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Strength of schedule

Texans project to play league's easiest schedule

A sportsbook in Las Vegas has released projected win totals for 2018 – the first on-the-record indication of how teams might perform in the upcoming season. And we can then engineer those numbers into the schedule, getting an idea of which offenses might benefit from easy schedule.

The Westgate Sportsbook has published its initial over-under win totals. They have the Patriots the highest, at 11-5. The Steelers and Eagles are a half-win back, while the Packers and Vikings are a game back (at 10-6).

Arizona and Cleveland are at the rear, each projected to win 5.5 games. That’s a half-win lower than the Jets and Dolphins.

Overall the projections look fine. I don’t see any that jump out as being silly. There’s a slight win inflation, with the 32 teams coming in 4 games above .500.

Looks like this …

PROJECTED WINS (Westgate Sportsbook)
TeamWLTPct
New England1150.688
Philadelphia1051.656
Pittsburgh1051.656
Green Bay1060.625
Minnesota1060.625
LA Rams961.594
New Orleans961.594
Atlanta970.563
Carolina970.563
Jacksonville970.563
LA Chargers970.563
San Francisco970.563
Dallas871.531
Houston871.531
Kansas City871.531
Baltimore880.500
Detroit880.500
Oakland880.500
Seattle880.500
Tennessee880.500
Cincinnati790.438
Denver790.438
Washington790.438
Buffalo691.406
Chicago691.406
Indianapolis691.406
NY Giants691.406
Tampa Bay691.406
Miami6100.375
NY Jets6100.375
Arizona5101.344
Cleveland5101.344

If we then take those wins and plug them into the 2018 schedule, the Texans, Patriots, Raiders and Chargers project to play the league’s easiest schedules.

Arizona, Tampa Bay and the Giants project to play the hardest schedules.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (projected wins)
TeamWLTPct
Houston1211341.475
New England1221331.479
Oakland1241311.486
LA Chargers1241311.486
San Francisco1261300.492
NY Jets1261300.492
Green Bay1261291.494
Tennessee1271290.496
Jacksonville1271290.496
Cincinnati1271290.496
Baltimore1271290.496
Pittsburgh1271281.498
Indianapolis1281280.500
Miami1281271.502
Denver1281271.502
Atlanta1291270.504
Philadelphia1291261.506
Carolina1291261.506
Buffalo1291261.506
Dallas1301260.508
Minnesota1301251.510
Chicago1301251.510
Kansas City1311250.512
New Orleans1321240.516
LA Rams1321240.516
Detroit1321240.516
Cleveland1321240.516
Washington1321231.518
Seattle1321231.518
NY Giants1331221.521
Tampa Bay1341220.523
Arizona1361200.531

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index