Baker Mayfield doesn’t look like what we expect a quarterback to look like. He’s shorter and stockier than what we tend to see at that position. And with the headband and beard stubble, he looks he might be a former member of the Cobra Kai.
Mayfield had to walk-on at Texas Tech.
But he finished his college career with some pretty sick numbers. Lots of yards and touchdowns (as well as a Heisman).
If you take Mayfield’s stats from last year and compare them with the final-season stats for all of the other quarterbacks selected in the first round in the last 10 years, he comes out near the top in all of them – completion percentage, yards, touchdowns, interception percentage, passer rating.
Stats, of course, haven’t proven to be a great barometer of future NFL success. By whatever stat you choose to rank them, you’ll find quarterbacks who went on to have good career appearing both near the top and near the bottom.
In the case of Mayfield, there’s also the Big-12 factor. They don’t seem to play defense in that conference, which has contributed in the past to Robert Griffin III, Patrick Mahomes and Brandon Weeden putting up monster numbers.
With Mayfield, it’s more meaningful to look at his work against quality opponents – like Ohio State and especially Georgia in the Rose Bowl. The Sooners lost in that national championship game, but I liked the way Mayfield played. He connected on a lot of downfield throws – not dumpoffs, but balls where he was driving it downfield.
That’s a stat I look at – yards per completion – because it helps indicate what a quarterback is trying to do. Is he throwing easy check-down throws for short gains? Or is he trying to do some damage with downfield throws? Can he put it in a tight spot?
In the case of Mayfield, he averaged 16.2 yards per completion last year. That’s a lot more than any of the other quarterbacks chosen in the first round in the last 10 years.
| FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS; YARDS PER COMPLETION | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Pct | Yards | TD | Int | YPCom |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield | 71% | 4,627 | 43 | 6 | 16.24 |
| 2011 | Cam Newton | 66% | 2,854 | 30 | 7 | 15.43 |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin III | 72% | 4,293 | 37 | 6 | 14.75 |
| 2009 | Matthew Stafford | 61% | 3,459 | 25 | 10 | 14.72 |
| 2015 | Marcus Mariota | 68% | 4,454 | 42 | 4 | 14.65 |
| 2010 | Sam Bradford | 57% | 562 | 2 | 0 | 14.41 |
| 2018 | Lamar Jackson | 59% | 3,660 | 27 | 10 | 14.41 |
| 2016 | Jared Goff | 64% | 4,719 | 43 | 13 | 13.84 |
| 2014 | Blake Bortles | 68% | 3,581 | 25 | 9 | 13.83 |
| 2014 | Johnny Manziel | 70% | 4,114 | 37 | 13 | 13.71 |
| 2018 | Sam Darnold | 63% | 4,143 | 26 | 13 | 13.67 |
| 2010 | Tim Tebow | 68% | 2,895 | 21 | 5 | 13.59 |
| 2009 | Mark Sanchez | 66% | 3,207 | 34 | 10 | 13.31 |
| 2018 | Josh Rosen | 63% | 3,756 | 26 | 10 | 13.27 |
| 2009 | Josh Freeman | 59% | 2,945 | 20 | 8 | 13.15 |
| 2014 | Teddy Bridgewater | 71% | 3,970 | 31 | 4 | 13.10 |
| 2017 | Patrick Mahomes | 66% | 5,052 | 41 | 10 | 13.02 |
| 2013 | EJ Manuel | 68% | 3,397 | 23 | 10 | 12.92 |
| 2008 | Joe Flacco | 64% | 4,263 | 23 | 5 | 12.88 |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston | 65% | 3,907 | 25 | 18 | 12.81 |
| 2016 | Paxton Lynch | 67% | 3,776 | 28 | 4 | 12.76 |
| 2016 | Carson Wentz | 63% | 1,651 | 17 | 4 | 12.70 |
| 2017 | Mitchell Trubisky | 68% | 3,748 | 30 | 6 | 12.33 |
| 2011 | Jake Locker | 55% | 2,265 | 17 | 9 | 12.31 |
| 2012 | Andrew Luck | 71% | 3,517 | 37 | 10 | 12.21 |
| 2018 | Josh Allen | 56% | 1,812 | 16 | 6 | 11.92 |
| 2017 | Deshaun Watson | 67% | 4,593 | 41 | 17 | 11.84 |
| 2008 | Matt Ryan | 59% | 4,507 | 31 | 19 | 11.62 |
| 2012 | Brandon Weeden | 72% | 4,727 | 37 | 13 | 11.59 |
| 2012 | Ryan Tannehill | 62% | 3,744 | 29 | 15 | 11.45 |
| 2011 | Christian Ponder | 62% | 2,044 | 20 | 8 | 11.11 |
| 2011 | Blaine Gabbert | 63% | 3,186 | 16 | 9 | 10.58 |
To me, I wonder if Mayfield is being unfairly downgraded because of his height. I think if he were 6-foot-4 and 235 pounds, he’d be the No. 1 player on everyone’s board. And I’m not sure how important those extra few inches are. Drew Brees and Russell Wilson weren’t first-round picks, and they were able to overcome being on the short side. Mayfield might have some of that going for him.
—Ian Allan