The Patriots are favored by 4.5 points. On the one hand, that looks a little low in that they’ve been here many times before and have a lengthy history of being able to pull out playoff games – we’re looking at the best coach and best quarterback in league history.

If somebody’s going to implode before our very eyes, starring in a hundred thousand memes on Monday morning, it’s far more likely to be Nick Foles than Tom Brady.

But at the same time, this New England team isn’t as good as we’ve seen in the past. The Eagles might have the better offensive and defensive lines.

And while Belichick-Brady are gunning for their 6th Super Bowl title together, they haven’t tended to dominate in championship games.

This New England dynasty has played in seven Super Bowls. Believe it or not, in every one of those games, they’ve been either tied or behind in the fourth quarter. They were tied against the Rams and Eagles way back when; they’ve been behind in all five of their other appearances. The franchise has never won a Super Bowl comfortably.

Here are the numbers. The fourth quarter column shows not the score at the start of that quarter but the most unfavorable score (for New England) during the final period.

NEW ENGLAND SUPER BOWLS
YearOpponent4th QFinal
2001St. Louis17-17W 20-17
2003Carolina21-22W 32-29
2004Philadelphia14-14W 24-21
2007New York14-17L 14-17
2011New York17-21L 17-21
2014Seattle14-24W 28-24
2016Atlanta9-28W 34-28
2017Philadelphia?-??-?

I can’t guarantee that New England will once again be trailing or behind in the fourth quarter. But if it plays out that way yet again, almost everyone would love to have Philadelphia and those 4.5 points.

—Ian Allan