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Alternate scoring for Experts Poll

Re-scoring the Fantasy Index Experts Poll

They say that 20 percent of the people do 80 percent of the work. You wear 20 percent of your clothes 80 percent of the time. And in any given society, 80 percent of the wealth will be possessed by 20 percent of the people. It’s the 80/20 rule, also known as the Pareto Principle.

I struggle with how to score the Experts Poll and the Fantasy Index Open, so I thought I would bring in some Pareto concepts for a tryout.

With “Standard” scoring, which is the official scoring system for both contests, you get more and more credit the higher a player is ranked. Greg Zuerlein, for example, was the No. 1 kicker, scoring 158 points. If you ranked him first, you would receive 3,950 points (25 x 158). If you ranked him 2nd, that would get you 3,792 (24 x 158). And so on. Standard can also employ a 20-1 scale (20th pick = 158 points – 158 x 1) but I’ve been using a 25-6 scale to give more weight to hitting on good picks in the teens.

I have also toyed around with “Waiver Wire” scoring, in which only starting players are scored. With any pick lower than the 12th quarterback, kicker, tight end or defense, 24th running back or 30th wide receiver, those picks are just tossed out. The assumption is you would find guys on the waiver wire along the way (negating the impact of completely missing on a pick like Andrew Luck). But that system feels a little loosey-goosey, with too many arbitrary assumptions, and too many picks getting tossed out.

As a possible improvement, I’m looking at some tweaks. A system I’ll call Pareto Scoring.

With this scoring system, the top 80 percent of your picks in each category count. So with quarterbacks, for example, you look at the 16 highest-scoring guys you mentioned, and they’re scored in the usual way. The four lowest-scoring players then get upgraded to equal whatever the 16th-best player scored. All 20 experts, for example, included Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers in their top 10. So instead of getting totally nailed for those choice, they get the production of their 16th-best quarterback. There’s a slight variance in the substitution numbers, with the contestants who did a better job of identifying the 16 highest-scoring quarterbacks getting a slightly better plug-in player.

It’s like the Waiver Wire system, but slightly better, I think. It seems to make more sense. With the Waiver Wire system, there’s the assumptions about there being twice as many starting running backs and wide receivers, but I don’t think that quite makes sense, since our forecasters are selecting 20 players at each position.

Anyway, I ran the numbers, and on this one I used a 20-1 descending scale on scoring. With everyone’s 17th, 18th, 19th and 20th picks at each position getting upgraded to 16th, I didn’t want to magnify those upgrades by also inflating the value of the picks in the teens.

EXPERTS POLL (Pareto Scoring with 20-1 scale)
AnalystQBRBWRTEPKDefPoints
Jeff Ratcliffe2671152198,324
Mike Clay32514144197,825
Sam Hendricks7429139196,779
Ryan McDowell61341346196,625
Bob Henry415152313196,619
Jody Smith81113723196,608
Tony Holm11111968196,338
Scott Pianowski1436101117195,976
Justin Eleff131611875195,620
Michael Nazarek910861214195,533
Ryan Murphy1117315810194,800
Scott Sachs10181416116194,136
Lenny Pappano59193197194,094
Alan Satterlee165188915193,583
Ken Valis1519175161191,984
Cory Bonini12716201719191,456
David Dorey17201011520190,801
Chris Liss19141241011190,216
Paul Charchian1889172012190,023
L.A. Hale201220121818185,722

I also ran the numbers using a 25-6 scale, and they look pretty similar. Only one expert moved by more than one spot (with Justin Eleff falling from 9th to 11th).

EXPERTS POLL (Pareto Scoring with 25-6 scale)
AnalystQBRBWRTEPKDefPoints
Jeff Ratcliffe147871290,049
Mike Clay22815143288,989
Sam Hendricks75214129287,473
Bob Henry313152311287,461
Ryan McDowell8155956287,255
Jody Smith91214525286,841
Scott Pianowski14367916286,588
Tony Holm4110181110286,573
Michael Nazarek1284101015286,299
Ryan Murphy617311412285,867
Justin Eleff131611964285,407
Scott Sachs11181316114284,684
Lenny Pappano57183197283,986
Alan Satterlee151020131317280,514
Cory Bonini10916201819279,970
Ken Valis1619176162279,165
David Dorey1720911720278,961
Paul Charchian1861217208278,731
Chris Liss1914114813278,009
L.A. Hale201119121518272,521

Ultimately, I don’t think the scoring system matters all that much. Every year I score this contest in different ways, and the same entries tend to bubble to the top. This year, Jeff Ratcliffe of Pro Football Focus and Mike Clay of ESPN came out on top in all of the scoring formats. Sam Hendricks (Extra Point Press) and Ryan McDowell (Dynasty League Football) finished in the top 5 in all formats.

EXPERTS POLL (3 different scoring systems)
AnalystCompanyStdWWPareto
Jeff RatcliffePro Football Focus121
Mike ClayESPN212
Sam HendricksExtra Point Press533
Ryan McDowellDynasty League Football454
Bob HenryFootballGuys3105
Jody SmithGridiron Experts866
Tony HolmFantasy Sharks697
Justin EleffFantasy Index Podcast1049
Scott PianowskiYahoo Sports978
Michael NazarekFantasy Football Mastermind11810
Lenny PappanoDraft Sharks71313
Ryan MurphyEast Berlin, Pa.141511
Chris LissRotoWire121218
Alan SatterleeCharlotte Observer131614
Ken ValisGaithersburg, Md.181115
Scott SachsPerfect Season FF161812
Cory BoniniUSA Today Fantasy Sports171716
David DoreyThe Huddle152017
Paul CharchianLeagueSafe191419
L.A. HaleFantasy Gives201920

—Ian Allan

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