A sportsbook in Las Vegas has released projected win totals for 2018 – the first on-the-record indication of how teams might perform in the upcoming season. And we can then engineer those numbers into the schedule, getting an idea of which offenses might benefit from easy schedule.
The Westgate Sportsbook has published its initial over-under win totals. They have the Patriots the highest, at 11-5. The Steelers and Eagles are a half-win back, while the Packers and Vikings are a game back (at 10-6).
Arizona and Cleveland are at the rear, each projected to win 5.5 games. That’s a half-win lower than the Jets and Dolphins.
Overall the projections look fine. I don’t see any that jump out as being silly. There’s a slight win inflation, with the 32 teams coming in 4 games above .500.
Looks like this …
PROJECTED WINS (Westgate Sportsbook) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
New England | 11 | 5 | 0 | .688 |
Philadelphia | 10 | 5 | 1 | .656 |
Pittsburgh | 10 | 5 | 1 | .656 |
Green Bay | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 |
Minnesota | 10 | 6 | 0 | .625 |
LA Rams | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
New Orleans | 9 | 6 | 1 | .594 |
Atlanta | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Carolina | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Jacksonville | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
LA Chargers | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
San Francisco | 9 | 7 | 0 | .563 |
Dallas | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
Houston | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
Kansas City | 8 | 7 | 1 | .531 |
Baltimore | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
Detroit | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
Oakland | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
Seattle | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
Tennessee | 8 | 8 | 0 | .500 |
Cincinnati | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
Denver | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
Washington | 7 | 9 | 0 | .438 |
Buffalo | 6 | 9 | 1 | .406 |
Chicago | 6 | 9 | 1 | .406 |
Indianapolis | 6 | 9 | 1 | .406 |
NY Giants | 6 | 9 | 1 | .406 |
Tampa Bay | 6 | 9 | 1 | .406 |
Miami | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 |
NY Jets | 6 | 10 | 0 | .375 |
Arizona | 5 | 10 | 1 | .344 |
Cleveland | 5 | 10 | 1 | .344 |
If we then take those wins and plug them into the 2018 schedule, the Texans, Patriots, Raiders and Chargers project to play the league’s easiest schedules.
Arizona, Tampa Bay and the Giants project to play the hardest schedules.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (projected wins) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Houston | 121 | 134 | 1 | .475 |
New England | 122 | 133 | 1 | .479 |
Oakland | 124 | 131 | 1 | .486 |
LA Chargers | 124 | 131 | 1 | .486 |
San Francisco | 126 | 130 | 0 | .492 |
NY Jets | 126 | 130 | 0 | .492 |
Green Bay | 126 | 129 | 1 | .494 |
Tennessee | 127 | 129 | 0 | .496 |
Jacksonville | 127 | 129 | 0 | .496 |
Cincinnati | 127 | 129 | 0 | .496 |
Baltimore | 127 | 129 | 0 | .496 |
Pittsburgh | 127 | 128 | 1 | .498 |
Indianapolis | 128 | 128 | 0 | .500 |
Miami | 128 | 127 | 1 | .502 |
Denver | 128 | 127 | 1 | .502 |
Atlanta | 129 | 127 | 0 | .504 |
Philadelphia | 129 | 126 | 1 | .506 |
Carolina | 129 | 126 | 1 | .506 |
Buffalo | 129 | 126 | 1 | .506 |
Dallas | 130 | 126 | 0 | .508 |
Minnesota | 130 | 125 | 1 | .510 |
Chicago | 130 | 125 | 1 | .510 |
Kansas City | 131 | 125 | 0 | .512 |
New Orleans | 132 | 124 | 0 | .516 |
LA Rams | 132 | 124 | 0 | .516 |
Detroit | 132 | 124 | 0 | .516 |
Cleveland | 132 | 124 | 0 | .516 |
Washington | 132 | 123 | 1 | .518 |
Seattle | 132 | 123 | 1 | .518 |
NY Giants | 133 | 122 | 1 | .521 |
Tampa Bay | 134 | 122 | 0 | .523 |
Arizona | 136 | 120 | 0 | .531 |
—Ian Allan