With the Eagles having the league's best run defense, New England's offense will almost certainly emphasize the pass. That's covered in Part I of the preview. Now a look at the receivers who will be catching all of those balls. There are a number of possibilities.
The running backs, most notably Dion Lewis and James White, will be involved. We know that. But there should also be several good wideouts, and (health permitting) the game's best tight end out there catching passes, too.
WIDE RECEIVERS:
The Patriots will likely use three wide receivers on most plays: Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola. All three played at least three quarters of the snaps last week. That might have been influenced by Rob Gronkowski being sidelined, but all three played over 60 percent of the snaps in the pass-heavy game plan against Tennessee, and New England should use a similar approach next week.
Cooks looks like the No. 1, and he stepped up with a big game (6 for 100) against the Jaguars. That was just his second game over 100 yards this year, but he was solid, averaging 68 yards per game with 7 TDs (four in the final seven). He caught only 3 balls against Tennessee, but had 9 targets, 2nd among wideouts to Amendola. Hogan missed a good chunk of the season due to a shoulder injury, and though he's presumably fully healthy (he's playing nearly every snap) he hasn't seemed to reestablish a rapport with Tom Brady. The last two weeks he's caught 3 balls on 8 targets, for 24 yards and 1 TD. He might play more than Amendola, but is likely to be behind him for targets and catches.
Amendola had a minimal role in the regular season, averaging 44 yards per game with just 2 TDs. Only four times did he reach 50 yards (and that's with Hogan missing nearly half the season). But in the playoffs he's been targeted 22 times in two games, catching 18 of them for 196 yards and 2 TDs. That's a playoff trend: he caught 8 passes and a touchdown in last year's Super Bowl. So we're putting him higher than the season averages would suggest.
Phillip Dorsett had one of the biggest grabs in the AFC Championship, a 31-yard pickup that set up New England's second touchdown. But that was his only target, and he didn't even get on the field against Tennessee. Even in a pass-heavy game plan, he's unlikely to make any impact. Kenny Britt hasn't been active for either playoff game and no indication that will change.
It's a good situation for all of these wideouts in the sense it's much easier to pass on the Eagles than to run it. But of the 26 touchdowns thrown against them (including the postseason), just over half (14) went to wide receivers, and the Patriots are similar: 17 of 37 touchdowns thrown by them went to the position. If Brady throws 2 TDs, good chance only one goes to wide receiver (and about 50-50 they'll get 2 if he makes it up to 3 TDs).
TIGHT END:
Rob Gronkowski suffered a concussion against Jacksonville. With two weeks to clear the protocol, we're assuming he'll be fine and practicing fully when the team is in its game preparations next week. If his status comes into question, we'll re-work all the rankings. His absence would result in more snaps for Dwayne Allen and Jacob Hollister, but probably not a passing game role. Allen played over 60 percent of the snaps last week without being targeted. Hollister (who's more of a receiver; Allen primary blocks) saw one pass against Tennessee, then wasn't even active against Jacksonville.
If Gronkowski is available, he's the best bet to score. He caught 9 TDs and a 2-point conversion in his 16 games. Philadelphia allowed only 6 TDs to tight ends in its 18 games, but look how the best tight ends they faced along the way fared.
| TOP TIGHT ENDS VERSUS EAGLES | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | No | Yds | TD |
| Reed, Wash. | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Kelce, K.C. | 8 | 103 | 1 |
| Engram, NYG | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Henry, LAC | 2 | 16 | 1 |
| Reed, Wash. | 8 | 64 | 2 |
| Graham, Sea. | 3 | 26 | 1 |
| Engram, NYG | 8 | 87 | 0 |
| Rudolph, Minn. | 1 | 25 | 1 |
In eight games, all of those tight ends either caught 5 passes, or scored, or both. Gronkowski had scored in six straight postseason games prior to being knocked out of the Jacksonville contest.
KICKER:
Stephen Gostkowski averaged nearly 10 kicking points per game during the regular season. He's totaled just 11 in the two playoff games thus far, missing from 53 yards against the Titans. The Patriots are favored, and with kickers it's best to latch onto the one from the team likeliest to win. He's got the substantial experience edge, of course, over rookie Jake Elliott.
DEFENSE:
Nick Foles played out of his mind against Minnesota, and was solid against Atlanta. He hasn't turned it over in either game, and took only one sack in each. He completed over 75 percent of his passes in both contests. The pressure goes up in the Super Bowl, of course, but the New England Defense wasn't particularly opportunistic during the season: 12 interceptions and 6 fumble recoveries, ranking just 25th in takeaways. (None in either playoff game, either.) Things look more promising for sacks. New England had 42 during the season, and 11 in its two playoff games. Foles is average to slightly above-average in that regard; he's been sacked once per every 17 pass attempts during his career.
Touchdown potential doesn't look great, with New England scoring 1 (a Dion Lewis kickoff return) during the season and the Eagles allowing 2. But New England is probably slightly above-average on returns, with Lewis on kickoffs and Danny Amendola on punts. Amendola had a 20-yard punt return against Jacksonville, setting up the winning points.
| PATRIOTS PLAYER PROJECTIONS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Pass | Rec | Run | Tot | TD | Pts |
| QB | Brady | 282 | 0 | 2 | 284 | 2.40 | 23.8 |
| TE | Gronkowski | 0 | 66 | 0 | 66 | .72 | 10.9 |
| RB | Lewis | 0 | 23 | 54 | 77 | .26 | 9.3 |
| WR | Cooks | 0 | 57 | 1 | 58 | .43 | 8.4 |
| PK | Gostkowski | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .00 | 7.5 |
| WR | Amendola | 0 | 43 | 0 | 43 | .38 | 6.5 |
| RB | Burkhead | 0 | 20 | 20 | 40 | .30 | 5.8 |
| D/ST | Patriots | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .15 | 5.7 |
| WR | Hogan | 0 | 40 | 0 | 40 | .29 | 5.7 |
| RB | White | 0 | 26 | 13 | 38 | .27 | 5.4 |
| TE | Allen | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | .05 | .9 |
| WR | Dorsett | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | .02 | .4 |
| RB | Develin | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | .03 | .4 |
| RB | Bolden | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .01 | .2 |
| QB | Hoyer | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .00 | .2 |
| TE | Hollister | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .01 | .2 |
| WR | Britt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .01 | .2 |
| WR | Slater | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .00 | .0 |
| RB | Gillislee | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .00 | .0 |
--Andy Richardson