The Patriots are trying to win their sixth Super Bowl, and strong chance they'll do it. They've got the better offense (if for no other reason than they've got a Hall of Fame quarterback), and their defense has performed better than its ranking for more than half a season. But it looks like it should be a competitive game, matched up with the regular season's best all-around team, and a below-average situation for their offense.
The Eagles ranked 4th in both yards and points allowed during the regular season, and they've followed that up by allowing a total of just 17 points in their two playoff games. One touchdown came after a muffed punt set the Falcons up inside the 20-yard-line, and the other came on a game-opening drive by the Vikings last week. Just 3 other points against Philadelphia in both games. It's a great defense, and no one should expect New England to just move up and down the field. The Patriots are favored by 5-6 points with an over-under of 48, suggesting a 27-21 type of game. That looks a little high. Philadelphia allowed more than 24 points just three times in its 18 games.
These teams last faced each other in Week 13 of the 2015 season, a 35-28 Eagles win. Tom Brady threw for 312 yards and 3 TDs in that game, while James White (1o for 115, TD) and Danny Amendola (7 for 62, TD) were the main receivers. Philadelphia is completely different now (Chip Kelly was that team's coach, Sam Bradford its quarterback). The Eagles scored 3 TDs on special teams and defense in that game, and New England doesn't typically give up many such plays. They met in Super Bowl XXXIX, too (a 24-21 Patriots win).
QUARTERBACK:
In fantasy terms (yards, touchdowns) it's at least an average situation for Tom Brady. The Eagles allowed 243 passing yards per game (18th) and 24 TD passes (tied for 18th-most). Matt Ryan and Case Keenum averaged 241 yards, and though each only threw 1 TD, that wasn't much different from their season averages. Brady's average during the season was better (286 yards and 2 TDs per game), and he's stepped it up in the playoffs, throwing for 290-plus in each game, with 5 TD passes. One game was against a bottom-10 Titans pass defense, but the other was Jacksonville's top-ranked group (much better than Philadelphia). Will be a surprise, it seems, if he doesn't throw for about 280 yards and at least 2 TDs. Maybe 3, with Philadelphia -- including the playoffs -- almost four times as likely to surrender touchdowns through the air (26) as on the ground (7).
While those numbers are high, we're not underestimating this defense. It's an opportunistic secondary (19 interceptions) and 15th-ranked pass rush (38 sacks), so all those yards didn't come easy. Opponents managed just a 79.5 passer rating, which is a bottom-10 number. The Eagles sacked Matt Ryan 3 times, and although they sacked Case Keenum only once, they recovered a fumble on that play; on another, game-changing hit (by former Patriot Chris Long) they caused an interception returned for a touchdown.
In short, few would dispute that Brady will be the better of the two quarterbacks -- more yards and touchdowns. But he's facing the more opportunistic defense; far more interceptions (19-12) and a similar pass rush (4 fewer sacks). Brady threw only 8 interceptions during the season and none in two playoff games; he won't make many mistakes. But he was sacked 35 times during the season and took 3 against Jacksonville. Philadelphia has the personnel to get pressure on him and maybe force a turnover or two. He'll be the far better fantasy option, but it doesn't mean this defense won't make things difficult for him at times.
RUNNING BACK:
The Eagles ranked No. 1 against the run in the regular season, allowing 79 yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry. Against this type of defense, New England won't necessarily even try to run the ball. They played five games during the season against teams ranked in the top 12 in run defense, and in only two of those did they call more than 20 running plays (and Philadelphia's run defense is even better).
| PATRIOTS VERSUS TOP-12 RUN DEFENSES | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Opp | Att | Yds | TD |
| Car. | 19 | 80 | 1 |
| Atl. | 36 | 162 | 0 |
| at Den | 29 | 99 | 1 |
| Oak. | 20 | 89 | 0 |
| at Pitt. | 19 | 77 | 2 |
They faced another top-12 run defense in Tennessee two weeks ago, calling just 23 running plays and 53 passes. So there probably won't be much rushing production, and what there is will be divided between three running backs. Dion Lewis should be the main runner. He averaged 143 total yards while featured the last two games of the season, with 4 TDs. He went for 141 against Tennessee and 66 against Jacksonville, catching 16 passes in those games. But Rex Burkhead will get a share of the work. He missed the last two games of the season with a knee injury, and also the first playoff game. He was active against the Jaguars, but evidently not healthy -- played only 3 snaps. With another two weeks between games, he should be at full health and play a little more, but it's also possible New England is more comfortable with Lewis right now. Burkhead's main role might be to carry it near the goal line (he's 15 pounds heavier than Lewis). Even James White, traditionally their passing-downs back, could be a factor near the goal line. He scored from a yard out against Jacksonville, also scored against Tennessee, and scored 3 TDs (2 run, 1 rec) and a 2-point conversion in last year's Super Bowl. It will definitely be a committee, in which Lewis should put up the most yards, but any one of the three could score (and rushing touchdowns don't look likely anyway). Mike Gillislee wasn't active against the Jaguars even with Burkhead not fully healthy; he'll probably be inactive again.
Part II (receivers, kicker and defense) coming tomorrow; Philadelphia preview on Thursday and Friday.
--Andy Richardson