On Wednesday I submitted some numbers suggesting that strength of schedule played more of a role in 2017 than in typical seasons, with the teams in the two South Divisions affected by out-of-whack schedules. For the upcoming season (the one starting in nine months) the early numbers suggest the opposite will be true.
The Packers project to play the hardest schedule in 2018, but it’s not a schedule that typically would come in at No. 1. Their opponents finished with a combined record of 138-118 in 2017. In the last 10 years, 46 other teams have entered seasons projecting to play harder schedules.
HARDEST SCHEDULES, LAST 10 YEARS | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | W | L | T | Pct |
2009 | Miami | 152 | 104 | 0 | .594 |
2009 | Carolina | 151 | 104 | 1 | .592 |
2009 | New England | 151 | 105 | 0 | .590 |
2009 | Atlanta | 150 | 105 | 1 | .588 |
2009 | Tampa Bay | 148 | 107 | 1 | .580 |
2017 | Denver | 147 | 107 | 2 | .578 |
2015 | Pittsburgh | 147 | 107 | 2 | .578 |
2014 | Oakland | 148 | 108 | 0 | .578 |
2017 | Kansas City | 147 | 108 | 1 | .576 |
2014 | Denver | 146 | 110 | 0 | .570 |
2009 | Buffalo | 146 | 110 | 0 | .570 |
2017 | LA Chargers | 145 | 110 | 1 | .568 |
2009 | NY Jets | 145 | 110 | 1 | .568 |
2017 | Oakland | 144 | 111 | 1 | .564 |
2014 | St. Louis | 144 | 111 | 1 | .564 |
2015 | Cincinnati | 144 | 112 | 0 | .563 |
2014 | San Francisco | 144 | 112 | 0 | .563 |
2014 | San Diego | 144 | 112 | 0 | .563 |
2017 | Buffalo | 143 | 112 | 1 | .561 |
2015 | San Francisco | 143 | 112 | 1 | .561 |
2014 | Seattle | 143 | 112 | 1 | .561 |
2015 | Seattle | 142 | 112 | 2 | .559 |
2014 | Kansas City | 143 | 113 | 0 | .559 |
2015 | Arizona | 142 | 113 | 1 | .557 |
2009 | New Orleans | 142 | 113 | 1 | .557 |
2016 | Atlanta | 142 | 114 | 0 | .555 |
2016 | San Francisco | 142 | 114 | 0 | .555 |
2011 | Carolina | 142 | 114 | 0 | .555 |
2015 | St. Louis | 141 | 114 | 1 | .553 |
2016 | Los Angeles | 141 | 115 | 0 | .551 |
2017 | Miami | 140 | 116 | 0 | .547 |
2016 | New Orleans | 140 | 116 | 0 | .547 |
2014 | Arizona | 140 | 116 | 0 | .547 |
2012 | NY Giants | 140 | 116 | 0 | .547 |
2010 | Houston | 140 | 116 | 0 | .547 |
2010 | Tennessee | 140 | 116 | 0 | .547 |
2015 | Kansas City | 139 | 116 | 1 | .545 |
2015 | Oakland | 139 | 116 | 1 | .545 |
2017 | Washington | 138 | 116 | 2 | .543 |
2016 | Seattle | 139 | 117 | 0 | .543 |
2016 | Tampa Bay | 139 | 117 | 0 | .543 |
2015 | Cleveland | 138 | 116 | 2 | .543 |
2013 | Carolina | 138 | 116 | 2 | .543 |
2012 | Denver | 139 | 117 | 0 | .543 |
2010 | Dallas | 139 | 117 | 0 | .543 |
2015 | Denver | 138 | 117 | 1 | .541 |
2018 | Green Bay | 138 | 118 | 0 | .539 |
2015 | Minnesota | 138 | 118 | 0 | .539 |
2015 | Baltimore | 137 | 117 | 2 | .539 |
2013 | St. Louis | 137 | 117 | 2 | .539 |
2013 | New Orleans | 137 | 117 | 2 | .539 |
2013 | Detroit | 138 | 118 | 0 | .539 |
2010 | Cincinnati | 138 | 118 | 0 | .539 |
2018 | Detroit | 137 | 119 | 0 | .535 |
2018 | New Orleans | 137 | 119 | 0 | .535 |
2017 | NY Giants | 135 | 117 | 4 | .535 |
2017 | NY Jets | 137 | 119 | 0 | .535 |
2013 | Baltimore | 137 | 119 | 0 | .535 |
2011 | Buffalo | 137 | 119 | 0 | .535 |
2010 | Jacksonville | 137 | 119 | 0 | .535 |
2009 | Philadelphia | 137 | 119 | 0 | .535 |
Similarly, the Houston Texans project to play the easiest schedule next year, but it’s not a schedule that’s quite as easy as what you might expect. In each of the last 10 years, there has been at least one team with a schedule that projected to be easier.
EASIEST SCHEDULES, LAST 10 YEARS | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | W | L | T | Pct |
2015 | Atlanta | 104 | 150 | 2 | .410 |
2009 | Chicago | 105 | 149 | 2 | .414 |
2015 | Indianapolis | 106 | 149 | 1 | .416 |
2015 | Houston | 106 | 148 | 2 | .418 |
2009 | Minnesota | 107 | 148 | 1 | .420 |
2017 | Indianapolis | 107 | 146 | 3 | .424 |
2015 | Tampa Bay | 108 | 146 | 2 | .426 |
2009 | Green Bay | 109 | 146 | 1 | .428 |
2015 | New Orleans | 109 | 145 | 2 | .430 |
2014 | Indianapolis | 110 | 146 | 0 | .430 |
2013 | Denver | 110 | 146 | 0 | .430 |
2015 | Carolina | 111 | 145 | 0 | .434 |
2009 | Pittsburgh | 110 | 144 | 2 | .434 |
2015 | Tennessee | 111 | 144 | 1 | .436 |
2014 | Tennessee | 112 | 144 | 0 | .438 |
2009 | Baltimore | 111 | 143 | 2 | .438 |
2017 | Tennessee | 111 | 142 | 3 | .439 |
2017 | Jacksonville | 111 | 142 | 3 | .439 |
2014 | Houston | 113 | 143 | 0 | .441 |
2011 | Arizona | 113 | 143 | 0 | .441 |
2009 | Arizona | 113 | 143 | 0 | .441 |
2009 | San Francisco | 113 | 142 | 1 | .443 |
2010 | Arizona | 114 | 142 | 0 | .445 |
2017 | Cincinnati | 115 | 141 | 0 | .449 |
2010 | St. Louis | 115 | 141 | 0 | .449 |
2009 | Cleveland | 114 | 140 | 2 | .449 |
2018 | Houston | 116 | 140 | 0 | .453 |
2017 | Minnesota | 115 | 139 | 2 | .453 |
2017 | Pittsburgh | 115 | 139 | 2 | .453 |
2014 | Jacksonville | 116 | 140 | 0 | .453 |
2012 | New England | 116 | 140 | 0 | .453 |
2010 | Seattle | 116 | 140 | 0 | .453 |
2010 | San Diego | 116 | 140 | 0 | .453 |
2017 | Seattle | 115 | 138 | 3 | .455 |
2017 | Houston | 115 | 138 | 3 | .455 |
2016 | Green Bay | 117 | 139 | 0 | .457 |
2013 | San Diego | 117 | 139 | 0 | .457 |
2011 | Baltimore | 117 | 139 | 0 | .457 |
2010 | San Francisco | 117 | 139 | 0 | .457 |
2009 | Seattle | 117 | 139 | 0 | .457 |
2017 | Baltimore | 117 | 137 | 2 | .461 |
2016 | Chicago | 118 | 138 | 0 | .461 |
2016 | NY Giants | 118 | 138 | 0 | .461 |
2014 | Baltimore | 118 | 138 | 0 | .461 |
2013 | Indianapolis | 117 | 137 | 2 | .461 |
2015 | Jacksonville | 118 | 137 | 1 | .463 |
2018 | Tennessee | 119 | 137 | 0 | .465 |
2016 | Cincinnati | 119 | 137 | 0 | .465 |
2016 | Dallas | 119 | 137 | 0 | .465 |
2016 | Detroit | 119 | 137 | 0 | .465 |
2014 | NY Giants | 119 | 137 | 0 | .465 |
2014 | Cleveland | 119 | 137 | 0 | .465 |
2011 | San Francisco | 119 | 137 | 0 | .465 |
2009 | Cincinnati | 119 | 137 | 0 | .465 |
2009 | St. Louis | 119 | 137 | 0 | .465 |
—Ian Allan