The NFL is a quarterback-driven league, so one school of thought is that you never skip an opportunity to select a franchise player at that position. While the Giants might have Eli Manning, for example, they should choose a quarterback at No. 2 if they feel there’s a big-time player there. Who knows when they might have that opportunity again?
But is such thinking sound? Players like Saquon Barkley, Quenton Nelson and Bradley Chubb also have the ability to transform franchises, and they’ll definitely help more right away.
Certainly there are plenty of quarterbacks chosen early in drafts who don’t pan out. And while the narrative indicates otherwise, it’s possible to find good quarterbacks without using one of the first few picks. Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Russell Wilson, most famously, weren’t even chosen in the first round.
Below I’ve listed what I think are the top 32 quarterbacks in the league. Forget about fantasy football for a minute. On this one, I’m ranking the players by how I think the NFL teams would currently value them for the 2018 season. Brady and Brees are older guys, but that’s not a big factor because we’re looking at just the upcoming year. I’ve got them in ballpark order, 1 thru 32.
In the top 4, I’ve got Aaron Rodgers, who fell to the 24th spot, and the three big stars who were all overlooked. For the rest of the top 10, it’s dominated by players picked 1st or 2nd overall, plus Ben Roethlisberger (who made it down to 11th).
Of the next dozen, half weren’t selected in the first round. There’s Deshaun Watson, who made it down to 12th, and five others who were all top-4 picks.
Overall, almost half (14) of the top 32 quarterbacks are players who were super coveted when they came out – top-4 picks overall. These are the kinds of players, the Browns, Giants, Jets, Bills and Broncos are trying to zero in on.
Another five players on this list were top-of-the-draft guys but were at least chosen in the first round. All went between 10th and 24th.
In this group, however, there are another 13 players who weren’t even chosen in the first round. That’s just over 40 percent.
Quarterbacking is super important, and all of those elite prospects deserve a careful look, but it is possible to instead go with another position and chose a quarterback who makes it into the second round. The need for quarterbacks isn’t so great that teams should be firing off early selections on players they’re not totaling sold on.
On list below, if a quarterback was chosen with a top-4 pick, he’s in bold. If he was chosen later in the first round, he’s tagged with a black dot.
| ORIGIN OF QUARTERBACKS | |
|---|---|
| Player | Drafted |
| • Aaron Rodgers | 24th pick |
| Tom Brady | 6th round |
| Russell Wilson | 3rd round |
| Drew Brees | 2nd round |
| Carson Wentz | 2nd pick |
| Matthew Stafford | 1st pick |
| Andrew Luck | 1st pick |
| • Ben Roethlisberger | 11th pick |
| Cam Newton | 1st pick |
| Matt Ryan | 3rd pick |
| Kirk Cousins | 4th round |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2nd round |
| Alex Smith | 1st pick |
| Philip Rivers | 4th pick |
| • Deshaun Watson | 12th pick |
| Jared Goff | 1st pick |
| Andy Dalton | 2nd round |
| Derek Carr | 2nd round |
| Marcus Mariota | 2nd pick |
| Jameis Winston | 1st pick |
| Tyrod Taylor | 6th round |
| Dak Prescott | 4th round |
| • Patrick Mahomes | 10th pick |
| Case Keenum | undrafted |
| Eli Manning | 1st pick |
| Blake Bortles | 3rd pick |
| • Joe Flacco | 18th pick |
| Nick Foles | 3rd round |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 2nd pick |
| Josh McCown | 3rd round |
—Ian Allan