Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. (Both of them.) Sizing up Dak Prescott for the 2018 season. Kenyan Drake and Devin Funchess could be players on the rise. Looking at the relative values of LeVeon Bell, David Johnson and Jordan Howard.
Question 1
Way too early 2018 keeper/dynasty question: in a PPR league, please help me choose 4 of these 7 players (if it's not too complicated/annoying) where the number in parentheses represents the round of the draft forfeited by keeping that player. The choices are Dalvin Cook (1), Gurley (2), Melvin Gordon (4), Kenyan Drake (12), Jordy Nelson (12), Funchess (12) and Dak Prescott (16).
Jason Schuetz (Fort Collins, CO)
We’re not looking for the four best players. We’re looking for the four players most likely to outperform those draft positions. So Cook is out. At best he’s able to come back from the knee injury and perform at something close to the level he was playing at in September. If he can do that (which is possible) he might be worthy of a first-round pick. Of the players you list, he might be the third one I would select in a regular draft. Maybe he’s the player you end up selecting with that first-round pick. But no need to lock in on him now. Gurley is probably the No. 1 player overall, while Gordon would be chosen in the first or second round, so you keep both of them. Kenyan Drake maybe; he looked pretty good in the final month of the season. If it looks like the Dolphins are going to go with him as their No. 1 running back, he’ll be worth a lot more than a 12th-round pick. Similarly, Devin Funchess should be Carolina’s No. 1 wide receiver – worth a lot more than a 12th-round pick. Dak Prescott I think also gets in the discussion. Today – in early February – he’s probably a safer choice than either Drake or Funchess. He would cost only a 16th-round choice and should be either a starting-caliber quarterback (12-team league) or a good backup at that position. Unlikely that you would protect Nelson, I think. He’ll be 33 in May, and he seems to be falling off physically. I don’t think it’s realistic to expect him to get back to anything to the difference-making wide receiver he was back in 2015.
Question 2
In a TD-heavy dynasty league, I traded David Johnson for A.J. Green, Jordan Howard and Jack Doyle. I am thinking of offering Jordan Howard and Dak Prescott for Le’Veon Bell. Would you make that offer? If so, I have no QB so can pick any rookie QB in my draft plus others like Alex Smith, Case Keenum and Ryan Tannehill are available. Thoughts? I am not a Dak fan any longer due to the antiquated offense and lack of quality receivers
HOWIE FISHMAN (Hermosa Beach, CA)
Johnson and Bell look like pretty similar players. They’re both really good pass catchers. They’re the same size (both about 6-foot-1 and 225 pounds). Later this month they’ll both be 26. With Johnson, there might be more tread left on his tires; he’s got 1,000 fewer touches on his NFL odometer. Bell is the more likely of the two to break down; he’s had injuries in four of his five seasons in the pros. Arizona needs to get its offensive line fixed, which is a concern, but Johnson probably will be one of the half-dozen most productive pass-catching running backs in 2018. Mike McCoy (the new offensive coordinator for the Cardinals) has been around for a few years and has shown a tendency to use his running backs in that capacity. Danny Woodhead caught 80 passes in a McCoy offense in 2015. With Bell, there’s a better cast around him, assuming the contract issue is resolved. He’s been unable to land a monster contract from the Steelers, and there seems to be some growing tension between the two sides. If that situation blows up, with Bell signing a big contract from any number of lesser teams, it could really gut his value. So maybe the smart play is to just stick with Jordan Howard. He’s 3 years younger and is a good back. He’s a liability in the passing game (probably one of the worst half-dozen backs in the league as a receiver); maybe that’s an issue, with Chicago’s new coach, Matt Nagy, being an Andy Reid disciple – I assume they’ll want their backs catching plenty of passes. But you mention that you’re using more of a TD-heavy scoring system. There’s a chance that Dak Prescott will be a top-10 quarterback on most people’s boards come August, so I wouldn’t want to give him away as a trade throw-in right now.