At this point of year, I spend most of my time parsing through statistics, looking at them in various ways. And it never seems to be long before something interesting pops up. Like with Javorius Allen.
Baltimore, of course, stumbled onto a little gold last year with Alex Collins. He became their featured runner and did a really nice job – maybe the biggest surprise of the year.
But I noticed during the year that the Ravens also like to use Allen in short-yardage and goal-line situations. They would often line up Collins in the back of the I-formation, but then give the ball to Allen on a fullback dive, and he’d almost always get the necessary yards. Allen scored 6 touchdowns.
Now that I’ve got the season-long numbers in front of me, I can better see just how effective Allen was, and just how often the Ravens used him.
Baltimore gave Allen the ball 20 times last year when it needed either 1 or 2 yards to either score or keep a drive alive (on third or fourth down), and he was successful on 16 of those 20 carries.
That’s an unusually good success rate.
Over the past 10 years, in fact, 121 running backs have had at least 20 of those carries (in a season), and Allen is the first to convert 80 percent of them.
Weird.
I like Collins. But with Allen being really good in short-yardage situations, I expect he will continue to get a healthy number of carries in goal-line situations in 2018.
| SHORT-YARDAGE RUSHING LEADERS (2008-2017) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | "Good" | Att | Pct |
| 2017 | Javorius Allen, Balt. | 16 | 20 | 80.0% |
| 2008 | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 19 | 24 | 79.2% |
| 2013 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 26 | 33 | 78.8% |
| 2008 | LeRon McClain, Balt. | 18 | 23 | 78.3% |
| 2017 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 17 | 22 | 77.3% |
| 2013 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 17 | 22 | 77.3% |
| 2014 | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 26 | 34 | 76.5% |
| 2014 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 16 | 21 | 76.2% |
| 2014 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 19 | 25 | 76.0% |
| 2008 | T.J. Duckett, Sea. | 22 | 29 | 75.9% |
| 2015 | Jeremy Hill, Cin. | 18 | 24 | 75.0% |
| 2015 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 15 | 20 | 75.0% |
| 2014 | Chris Ivory, NYJ | 15 | 20 | 75.0% |
| 2013 | Joique Bell, Det. | 18 | 24 | 75.0% |
| 2008 | Ronnie Brown, Mia. | 15 | 20 | 75.0% |
| 2011 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 26 | 36 | 72.2% |
| 2017 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 15 | 21 | 71.4% |
| 2016 | Ezekiel Elliot, Dall. | 20 | 28 | 71.4% |
| 2015 | Darren McFadden, Dall. | 15 | 21 | 71.4% |
| 2015 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 15 | 21 | 71.4% |
| 2010 | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 20 | 28 | 71.4% |
| 2009 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | 15 | 21 | 71.4% |
| 2009 | Chris Johnson, Tenn. | 15 | 21 | 71.4% |
| 2014 | Matt Asiata, Minn. | 17 | 24 | 70.8% |
| 2009 | Laurence Maroney, N.E. | 17 | 24 | 70.8% |
| 2008 | Clinton Portis, Wash. | 17 | 24 | 70.8% |
| 2016 | Jonathan Stewart, Car. | 14 | 20 | 70.0% |
| 2013 | Mike Tolbert, Car. | 14 | 20 | 70.0% |
| 2012 | Michael Bush, Chi. | 14 | 20 | 70.0% |
| 2011 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 14 | 20 | 70.0% |
| 2009 | Cedric Benson, Cin. | 14 | 20 | 70.0% |
| 2008 | Kevin Smith, Det. | 14 | 20 | 70.0% |
While I’ve got the numbers in front of me, I will also point out that Todd Gurley wasn’t nearly as effective on those plays as I would have expected. He went only 16 of 31 – less effective than he was in 2016.
Gurley put up big numbers in 2017, but I don’t think that was fueled by him showing up in great shape and determined to dominate. I think he was just used more effectively by the new coaching staff – the entire offense was a lot better, and they just kept feeding him the ball (even if the results weren’t dramatically better than the previous year). Gurley was remarkably better in the passing game.
In our little statistical subset here, however, there are 121 running backs, and only 12 of them were less effective in short-yardage situations than Gurley.
| CONVERTING UNDER 55 PERCENT (2008-2017) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | "Good" | Att | Pct |
| 2015 | Chris Ivory, NYJ | 9 | 25 | 36.0% |
| 2010 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 8 | 21 | 38.1% |
| 2011 | Cedric Benson, Cin. | 11 | 27 | 40.7% |
| 2016 | Matt Asiata, Minn. | 11 | 26 | 42.3% |
| 2010 | Chris Johnson, Tenn. | 9 | 21 | 42.9% |
| 2011 | Frank Gore, S.F. | 10 | 23 | 43.5% |
| 2009 | Jason Snelling, Atl. | 10 | 23 | 43.5% |
| 2016 | Jeremy Hill, Cin. | 10 | 22 | 45.5% |
| 2011 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 13 | 28 | 46.4% |
| 2017 | Carlos Hyde, S.F. | 11 | 23 | 47.8% |
| 2009 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 11 | 22 | 50.0% |
| 2008 | Thomas Jones, NYJ | 11 | 22 | 50.0% |
| 2017 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 16 | 31 | 51.6% |
| 2013 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 14 | 27 | 51.9% |
| 2011 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 13 | 25 | 52.0% |
| 2009 | Brandon Jacobs, NYG | 13 | 25 | 52.0% |
| 2009 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 12 | 23 | 52.2% |
| 2009 | Marion Barber, Dall. | 17 | 32 | 53.1% |
| 2010 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 16 | 30 | 53.3% |
| 2008 | Larry Johnson, K.C. | 15 | 28 | 53.6% |
| 2010 | Michael Turner, Atl. | 14 | 26 | 53.8% |
| 2012 | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 13 | 24 | 54.2% |
| 2011 | BenJarvus Green-Ellis, N.E. | 13 | 24 | 54.2% |
| 2011 | Michael Turner, Atl. | 17 | 31 | 54.8% |
| 2010 | Cedric Benson, Cin. | 17 | 31 | 54.8% |
—Ian Allan