I'm on record thinking quarterbacks will go 1-2-3 in the draft; very confident at least three will go win the top 5 picks. Recent draft chatter has the Browns favoring Sam Darnold at No. 1 overall, and the Jets are surely taking one at No. 3; maybe the Giants (or some team they trade with) at No. 2. The question is, which one will turn out best?
Over the past 25 years (starting, conveniently enough, with Drew Bledsoe and Rick Mirer at 1-2 back in 1993), there have been 10 instances of multiple quarterbacks being drafted in the top 5 picks. There's some subjectivity here, but how often in those 10 instances has the team picking first picked best -- or worst?
Statistically, it looks like good news for Browns fans (assuming they stay at No. 1 and actually pick a quarterback, that is). Only twice have the teams picking earliest in these situations picked a guy who in retrospect would be considered a bust. (Granted, one of those times was the Browns themselves.) Tim Couch in 1999 and David Carr in 2002 didn't have successful careers. Perhaps going to talent-thin expansion franchises and getting killed behind poor offensive lines was the major reason why those guys didn't work out. And in the Carr year, the second quarterback taken, Joey Harrington, also flopped.
Five times ('93, '95, '98, '09, '12) the guy drafted earliest turned out significantly better than the guy drafted later. And three other times, if you give me the luxury of making early calls on some recent picks, both quarterbacks worked out pretty well ('04, '15 and '16).
In the table, the clearly superior quarterback of the two (or three) drafted in the top 5 is in bold. Only once (out of six) is the 2nd guy drafted listed (Donovan McNabb). Of course, that happened to the Browns.
| MULTIPLE QBS IN TOP 5, 1993-PRESENT | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | College |
| 2016 | 1 | Jared Goff, LAR | California |
| 2016 | 2 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | North Dakota State |
| 2015 | 1 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | Florida State |
| 2015 | 2 | Marcus Mariota, Tenn. | Oregon |
| 2012 | 1 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | Stanford |
| 2012 | 2 | Robert Griffin III, Wash. | Baylor |
| 2009 | 1 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | Georgia |
| 2009 | 5 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | Southern California |
| 2004 | 1 | Eli Manning, NYG | Mississippi |
| 2004 | 4 | Philip Rivers, S.D. | North Carolina State |
| 2002 | 1 | David Carr, Hou. | Fresno State |
| 2002 | 3 | Joey Harrington, Det. | Oregon |
| 1999 | 1 | Tim Couch, Clev. | Kentucky |
| 1999 | 2 | Donovan McNabb, Phil. | Syracuse |
| 1999 | 3 | Akili Smith, Cin. | Oregon |
| 1998 | 1 | Peyton Manning, Ind. | Tennessee |
| 1998 | 2 | Ryan Leaf, S.D. | Washington State |
| 1995 | 3 | Steve McNair, Hou. | Alcorn State |
| 1995 | 5 | Kerry Collins, Car. | Penn State |
| 1993 | 1 | Drew Bledsoe, N.E. | Washington State |
| 1993 | 2 | Rick Mirer, Sea. | Notre Dame |
So in the last quarter century, eight of ten quarterbacks drafted first in similar situations worked out pretty well. Doesn't guarantee anything for Cleveland, but you have to like the odds.