The 2017 season is in the rearview mirror (barely) so we can start looking forward to 2018. The Eagles are the Super Bowl champions, and if form holds, they’ll open the season at home in the league’s kickoff game. Possible opponents include the Falcons, Panthers, Texans, Colts and Vikings, as well as their three divisional opponents – Dallas, New York, Washington.
Should Washington get plugged into that game, it will give Alex Smith an opportunity to begin a second straight season with an upset win over the Super Bowl champs. (Smith, recall, led Kansas City to a shocking win at Foxborough back in September).
I find Smith to be an interesting possibility for the 2018 season. He’s got some ability – knows how to play the position – and he’s getting inserted in a quarterback-friendly system. Jay Gruden hasn’t been a huge success as a coach, but he likes to put the ball in the air. With the way he calls plays, Washington tends to rank in the top 10 in passing yards.
In the past three years, only five teams have passed for more yards than Washington. You might attribute some of that to Kirk Cousins’ passing ability. I assign more of it to the nature of the offense (I think Smith is probably pretty similar in talent/ability to Cousins).
Over the past three years, Washington has averaged 34 more passing yards per game than Kansas City.
PASSING YARDS (2015-2017) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | Avg |
New Orleans | 325 | 329 | 271 | 308 |
New England | 301 | 279 | 289 | 289 |
LA Chargers | 303 | 274 | 284 | 287 |
Pittsburgh | 301 | 274 | 283 | 286 |
Atlanta | 288 | 310 | 259 | 286 |
Washington | 268 | 309 | 256 | 278 |
Detroit | 279 | 270 | 279 | 276 |
Arizona | 298 | 277 | 249 | 275 |
Tampa Bay | 253 | 260 | 288 | 267 |
Seattle | 254 | 276 | 249 | 260 |
NY Giants | 281 | 252 | 230 | 254 |
Philadelphia | 271 | 237 | 248 | 252 |
Jacksonville | 277 | 245 | 232 | 251 |
Baltimore | 278 | 271 | 202 | 251 |
Oakland | 258 | 259 | 235 | 251 |
Green Bay | 239 | 278 | 221 | 246 |
Denver | 264 | 245 | 229 | 246 |
Miami | 264 | 232 | 237 | 245 |
Kansas City | 218 | 245 | 270 | 244 |
Cincinnati | 257 | 263 | 212 | 244 |
Indianapolis | 246 | 281 | 202 | 243 |
Cleveland | 260 | 231 | 221 | 237 |
NY Jets | 261 | 228 | 219 | 236 |
Minnesota | 203 | 257 | 246 | 235 |
Carolina | 242 | 248 | 207 | 232 |
Houston | 255 | 214 | 228 | 232 |
Chicago | 240 | 259 | 193 | 231 |
San Francisco | 228 | 198 | 265 | 230 |
Tennessee | 243 | 233 | 212 | 229 |
Dallas | 230 | 237 | 208 | 225 |
LA Rams | 183 | 207 | 251 | 214 |
Buffalo | 225 | 203 | 193 | 207 |
Key (I think) is whether Smith can let it rip in the red zone. I think he’s wired to avoid mistakes. Better to take the safe field goal rather than trying to jam in a throw that might result in an interception.
Smith did a better job last year of uncorking deep balls and throwing touchdowns, but historically he’s been one of the more conservative quarterbacks. I think that’s probably more on him than Andy Reid. I think that’s interesting, with Washington’s coaches last year quietly grumbling that Cousins at times was too conservative with his throws and decision making.
Over the past three years, Washington has averaged over 5 more touchdown passes per season than Kansas City. (So if I were guessing today, I would probably pencil in Smith for about 24-25 touchdowns.)
PASSING TOUCHDOWNS (2015-2017) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | Avg |
New England | 36 | 32 | 32 | 33.3 |
Green Bay | 31 | 40 | 25 | 32.0 |
New Orleans | 32 | 38 | 23 | 31.0 |
LA Chargers | 30 | 33 | 28 | 30.3 |
Seattle | 34 | 23 | 34 | 30.3 |
Pittsburgh | 26 | 33 | 29 | 29.3 |
Detroit | 33 | 24 | 29 | 28.7 |
Oakland | 34 | 29 | 23 | 28.7 |
Arizona | 35 | 28 | 21 | 28.0 |
NY Giants | 36 | 26 | 20 | 27.3 |
Washington | 30 | 25 | 27 | 27.3 |
Atlanta | 21 | 38 | 21 | 26.7 |
Jacksonville | 35 | 24 | 21 | 26.7 |
Carolina | 35 | 21 | 22 | 26.0 |
Philadelphia | 23 | 16 | 38 | 25.7 |
Tampa Bay | 22 | 29 | 26 | 25.7 |
Miami | 24 | 27 | 24 | 25.0 |
Cincinnati | 31 | 18 | 25 | 24.7 |
Houston | 29 | 15 | 28 | 24.0 |
Indianapolis | 26 | 32 | 13 | 23.7 |
NY Jets | 33 | 16 | 19 | 22.7 |
Tennessee | 25 | 29 | 14 | 22.7 |
Kansas City | 20 | 19 | 26 | 21.7 |
Dallas | 16 | 25 | 22 | 21.0 |
Baltimore | 21 | 20 | 20 | 20.3 |
Minnesota | 14 | 20 | 25 | 19.7 |
Denver | 19 | 20 | 19 | 19.3 |
Buffalo | 23 | 17 | 16 | 18.7 |
Chicago | 21 | 19 | 13 | 17.7 |
LA Rams | 11 | 14 | 28 | 17.7 |
San Francisco | 16 | 21 | 15 | 17.3 |
Cleveland | 20 | 15 | 15 | 16.7 |
If you want to blend those two above charts into more of a fantasy table, Washington grades out in the top 10, while Kansas City is below average. That’s using 1 point for every 20 passing yards and 4 for each TD pass.
On this chart, quarterback rushing yards aren’t factored in. Smith should help his cause in that regard. He averaged 24 rushing yards last year.
FANTASY PASSING POINTS (2015-2017) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | Avg |
New Orleans | 388.3 | 414.9 | 308.7 | 370.6 |
New England | 384.6 | 350.8 | 359.0 | 364.8 |
LA Chargers | 362.8 | 351.3 | 339.6 | 351.2 |
Pittsburgh | 345.1 | 350.9 | 342.7 | 346.2 |
Detroit | 355.2 | 312.4 | 339.5 | 335.7 |
Atlanta | 314.1 | 400.0 | 291.3 | 335.1 |
Arizona | 378.8 | 333.3 | 283.0 | 331.7 |
Washington | 334.7 | 347.4 | 312.7 | 331.6 |
Seattle | 339.1 | 313.1 | 335.0 | 329.0 |
Green Bay | 315.3 | 382.3 | 276.6 | 324.7 |
Tampa Bay | 290.1 | 324.3 | 334.4 | 316.2 |
Oakland | 342.5 | 322.9 | 280.1 | 315.1 |
NY Giants | 369.0 | 305.4 | 264.0 | 312.8 |
Jacksonville | 361.4 | 292.3 | 269.8 | 307.8 |
Philadelphia | 309.1 | 253.9 | 350.4 | 304.4 |
Miami | 307.6 | 293.8 | 285.6 | 295.7 |
Cincinnati | 329.2 | 282.3 | 269.3 | 293.6 |
Carolina | 333.7 | 282.1 | 254.0 | 289.9 |
Indianapolis | 300.4 | 352.6 | 213.3 | 288.8 |
Kansas City | 254.7 | 271.7 | 320.3 | 282.2 |
Baltimore | 306.5 | 297.2 | 241.8 | 281.8 |
Houston | 320.0 | 230.9 | 294.2 | 281.7 |
NY Jets | 340.5 | 246.3 | 251.1 | 279.3 |
Tennessee | 294.7 | 302.0 | 225.7 | 274.1 |
Denver | 286.8 | 275.7 | 259.4 | 274.0 |
Minnesota | 218.3 | 286.0 | 296.5 | 266.9 |
Dallas | 247.9 | 290.0 | 254.3 | 264.0 |
Cleveland | 287.8 | 244.7 | 236.9 | 256.4 |
Chicago | 276.2 | 283.0 | 206.3 | 255.1 |
San Francisco | 246.3 | 242.3 | 271.8 | 253.5 |
LA Rams | 190.6 | 221.7 | 313.2 | 241.8 |
Buffalo | 272.0 | 230.5 | 218.3 | 240.3 |
—Ian Allan