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Strength of schedule analysis

More parity than usual in 2018 schedules

On Wednesday I submitted some numbers suggesting that strength of schedule played more of a role in 2017 than in typical seasons, with the teams in the two South Divisions affected by out-of-whack schedules. For the upcoming season (the one starting in nine months) the early numbers suggest the opposite will be true.

The Packers project to play the hardest schedule in 2018, but it’s not a schedule that typically would come in at No. 1. Their opponents finished with a combined record of 138-118 in 2017. In the last 10 years, 46 other teams have entered seasons projecting to play harder schedules.

HARDEST SCHEDULES, LAST 10 YEARS
YearTeamWLTPct
2009Miami1521040.594
2009Carolina1511041.592
2009New England1511050.590
2009Atlanta1501051.588
2009Tampa Bay1481071.580
2017Denver1471072.578
2015Pittsburgh1471072.578
2014Oakland1481080.578
2017Kansas City1471081.576
2014Denver1461100.570
2009Buffalo1461100.570
2017LA Chargers1451101.568
2009NY Jets1451101.568
2017Oakland1441111.564
2014St. Louis1441111.564
2015Cincinnati1441120.563
2014San Francisco1441120.563
2014San Diego1441120.563
2017Buffalo1431121.561
2015San Francisco1431121.561
2014Seattle1431121.561
2015Seattle1421122.559
2014Kansas City1431130.559
2015Arizona1421131.557
2009New Orleans1421131.557
2016Atlanta1421140.555
2016San Francisco1421140.555
2011Carolina1421140.555
2015St. Louis1411141.553
2016Los Angeles1411150.551
2017Miami1401160.547
2016New Orleans1401160.547
2014Arizona1401160.547
2012NY Giants1401160.547
2010Houston1401160.547
2010Tennessee1401160.547
2015Kansas City1391161.545
2015Oakland1391161.545
2017Washington1381162.543
2016Seattle1391170.543
2016Tampa Bay1391170.543
2015Cleveland1381162.543
2013Carolina1381162.543
2012Denver1391170.543
2010Dallas1391170.543
2015Denver1381171.541
2018Green Bay1381180.539
2015Minnesota1381180.539
2015Baltimore1371172.539
2013St. Louis1371172.539
2013New Orleans1371172.539
2013Detroit1381180.539
2010Cincinnati1381180.539
2018Detroit1371190.535
2018New Orleans1371190.535
2017NY Giants1351174.535
2017NY Jets1371190.535
2013Baltimore1371190.535
2011Buffalo1371190.535
2010Jacksonville1371190.535
2009Philadelphia1371190.535

Similarly, the Houston Texans project to play the easiest schedule next year, but it’s not a schedule that’s quite as easy as what you might expect. In each of the last 10 years, there has been at least one team with a schedule that projected to be easier.

EASIEST SCHEDULES, LAST 10 YEARS
YearTeamWLTPct
2015Atlanta1041502.410
2009Chicago1051492.414
2015Indianapolis1061491.416
2015Houston1061482.418
2009Minnesota1071481.420
2017Indianapolis1071463.424
2015Tampa Bay1081462.426
2009Green Bay1091461.428
2015New Orleans1091452.430
2014Indianapolis1101460.430
2013Denver1101460.430
2015Carolina1111450.434
2009Pittsburgh1101442.434
2015Tennessee1111441.436
2014Tennessee1121440.438
2009Baltimore1111432.438
2017Tennessee1111423.439
2017Jacksonville1111423.439
2014Houston1131430.441
2011Arizona1131430.441
2009Arizona1131430.441
2009San Francisco1131421.443
2010Arizona1141420.445
2017Cincinnati1151410.449
2010St. Louis1151410.449
2009Cleveland1141402.449
2018Houston1161400.453
2017Minnesota1151392.453
2017Pittsburgh1151392.453
2014Jacksonville1161400.453
2012New England1161400.453
2010Seattle1161400.453
2010San Diego1161400.453
2017Seattle1151383.455
2017Houston1151383.455
2016Green Bay1171390.457
2013San Diego1171390.457
2011Baltimore1171390.457
2010San Francisco1171390.457
2009Seattle1171390.457
2017Baltimore1171372.461
2016Chicago1181380.461
2016NY Giants1181380.461
2014Baltimore1181380.461
2013Indianapolis1171372.461
2015Jacksonville1181371.463
2018Tennessee1191370.465
2016Cincinnati1191370.465
2016Dallas1191370.465
2016Detroit1191370.465
2014NY Giants1191370.465
2014Cleveland1191370.465
2011San Francisco1191370.465
2009Cincinnati1191370.465
2009St. Louis1191370.465

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index