Fantasy Index

Active Banner
PLAYOFF CHEAT SHEETS ON SALE NOW.
SIGN UP

Andy Richardson

March 26, 2018

First running back the best running back?

Recent history not a slam dunk

Saquon Barkley is just about certain to be the first running back drafted next month, probably with a top-10 pick. Sometimes that running back goes on to be the best running back in the draft class, sometimes he doesn't. Which has been more likely in recent years?

Back in 2007, that first running back drafted was Adrian Peterson, and he did indeed wind up as the best. (Although the next one drafted, Marshawn Lynch, had a pretty nice career, too.) There have been 10 drafts since. I'm listing the top 5 running backs selected in each of those drafts below, with the best of them (and there's some subjectivity here) listed in bold.

FIRST FIVE RUNNING BACKS DRAFTED, 2008-2017
YearRdPkPlayer
200814Darren McFadden, Oak.
2008113Jonathan Stewart, Car.
2008122Felix Jones, Dall.
2008123Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt.
2008124Chris Johnson, Tenn.
2009112Knowshon Moreno, Den.
2009127Donald Brown, Ind.
2009131Beanie Wells, Ariz.
2009253LeSean McCoy, Phil.
2009365Shonn Greene, NYJ
201019C.J. Spiller, Buff.
2010112Ryan Mathews, S.D.
2010130Jahvid Best, Det.
2010251Toby Gerhart, Minn.
2010258Ben Tate, Hou.
2011128Mark Ingram, N.O.
2011238Ryan Williams, Ariz.
2011256Shane Vereen, N.E.
2011257Mikel Leshoure, Det.
2011262Daniel Thomas, Mia.
201213Trent Richardson, Clev.
2012131Doug Martin, T.B.
2012132David Wilson, NYG
2012250Isaiah Pead, St.L.
2012261LaMichael James, S.F.
2013237Giovani Bernard, Cin.
2013248LeVeon Bell, Pitt.
2013258Montee Ball, Den.
2013261Eddie Lacy, G.B.
2013262Christine Michael, Sea.
2014254Bishop Sankey, Tenn.
2014255Jeremy Hill, Cin.
2014257Carlos Hyde, S.F.
2014369Charles Sims, T.B.
2014375Tre Mason, St.L.
2015110Todd Gurley, St.L.
2015115Melvin Gordon, S.D.
2015236T.J. Yeldon, Jac.
2015254Ameer Abdullah, Det.
2015373Tevin Coleman, Atl.
201614Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.
2016245Derrick Henry, Tenn.
2016373Kenyan Drake, Mia.
2016390C.J. Prosise, Sea.
20164119Tyler Ervin, Hou.
201714Leonard Fournette, Jac.
201718Christian McCaffrey, Car.
2017241Dalvin Cook, Minn.
2017248Joe Mixon, Cin.
2017367Alvin Kamara, N.O.

By my count, three times out of 10 the best running back of the first five drafted was the first one: working backward we've got Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley and Mark Ingram. You could make a case for C.J. Spiller, but kind of a tossup with Ryan Mathews; Mathews went over 1,000 yards twice in four seasons with the Chargers, Spiller did it once in his career.

Three times it was definitely one of the next four backs drafted: LeVeon Bell, LeSean McCoy and Chris Johnson. Those guys should have been the first backs drafted in their respective classes.

Three times I'm giving the edge to a back not selected first (Mathews, plus Carlos Hyde and Doug Martin). Those guys haven't been great, but they've been better than the earlier picks.

Then there's last year, and it's definitely too soon to say which back will go on to have the best career. Mixon was the only true disappointment. If it is Fournette (and it might be, though I suspect many would vote for Kamara) it'd be three straight years of the best back being drafted earliest. Maybe Barkley makes it four straight.

Also worth noting it’s a different animal when that first running back is selected in the top 10, like Barkley will be. No comparison to a guy like Bishop Sankey. But for every sure star like Peterson or Elliott, there’s a Richardson or McFadden. But at least the most recent history speaks favorably of Barkley.

Saquon Barkley
Older
Newer

Fantasy Index