Fantasy Index

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Factoid

San Francisco passing game

Kyle Shanahan's QBs put up yards but not touchdowns

Kyle Shanahan is a different kind of coach. His quarterbacks tend to put up a lot of yards, yet they have a tendency to fall short in the red zone.

I was playing around with some numbers. Only three times in the last 10 years has an offense ranked in the top 10 in passing yards but the bottom 10 in touchdown passes. Two of those offenses belonged to Shanahan – the 49ers last year, and the Falcons in 2015. The 2015 Ravens (with our old friend Joe Flacco) are the other team in this group. Another offense with ties to Shanahan – his holdover offense in Atlanta from last year – falls just short of getting in that group.

Over the last 10 years, Shanahan’s various offenses have averaged 262 passing yards, which is really good, but only three of those offenses finished with more than 21 TD passes.

Something about how he’s calling games tends to result in fewer passing touchdowns than you would think his offenses should be scoring.

I don’t want to get into trying to list all these teams by ranks, because with touchdown passes there are too many ties. So I will instead present them a slightly different way. Look at yards per touchdown pass. That is, take passing yards and divide them by touchdowns passes. If you have a low number, that means you’re putting the ball in the end zone. The Packers and Broncos had seasons with over 50 TD passes, for example, and they both averaged a touchdown pass for about every 101 yards, which is outstanding.

Over the last 10 years, there have been 320 teams. A quarter of those teams (80) averaged over 200 yards per touchdown pass. Shanahan has coached 10 teams, and seven of them are in that group of 80. (I’ve got them in bold).

So for the 2018 49ers, with up-and-coming Jimmy Garoppolo, I would guess that they’ll finish in the top 10 in passing yards but more likely finish as either average or below-average in touchdown passes.

YARDS PER TOUCHDOWN PASS (last 10 years)
YearTeamYardsTDAvg
2012Kansas City 2,9378367.1
2011St. Louis Rams3,2589362.0
2010Arizona Cardinals3,26410326.4
2012Arizona Cardinals3,38311307.5
2008St. Louis Rams3,26811297.1
2010Carolina Panthers2,6359292.8
2014Cleveland Browns3,46512288.8
2009Oakland Raiders2,87510287.5
2017San Francisco 49ers4,23515282.3
2015St. Louis Rams2,93111266.5
2012Miami Dolphins3,42513263.5
2011Kansas City 3,28813252.9
2010Seattle Seahawks3,53614252.6
2013New York Jets3,27013251.5
2017Indianapolis Colts3,22613248.2
2009St. Louis Rams2,97012247.5
2010Cleveland Browns3,20313246.4
2016Cleveland Browns3,69315246.2
2008Cincinnati Bengals2,67711243.4
2017Tennessee Titans3,39414242.4
2008Jacksonville Jaguars3,62015241.3
2009Jacksonville Jaguars3,59915239.9
2010Minnesota Vikings3,32714237.6
2016Philadelphia Eagles3,79816237.4
2017Chicago Bears3,08513237.3
2016Los Angeles Rams3,31314236.6
2008Buffalo Bills3,30214235.9
2017Cleveland Browns3,53715235.8
2008Washington3,29114235.1
2013Jacksonville Jaguars3,75116234.4
2016Cincinnati Bengals4,20618233.7
2012Detroit Lions5,13922233.6
2015Minnesota Vikings3,24614231.9
2008Cleveland Browns2,53711230.6
2011Indianapolis Colts3,22314230.2
2015Dallas Cowboys3,67716229.8
2011Seattle Seahawks3,44415229.6
2012Cleveland Browns3,66816229.3
2015San Francisco 49ers3,64616227.9
2016Houston Texans3,41815227.9
2016New York Jets3,64516227.8
2012New York Jets3,17814227.0
2009Miami Dolphins3,39615226.4
2012Philadelphia Eagles4,07518226.4
2011Tampa Bay Buccaneers3,83817225.8
2014Washington4,04718224.8
2008Tennessee Titans2,90213223.2
2015Denver Broncos4,21619221.9
2010Miami Dolphins3,75517220.9
2013Houston Texans4,18319220.2
2008Carolina Panthers3,28815219.2
2015Atlanta Falcons4,60221219.1
2016Chicago Bears4,13919217.8
2016Baltimore Ravens4,34320217.2
2009Detroit Lions3,47116216.9
2009New York Jets2,59612216.3
2013New York Giants3,87518215.3
2008Atlanta Falcons3,44016215.0
2011Washington4,05819213.6
2013Oakland Raiders3,62917213.5
2008Houston Texans4,47421213.0
2015Baltimore Ravens4,44921211.9
2013Buffalo Bills3,37316210.8
2008Tampa Bay Buccaneers3,78818210.4
2012Tennessee Titans3,57717210.4
2011Jacksonville Jaguars2,51012209.2
2015Cleveland Browns4,15620207.8
2012Carolina Panthers3,92719206.7
2011Pittsburgh Steelers4,33321206.3
2011Cleveland Browns3,30016206.3
2013Baltimore Ravens3,91419206.0
2016Kansas City 3,91419206.0
2016Minnesota Vikings4,11920206.0
2011Oakland Raiders4,11920206.0
2009Cleveland Browns2,25511205.0
2010Washington4,27921203.8
2008Oakland Raiders2,63913203.0
2013Washington4,05720202.9
2013Minnesota Vikings3,64518202.5
2014Jacksonville Jaguars3,00115200.1

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index