The Panthers are handing over their offense to Norv Turner. They fired Mike Shula (which I had no problem with) but I wonder if Turner’s still a capable coordinator? He’s 65, and it’s possible his approach has gotten stale as the game has evolved.
Turner, of course, won some Super Bowls with the Cowboys in the ‘90s, drawing up plays for Aikman, Emmitt and Irvin. But that was a long time ago. Robert Jones, for example, was a linebacker on that team, and now he son is playing in the league (as a wide receiver for the Bills).
When we last saw Turner, he was arguing with Mike Zimmer and then abruptly re-signing halfway through the 2016 season. He spent last year out of football.
Turner tends to like to use more deep passes than most coaches, asking quarterbacks to take deep drops and hold the ball longer. But I wonder if such an approach would work in Carolina. The Panthers don’t really have the right kind of wide receivers for that offense, and pass protection could be an issue.
In each of Turner’s last four full seasons, his offenses have allowed at least 45 sacks. Are we just signing up Cam Newton to take a bunch of hits? And using standard fantasy scoring, none of his last five offenses have ranked in the top 10 in passing production. (On the chart here, “points” is passing production using 6 points for touchdown passes and 1 for every 10 yards. “Rank” shows how the team finished 1 thru 32 in each of those seasons.)
| NORV TURNER OFFENSES (PASSING) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Pct | Yards | TD | Int | Sac | Points | Rk |
| 1997 | Washington | 51.7% | 3,581 | 22 | 22 | 33 | 490.1 | 13 |
| 1998 | Washington | 53.8% | 3,724 | 24 | 14 | 61 | 516.4 | 10 |
| 1999 | Washington | 60.3% | 4,112 | 26 | 14 | 31 | 567.2 | 6 |
| 2000 | Washington | 61.1% | 3,892 | 18 | 21 | 32 | 497.2 | 13 |
| 2001 | San Diego | 56.4% | 3,685 | 16 | 18 | 27 | 464.5 | 19 |
| 2002 | Miami | 59.6% | 3,069 | 18 | 15 | 25 | 414.9 | 27 |
| 2003 | Miami | 57.1% | 3,001 | 17 | 19 | 31 | 402.1 | 25 |
| 2004 | Oakland | 56.7% | 4,019 | 24 | 22 | 30 | 545.9 | 11 |
| 2005 | Oakland | 53.5% | 3,883 | 21 | 14 | 45 | 514.3 | 10 |
| 2006 | San Francisco | 57.9% | 2,890 | 16 | 16 | 36 | 385.0 | 29 |
| 2007 | San Diego | 59.7% | 3,175 | 22 | 16 | 24 | 449.5 | 23 |
| 2008 | San Diego | 65.3% | 4,009 | 34 | 11 | 25 | 604.9 | 3 |
| 2009 | San Diego | 65.1% | 4,506 | 29 | 10 | 26 | 624.6 | 6 |
| 2010 | San Diego | 66.0% | 4,746 | 30 | 13 | 38 | 654.6 | 3 |
| 2011 | San Diego | 62.9% | 4,624 | 27 | 20 | 30 | 624.4 | 7 |
| 2012 | San Diego | 64.0% | 3,606 | 26 | 15 | 49 | 516.6 | 16 |
| 2013 | Cleveland | 55.7% | 4,372 | 26 | 20 | 49 | 593.2 | 12 |
| 2014 | Minnesota | 62.3% | 3,244 | 17 | 18 | 51 | 426.4 | 27 |
| 2015 | Minnesota | 64.8% | 3,246 | 14 | 9 | 45 | 408.6 | 31 |
| 2016 | Minnesota | 70.4% | 4,119 | 20 | 5 | 38 | 531.9 | 19 |
Turner has had a lot of success with running backs in the past – Emmitt Smith, LaDainian Tomlinson, Terry Allen, Stephen Davis – but his offenses have tailed off in that regard. Only two of his last eight teams have had an 800-yard rusher.
Looking at his last 20 teams (I don’t care what he did with Dallas in the early ‘90s), only 25 percent of those teams ranked in the top 10 in rushing. Three of his last five have ranked higher than 30th.
| NORV TURNER OFFENSES (RUSHING) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Att | Yards | Avg | TD | Points | Rk |
| 1997 | Washington | 453 | 1,615 | 3.6 | 12 | 233.5 | 20 |
| 1998 | Washington | 401 | 1,685 | 4.2 | 15 | 258.5 | 14 |
| 1999 | Washington | 463 | 2,039 | 4.4 | 23 | 341.9 | 1 |
| 2000 | Washington | 445 | 1,748 | 3.9 | 14 | 258.8 | 19 |
| 2001 | San Diego | 435 | 1,695 | 3.9 | 13 | 247.5 | 14 |
| 2002 | Miami | 530 | 2,502 | 4.7 | 24 | 394.2 | 2 |
| 2003 | Miami | 487 | 1,817 | 3.7 | 14 | 265.7 | 16 |
| 2004 | Oakland | 327 | 1,295 | 4.0 | 10 | 189.5 | 32 |
| 2005 | Oakland | 361 | 1,369 | 3.8 | 11 | 202.9 | 25 |
| 2006 | San Francisco | 438 | 2,172 | 5.0 | 12 | 289.2 | 12 |
| 2007 | San Diego | 485 | 2,039 | 4.2 | 19 | 317.9 | 3 |
| 2008 | San Diego | 421 | 1,726 | 4.1 | 13 | 250.6 | 21 |
| 2009 | San Diego | 427 | 1,423 | 3.3 | 17 | 244.3 | 18 |
| 2010 | San Diego | 457 | 1,810 | 4.0 | 18 | 289.0 | 10 |
| 2011 | San Diego | 436 | 1,864 | 4.3 | 16 | 282.4 | 11 |
| 2012 | San Diego | 411 | 1,461 | 3.6 | 4 | 170.1 | 30 |
| 2013 | Cleveland | 348 | 1,383 | 4.0 | 4 | 162.3 | 32 |
| 2014 | Minnesota | 413 | 1,804 | 4.4 | 12 | 252.4 | 17 |
| 2015 | Minnesota | 474 | 2,211 | 4.7 | 18 | 329.1 | 3 |
| 2016 | Minnesota | 380 | 1,205 | 3.2 | 9 | 174.5 | 32 |
It’s early. I’m not exactly sure what Turner’s going to try to do. But I’m not overly optimistic about Carolina’s offense.
—Ian Allan