Joe Mixon showed brief flashes of potential as a rookie, but he didn’t quite put it together. The Bengals got their best running back play late in the season from Giovani Bernard, who’s long been more of a third-down back. Can Mixon be counted on to grow into more of a featured runner?
Mixon was held back by lesser offensive line play for sure. Andrew Whitworth and Kevin Zeitler signed free agent deals with other teams, and that took a toll on the entire offense. (I was encouraged, therefore, by the move to trade for Cordy Glenn, who should help at left tackle).
But Mixon averaged only 3.5 yards per carry, and that’s a pretty meager number. So makes sense to look at previous backs who’ve also struggled in their first season, then check at how much they improved. Thomas Jones, for example, averaged only 3.3 in his first season, and he went on to have a great career.
I decided to look at backs selected in the first and second rounds. (Mixon was selected in the second, but strictly on talent he’s more of a first-round guy – he dropped in the draft because of the assault incident outside a restaurant in Oklahoma.
I zeroed in on backs who carried the ball at least 100 times in their rookie season and averaged under 4 yards per attempt. So that opens it up to include two other backs from last year (Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette).
In the past 20 years, there have been 16 such backs who carried the ball at least 100 times who also came back and carried the ball 100-plus times in their second season.
All of three of these 16 backs averaged more yards per carry in their second season. Seven of them (just short of half) move up over 4 yards per attempt.
For fantasy purposes, most are more interested in overall production (they don’t care whether a guy averages 3.9 or 4.1 yards per attempt). So makes sense to look at total yards and touchdowns. Using standard scoring, 11 of these 16 backs put up better overall numbers in their second season. Five finished with lesser numbers, and they’re tagged with black dots.
On this chart, I’ve got them in order by what they did as rookies. That is, Matt Forte, LaDainian Tomlinson, Trent Richardson and Reggie Bush put up the best rookie numbers, and I’ve got them listed first (note that three of those four backs declined in Year 2).
| ROOKIES AVERAGING UNDER 4 YARDS PER CARRY | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | YPC | Run | Rec | Tot | TD | Imp |
| 2009 | • Matt Forte, Chi. | 3.60 | 929 | 471 | 1,400 | 4 | -33% |
| 2002 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 4.52 | 1,683 | 489 | 2,172 | 15 | 39% |
| 2013 | • Trent Richardson, Cle.-Ind. | 2.92 | 458 | 265 | 723 | 4 | -53% |
| 2018 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2007 | • Reggie Bush, N.O. | 3.70 | 581 | 417 | 998 | 6 | -26% |
| 2014 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 4.69 | 1,361 | 854 | 2,215 | 11 | 65% |
| 2008 | Marshawn Lynch, Buff. | 4.14 | 1,036 | 300 | 1,336 | 9 | 9% |
| 2010 | • Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 4.28 | 779 | 372 | 1,151 | 8 | -4% |
| 2018 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2003 | • William Green, Clev. | 3.94 | 559 | 50 | 609 | 1 | -51% |
| 2000 | Ricky Williams, N.O. | 4.03 | 1,000 | 409 | 1,409 | 9 | 66% |
| 2018 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2002 | Travis Henry, Buff. | 4.42 | 1,438 | 309 | 1,747 | 14 | 125% |
| 2002 | Michael Bennett, Minn. | 5.08 | 1,296 | 351 | 1,647 | 6 | 84% |
| 2001 | Ron Dayne, NYG | 3.83 | 690 | 67 | 757 | 7 | 9% |
| 2016 | Melvin Gordon, S.D. | 3.93 | 997 | 419 | 1,416 | 12 | 156% |
| 2012 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 3.86 | 602 | 29 | 631 | 5 | 14% |
| 2003 | T.J. Duckett, Atl. | 3.95 | 779 | 94 | 873 | 11 | 90% |
| 2001 | Thomas Jones, Ariz. | 3.39 | 380 | 151 | 531 | 5 | 19% |
Six other backs carried 100-plus times in their rookie season, averaging under 4 yards per attempt, but then failed to get 100 carries in their second year. Most of these guys were chosen in the second round, and we’re never considered to be super elite prospects like the three from 2017.
| LIMITED TOUCHES IN SECOND YEAR | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | YPC | Run | Rec | Tot | TD | Imp |
| 2012 | Daniel Thomas, Mia. | 3.57 | 325 | 156 | 481 | 4 | 1% |
| 2011 | • Jahvid Best, Det. | 4.64 | 390 | 287 | 677 | 3 | -38% |
| 2000 | • James Johnson, Mia. | 3.36 | 168 | 61 | 229 | 1 | -68% |
| 2015 | • Bishop Sankey, Tenn. | 4.11 | 193 | 139 | 332 | 2 | -45% |
| 2006 | • J.J. Arrington, Ariz. | 1.36 | 19 | 58 | 77 | 1 | -78% |
| 2000 | • Joe Montgomery, NYG | 4.00 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -88% |
—Ian Allan