Over the weekend, Jets coach Todd Bowles said he wouldn't hesitate to start a rookie quarterback, even though the team already has Josh McCown and Teddy Bridgewater. "At the end of training camp, if you’re a rookie and you are where we need you to be, you play," said Bowles. Few teams actually say this, but that's generally how it's played out in recent years.
Over the last 10 years, there been 27 quarterbacks selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. More than two-thirds (20) of them ended up starting more than half of the season and throwing at least 300 passes, and two more started at least six games and were over 200 attempts (Deshaun Watson, but for injury, would have been well over that). Of the five exceptions, four were pretty much busts; too soon to say on Patrick Mahomes.
Not to say that starting more than half the season guarantees they'll go on to be great pros. Plenty of busy rookies have also busted. But Aaron Rodgers sitting on the bench for three years -- that just doesn't happen anymore with first-round picks.
There will probably be five quarterbacks selected in the first round on Thursday night; maybe even six. Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Mayfield, Jackson, and maybe Rudolph. Even though most will be drafted where there's a clear veteran ahead of them, recent history says they'll probably play plenty this season.
FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS, ROOKIE NUMBERS (2008-2017) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Pk | Player | Comp | Att | Yards | TD | St |
2012 | 1 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 339 | 627 | 4374 | 23 | 16 |
2016 | 2 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 379 | 607 | 3782 | 16 | 16 |
2010 | 1 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 354 | 590 | 3512 | 18 | 16 |
2015 | 1 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 312 | 535 | 4042 | 22 | 16 |
2011 | 1 | Cam Newton, Car. | 310 | 517 | 4051 | 21 | 16 |
2012 | 8 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 282 | 484 | 3294 | 12 | 16 |
2008 | 3 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 265 | 434 | 3440 | 16 | 16 |
2008 | 18 | Joe Flacco, Balt. | 257 | 428 | 2971 | 14 | 16 |
2012 | 22 | Brandon Weeden, Clev. | 297 | 517 | 3385 | 14 | 15 |
2012 | 2 | Robert Griffin III, Wash. | 258 | 393 | 3200 | 20 | 15 |
2009 | 5 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 196 | 364 | 2444 | 12 | 15 |
2011 | 10 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 210 | 413 | 2214 | 12 | 14 |
2014 | 3 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 280 | 475 | 2908 | 11 | 13 |
2014 | 32 | Teddy Bridgewater, Minn. | 259 | 402 | 2919 | 14 | 12 |
2015 | 2 | Marcus Mariota, Tenn. | 230 | 370 | 2818 | 19 | 12 |
2017 | 2 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 196 | 330 | 2193 | 7 | 12 |
2009 | 1 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 201 | 377 | 2267 | 13 | 10 |
2013 | 16 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 180 | 306 | 1972 | 11 | 10 |
2011 | 12 | Christian Ponder, Minn. | 158 | 291 | 1853 | 13 | 10 |
2009 | 17 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | 158 | 290 | 1855 | 10 | 9 |
2016 | 1 | Jared Goff, L.A. | 112 | 205 | 1089 | 5 | 7 |
2017 | 12 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 126 | 204 | 1699 | 19 | 6 |
2010 | 25 | Tim Tebow, Den. | 41 | 82 | 654 | 5 | 3 |
2016 | 26 | Paxton Lynch, Den. | 49 | 83 | 497 | 2 | 2 |
2014 | 22 | Johnny Manziel, Clev. | 18 | 35 | 175 | 0 | 2 |
2017 | 10 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 22 | 35 | 284 | 0 | 1 |
2011 | 8 | Jake Locker, Tenn. | 34 | 66 | 542 | 4 | 0 |
--Andy Richardson