Frank Reich knows elite tight ends. The new head coach for the Colts has worked with Antonio Gates and Zach Ertz at his previous two coaching stops. So when he speaks favorably of new Indianapolis tight end Eric Ebron, you have to give it some credence, even if it seems wildly optimistic.
Reich's evaluation of Ebron seems overly positive, to say the least. But maybe it's just a case of Reich looking at what's possible, rather than what last season might indicate.
In 2016, Ebron impressed by being one of the league's better tight ends at turning targets into receptions. A year ago, he was one of the worst. If Reich's offense in Indianapolis can tap into that previous season's potential, maybe Ebron will surprise.
Over the last two seasons, 45 tight ends have put up at least 400 receiving yards. In 2016, Ebron was among the better ones at turning targets into receptions, catching over 71 percent of the passes thrown his way. But last year he was one of the very worst, catching only 61 percent. Meanwhile Ebron's new teammate in Indianapolis, Jack Doyle, was one of the best at the position in both seasons, despite dealing with lesser quarterbacking for a good portion of those two years.
| TIGHT END CATCH RATES, LAST TWO SEASONS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Tgt | Rec | % | Yards |
| 2016 | Jack Doyle, Ind. | 75 | 59 | 78.7% | 584 |
| 2017 | Ben Watson, Balt. | 79 | 61 | 77.2% | 522 |
| 2017 | Austin Hooper, Atl. | 65 | 49 | 75.4% | 526 |
| 2016 | Martellus Bennett, N.E. | 73 | 55 | 75.3% | 701 |
| 2016 | Vernon Davis, Wash. | 59 | 44 | 74.6% | 583 |
| 2016 | Jordan Reed, Wash. | 89 | 66 | 74.2% | 686 |
| 2017 | Jack Doyle, Ind. | 108 | 80 | 74.1% | 690 |
| 2016 | Zach Ertz, Phil. | 106 | 78 | 73.6% | 816 |
| 2016 | Zach Miller, Chic. | 64 | 47 | 73.4% | 486 |
| 2016 | Travis Kelce, K.C. | 117 | 85 | 72.6% | 1125 |
| 2016 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 95 | 69 | 72.6% | 673 |
| 2017 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 87 | 63 | 72.4% | 560 |
| 2016 | Eric Ebron, Det. | 85 | 61 | 71.8% | 711 |
| 2016 | Dennis Pitta, Balt. | 121 | 86 | 71.1% | 729 |
| 2017 | Kyle Rudolph, Minn. | 81 | 57 | 70.4% | 532 |
| 2016 | Cameron Brate, T.B. | 81 | 57 | 70.4% | 660 |
| 2016 | Jimmy Graham, Sea. | 95 | 65 | 68.4% | 923 |
| 2017 | George Kittle, S.F. | 63 | 43 | 68.3% | 515 |
| 2017 | Travis Kelce, K.C. | 122 | 83 | 68.0% | 1038 |
| 2016 | Hunter Henry, S.D. | 53 | 36 | 67.9% | 478 |
| 2017 | Tyler Kroft, Cin. | 62 | 42 | 67.7% | 404 |
| 2016 | Ryan Griffin, Hou. | 74 | 50 | 67.6% | 442 |
| 2017 | Zach Ertz, Phil. | 110 | 74 | 67.3% | 824 |
| 2016 | Dwayne Allen, Ind. | 52 | 35 | 67.3% | 406 |
| 2016 | Gary Barnidge, Clev. | 82 | 55 | 67.1% | 612 |
| 2017 | Delanie Walker, Tenn. | 111 | 74 | 66.7% | 807 |
| 2017 | O.J. Howard, T.B. | 39 | 26 | 66.7% | 432 |
| 2017 | Charles Clay, Buff. | 74 | 49 | 66.2% | 558 |
| 2016 | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 38 | 25 | 65.8% | 540 |
| 2017 | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 105 | 69 | 65.7% | 1084 |
| 2016 | Charles Clay, Buff. | 87 | 57 | 65.5% | 552 |
| 2016 | Delanie Walker, Tenn. | 102 | 65 | 63.7% | 800 |
| 2016 | Kyle Rudolph, Minn. | 132 | 83 | 62.9% | 840 |
| 2017 | Jared Cook, Oak. | 86 | 54 | 62.8% | 688 |
| 2017 | Ed Dickson, Car. | 48 | 30 | 62.5% | 437 |
| 2017 | Vernon Davis, Wash. | 69 | 43 | 62.3% | 648 |
| 2017 | Cameron Brate, T.B. | 77 | 48 | 62.3% | 591 |
| 2016 | Greg Olsen, Car. | 129 | 80 | 62.0% | 1073 |
| 2016 | Coby Fleener, N.O. | 81 | 50 | 61.7% | 631 |
| 2017 | Eric Ebron, Det. | 86 | 53 | 61.6% | 574 |
| 2016 | C.J. Fiedorowicz, Hou. | 89 | 54 | 60.7% | 559 |
| 2017 | Jimmy Graham, Sea. | 96 | 57 | 59.4% | 520 |
| 2016 | Lance Kendricks, LAR | 87 | 50 | 57.5% | 499 |
| 2016 | Antonio Gates, S.D. | 93 | 53 | 57.0% | 548 |
| 2017 | Evan Engram, NYG | 115 | 64 | 55.7% | 722 |
So which is the real Eric Ebron -- and is Reich thinking about the wrong tight end in his evaluation? What seems clear is that both players will be involved, making it difficult to be too high on either one. But just maybe Reich will ultimately decide it's Doyle, not Ebron, who's most likely to perform at an elite-type level for him.
--Andy Richardson