Fantasy Index

header banner img
OUR FANTASY BASEBALL MAGAZINE IS BACK! PRE-ORDER NOW
Win here.

Factoid

Alex Smith in Washington

Smith could thrive in Jay Gruden's offense

The 2017 season is in the rearview mirror (barely) so we can start looking forward to 2018. The Eagles are the Super Bowl champions, and if form holds, they’ll open the season at home in the league’s kickoff game. Possible opponents include the Falcons, Panthers, Texans, Colts and Vikings, as well as their three divisional opponents – Dallas, New York, Washington.

Should Washington get plugged into that game, it will give Alex Smith an opportunity to begin a second straight season with an upset win over the Super Bowl champs. (Smith, recall, led Kansas City to a shocking win at Foxborough back in September).

I find Smith to be an interesting possibility for the 2018 season. He’s got some ability – knows how to play the position – and he’s getting inserted in a quarterback-friendly system. Jay Gruden hasn’t been a huge success as a coach, but he likes to put the ball in the air. With the way he calls plays, Washington tends to rank in the top 10 in passing yards.

In the past three years, only five teams have passed for more yards than Washington. You might attribute some of that to Kirk Cousins’ passing ability. I assign more of it to the nature of the offense (I think Smith is probably pretty similar in talent/ability to Cousins).

Over the past three years, Washington has averaged 34 more passing yards per game than Kansas City.

PASSING YARDS (2015-2017)
Team201520162017Avg
New Orleans325329271308
New England301279289289
LA Chargers303274284287
Pittsburgh301274283286
Atlanta288310259286
Washington268309256278
Detroit279270279276
Arizona298277249275
Tampa Bay253260288267
Seattle254276249260
NY Giants281252230254
Philadelphia271237248252
Jacksonville277245232251
Baltimore278271202251
Oakland258259235251
Green Bay239278221246
Denver264245229246
Miami264232237245
Kansas City218245270244
Cincinnati257263212244
Indianapolis246281202243
Cleveland260231221237
NY Jets261228219236
Minnesota203257246235
Carolina242248207232
Houston255214228232
Chicago240259193231
San Francisco228198265230
Tennessee243233212229
Dallas230237208225
LA Rams183207251214
Buffalo225203193207

Key (I think) is whether Smith can let it rip in the red zone. I think he’s wired to avoid mistakes. Better to take the safe field goal rather than trying to jam in a throw that might result in an interception.

Smith did a better job last year of uncorking deep balls and throwing touchdowns, but historically he’s been one of the more conservative quarterbacks. I think that’s probably more on him than Andy Reid. I think that’s interesting, with Washington’s coaches last year quietly grumbling that Cousins at times was too conservative with his throws and decision making.

Over the past three years, Washington has averaged over 5 more touchdown passes per season than Kansas City. (So if I were guessing today, I would probably pencil in Smith for about 24-25 touchdowns.)

PASSING TOUCHDOWNS (2015-2017)
Team201520162017Avg
New England36323233.3
Green Bay31402532.0
New Orleans32382331.0
LA Chargers30332830.3
Seattle34233430.3
Pittsburgh26332929.3
Detroit33242928.7
Oakland34292328.7
Arizona35282128.0
NY Giants36262027.3
Washington30252727.3
Atlanta21382126.7
Jacksonville35242126.7
Carolina35212226.0
Philadelphia23163825.7
Tampa Bay22292625.7
Miami24272425.0
Cincinnati31182524.7
Houston29152824.0
Indianapolis26321323.7
NY Jets33161922.7
Tennessee25291422.7
Kansas City20192621.7
Dallas16252221.0
Baltimore21202020.3
Minnesota14202519.7
Denver19201919.3
Buffalo23171618.7
Chicago21191317.7
LA Rams11142817.7
San Francisco16211517.3
Cleveland20151516.7

If you want to blend those two above charts into more of a fantasy table, Washington grades out in the top 10, while Kansas City is below average. That’s using 1 point for every 20 passing yards and 4 for each TD pass.

On this chart, quarterback rushing yards aren’t factored in. Smith should help his cause in that regard. He averaged 24 rushing yards last year.

FANTASY PASSING POINTS (2015-2017)
Team201520162017Avg
New Orleans388.3414.9308.7370.6
New England384.6350.8359.0364.8
LA Chargers362.8351.3339.6351.2
Pittsburgh345.1350.9342.7346.2
Detroit355.2312.4339.5335.7
Atlanta314.1400.0291.3335.1
Arizona378.8333.3283.0331.7
Washington334.7347.4312.7331.6
Seattle339.1313.1335.0329.0
Green Bay315.3382.3276.6324.7
Tampa Bay290.1324.3334.4316.2
Oakland342.5322.9280.1315.1
NY Giants369.0305.4264.0312.8
Jacksonville361.4292.3269.8307.8
Philadelphia309.1253.9350.4304.4
Miami307.6293.8285.6295.7
Cincinnati329.2282.3269.3293.6
Carolina333.7282.1254.0289.9
Indianapolis300.4352.6213.3288.8
Kansas City254.7271.7320.3282.2
Baltimore306.5297.2241.8281.8
Houston320.0230.9294.2281.7
NY Jets340.5246.3251.1279.3
Tennessee294.7302.0225.7274.1
Denver286.8275.7259.4274.0
Minnesota218.3286.0296.5266.9
Dallas247.9290.0254.3264.0
Cleveland287.8244.7236.9256.4
Chicago276.2283.0206.3255.1
San Francisco246.3242.3271.8253.5
LA Rams190.6221.7313.2241.8
Buffalo272.0230.5218.3240.3

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index