Washington has traded out Kirk Cousins for Alex Smith, but I think the more notable guy there is Jay Gruden. When he’s orchestrating an offense, passing production tends to be good.
Including his work as an offensive coordinator in Cincinnati, Gruden has had control of an NFL offense for the last seven years. His last six teams have all ranked higher in passing than rushing.
Gruden had a rough time in his first season in Washington, when he was finding his way – working through the transition away from Robert Griffin III. But Gruden’s last five other offenses have all put up very good passing numbers.
Setting aside year one in Washington, Gruden’s last five teams have averaged 268 passing yards per game and 28.6 TD passes per season.
Alex Smith tends to be painfully conservative. Too often he’s hesitant to pull the trigger in key situations – potential long throws and in the red zone where the windows get tight. But as often as they pass in this system, I think Smith looks like a pretty safe bet for above-average passing stats.
| JAY GRUDEN; PASSING OFFENSES | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Pct | Yds | TD | Int |
| 2011 | Cincinnati | 57.6% | 3,507 | 21 | 14 |
| 2012 | Cincinnati | 62.0% | 3,807 | 28 | 16 |
| 2013 | Cincinnati | 62.0% | 4,321 | 33 | 20 |
| 2014 | Washington | 66.5% | 4,047 | 18 | 18 |
| 2015 | Washington | 69.5% | 4,294 | 30 | 11 |
| 2016 | Washington | 67.1% | 4,948 | 25 | 12 |
| 2017 | Washington | 64.3% | 4,093 | 27 | 13 |
Similarly, I’m not real excited about what Washington will do running the ball. At this point, I’m not sure who their main ball carrier will be. They’ll have Chris Thompson out there a lot as a third-down type guy. As their primary runner, it could be Samaje Perine, Rob Kelley or somebody they select in the draft. But Gruden’s teams don’t tend to run it much.
Gruden’s last seven offenses all ranked below-average in rushing. It’s just doesn’t tend to be a big part of what they’re trying to do. Those seven teams averaged 100 yards per game and 12.8 rushing touchdowns per season.
| JAY GRUDEN; RUSHING OFFENSES | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Att | Yards | Avg | TD |
| 2011 | Cincinnati | 455 | 1,778 | 3.9 | 10 |
| 2012 | Cincinnati | 430 | 1,745 | 4.1 | 11 |
| 2013 | Cincinnati | 481 | 1,755 | 3.6 | 14 |
| 2014 | Washington | 401 | 1,691 | 4.2 | 15 |
| 2015 | Washington | 429 | 1,566 | 3.7 | 9 |
| 2016 | Washington | 379 | 1,696 | 4.5 | 17 |
| 2017 | Washington | 401 | 1,448 | 3.6 | 10 |
—Ian Allan