him get sacked only 24 times (better than average) while throwing 13 interceptions (average). But again, in the team's six losses, he was sacked 14 times and threw 10 of his interceptions; much more likely to have to force some things. Jacksonville lost 10 fumbles during the season, worse than average. New England tied for 6th in sacks (42) and was slightly below-average in turnovers (6 fumbles, 12 interceptions), but if the game goes how we're thinking, good chance they get a couple of takeaways.

Player projections are below; at the end of the week, after all four teams have been analyzed, we'll see how the rankings shake out (but there will be a lot of Patriots at the top).

NEW ENGLAND PLAYER PROJECTIONS
PosPlayerRecRunYardsTDPoints
QBBrady052752.222.6
TEGronkowski750750.711.7
RBLewis2055750.510.5
PKGostkowski00009.0
WRCooks540540.357.5
RBBurkhead1030400.46.4
WRHogan400400.356.1
D/STPatriots0000.186.0
WRAmendola420420.155.1
RBWhite2410350.255.0
TEHollister5050.020.9
RBGillislee0550.050.8
RBDevelin0220.010.4
RBBolden0220.020.3
QBHoyer0000.010.1
WRSlater00000.0

—Andy Richardson

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