While there's a clear favorite in the AFC, Sunday's NFC title game could go either way. The Vikings are favored by 3 points (suggesting if this game were in Minnesota, they'd be about a 6-point favorite), but the over-under of just 38 is about the lowest you'll ever see, indicating points will be at a premium. One big play or two could be the difference in what should be a low-scoring, defensive battle. During the season, the Vikings were ranked No. 1 in both yards and points allowed. That's only slightly better than the Eagles, who were 4th in both categories.
Looks very likely to be a 20-17 type of game, and that could result in some lesser fantasy performances -- lesser than New England players, certainly, and maybe lesser than Jacksonville, too. Weather doesn't look like it will be a factor, with the early forecast suggesting temperatures in the mid-40s and just a 10 percent chance of rain, with winds about 10 mph.
These teams last met during the 2016 season, and it was low-scoring: a 21-10 Eagles win, also in Philadelphia. They've faced each other three times in the playoffs, and the Eagles won all three: 26-14 after the 2008 season, 27-14 after the 2004 season and 31-16 after the 1980 season. Those latter two Eagles teams advanced to the Super Bowl, the franchise's only appearances in that game (both losses).
QUARTERBACK: The Eagles would certainly be favored if they had Carson Wentz at quarterback, but the matchup would be tough for him, too. It's even more daunting for Nick Foles, who doesn't have Wentz's arm or playmaking ability. The Vikings allowed just 208 passing yards per game during the season, and a league-low 13 TD passes. They shut Drew Brees and the Saints out for nearly three quarters on Sunday, and Brees is far, far above Foles as a passer. Foles threw 4 TDs against the Giants, but best to ignore that performance against a sorry group that allowed a league-worst 32 TD passes (more than twice as many as Minnesota). In his other two complete games (Oakland and Atlanta last week), Foles averaged 205 passing yards and threw 1 TD. That's who he is, and about what to look for (at best) in this matchup. In both of those earlier contests, the game plan protected Foles with a lot of short, safe passes. Look for more of the same. Foles faced the Vikings (while with the Rams) two years ago, throwing for 168 yards and no touchdowns in a 21-18 overtime loss.
RUNNING BACK: The Vikings had the league's 2nd-ranked run defense, allowing just 84 yards per game (only the Eagles themselves were better). Minnesota had the one inexplicable meltdown game against Carolina (216 yards and 3 TDs), perhaps thrown off by the added dimension of the league's most dangerous running quarterback. But this defense didn't allow more than 115 rushing yards in any other game, and just 7 TDs in those games, as well. It also just put the clamps on arguably the league's best rushing offense, New Orleans (5th, but other top-5 ground games got far more out of their quarterback). Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram combined to carry it 21 times for just 68 yards.
Moreover, Philadelphia will likely use a committee. Jay Ajayi is the lead back, and he was about a yard and a half per carry better during the season (5.8) than LeGarrette Blount (4.4). Blount wasn't even that good down the stretch, at 3.3 or worse in five of his last six (including 2.1 against Atlanta), but the Eagles apparently don't want to overwork Ajayi. He played only 43 percent of the snaps against the Falcons, carrying 15 times for 54 yards (Blount was at 9 for 19 with a touchdown). Ajayi is definitely the more talented back, but Blount could again get about a third of the carries, and Corey Clement will also be involved. Clement played about a quarter of the snaps last week; he's the best pass catcher of the three. He caught 5 balls for 31 yards, while Ajayi caught 3 for 44. Passes to running backs should again be part of the game plan against Minnesota's tough defensive front.
So all three will play, and they'll probably combine for no more than 70-80 rushing yards. As the likely leading rusher, and factoring in his involvement as a receiver, Ajayi is the best bet. But with Blount getting some carries and Clement taking some passing downs, and given the matchup, it will be difficult for any to finish with good numbers.
WIDE RECEIVER: Minnesota allowed only 9 TDs to wide receivers during the season. Philadelphia threw 20, but Foles threw only 2 of them -- against a bad Giants defense that was without both of its starting cornerbacks. In Foles' other two full games, Alshon Jeffery was shut out completely against Oakland, then caught 4 balls for 61 yards last week. Nelson Agholor caught 7 balls for 59 yards in the two games combined, while Torrey Smith was at 4 for 44. Passes to running backs and tight ends were far more common, and that will likely be the case against Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes. Jeffery averaged 56 yards and caught 9 TDs during the season, but nearly all of that came with Wentz at quarterback. Agholor was similar (48 yards per game, also with 9 TDs), but only one of those scores came with Foles playing. Smith went over 30 yards just three times all season; off far more than on even before Wentz got hurt. If you're in a playoff league where you can use players only once, best to avoid Eagles wideouts entirely in hopes of maybe using them in a Super Bowl matchup with New England.
TIGHT END: Philadlephia's best fantasy option will probably be Zach Ertz. In Nick Foles' three complete games, Ertz has caught 18 passes for 169 yards and 1 TD. Just 3 for 32 against Atlanta, but his 5 targets were tied for the team lead. Foles has thrown as many touchdowns to tight ends Ertz and Trey Burton (2) as wide receivers. But with Ertz healthy, Burton played only 14 snaps against Atlanta and didn't catch a pass (just 1 target). Minnesota allowed only 3 TDs to tight ends all season, however, and the last of those was in Week 5. So not a great matchup for Ertz, either, but as he's likely as any of the wideouts to lead the team in targets, catches, yards and touchdowns. Also on his behalf, Minnesota's schedule was very thin on difference-making tight ends. Best were probably Eric Ebron and Vernon Davis (and Davis caught 7 balls for 76 yards). Brent Celek caught his only target last week (but is primarily a blocker in the offense).
KICKER: The matchup isn't great for Jake Elliott, with the Vikings being No. 1 in scoring defense. But they did give up 27 field goals, which was an average number; they were one of only two teams to allow at least 6 more field goals than extra points. Elliott missed an extra point last week but nailed 3 field goals, and it's the type of game that could feature more field goals than extra points. In Foles three full games, Elliott has scored 10, 7 and 9 points.
DEFENSE: Case Keenum has been pretty good at avoiding sacks and turnovers. On the season he threw just 7 interceptions and took 22 sacks in 14 games, then threw 1 pick and took 2 sacks last week. He'll take some chances by putting balls up for grabs on occasion; last week's turnover was awful, and he had another throw or two where he was lucky to avoid a turnover (overshadowed, of course, by the perfect throw to win the game). But statistically, not a great matchup. Neither was Matt Ryan, though, and the Eagles sacked him 3 times last week; on the year they were just 15th in sacks but 4th in takeaways. They also scored 5 touchdowns, and that's long been a strength: 5 a year ago, and 7 the year before that. One of the top 2 teams (along with Jacksonville) at turning opponents' mistakes into touchdowns.
PHILADELPHIA PLAYER PROJECTIONS | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pos | Player | Rec | Run | Yards | TD | Points |
QB | Foles | 205 | 5 | 210 | 1.10 | 15.2 |
TE | Ertz | 63 | 0 | 63 | 0.40 | 8.7 |
RB | Ajayi | 10 | 45 | 55 | 0.35 | 7.6 |
PK | Elliott | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 7.0 |
D/ST | Eagles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.18 | 6.3 |
WR | Jeffery | 47 | 0 | 47 | 0.20 | 5.9 |
WR | Agholor | 37 | 5 | 42 | 0.15 | 5.1 |
RB | Blount | 3 | 25 | 28 | 0.25 | 4.3 |
RB | Clement | 25 | 10 | 35 | 0.05 | 3.8 |
WR | Hollins | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.10 | 1.3 |
WR | Smith | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0.10 | 1.1 |
RB | Barner | 5 | 5 | 10 | 0.01 | 1.1 |
TE | Celek | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0.02 | 0.6 |
TE | Burton | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0.01 | 0.6 |
--Andy Richardson