Kyle Shanahan is a different kind of coach. His quarterbacks tend to put up a lot of yards, yet they have a tendency to fall short in the red zone.
I was playing around with some numbers. Only three times in the last 10 years has an offense ranked in the top 10 in passing yards but the bottom 10 in touchdown passes. Two of those offenses belonged to Shanahan – the 49ers last year, and the Falcons in 2015. The 2015 Ravens (with our old friend Joe Flacco) are the other team in this group. Another offense with ties to Shanahan – his holdover offense in Atlanta from last year – falls just short of getting in that group.
Over the last 10 years, Shanahan’s various offenses have averaged 262 passing yards, which is really good, but only three of those offenses finished with more than 21 TD passes.
Something about how he’s calling games tends to result in fewer passing touchdowns than you would think his offenses should be scoring.
I don’t want to get into trying to list all these teams by ranks, because with touchdown passes there are too many ties. So I will instead present them a slightly different way. Look at yards per touchdown pass. That is, take passing yards and divide them by touchdowns passes. If you have a low number, that means you’re putting the ball in the end zone. The Packers and Broncos had seasons with over 50 TD passes, for example, and they both averaged a touchdown pass for about every 101 yards, which is outstanding.
Over the last 10 years, there have been 320 teams. A quarter of those teams (80) averaged over 200 yards per touchdown pass. Shanahan has coached 10 teams, and seven of them are in that group of 80. (I’ve got them in bold).
So for the 2018 49ers, with up-and-coming Jimmy Garoppolo, I would guess that they’ll finish in the top 10 in passing yards but more likely finish as either average or below-average in touchdown passes.
YARDS PER TOUCHDOWN PASS (last 10 years) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Yards | TD | Avg |
2012 | Kansas City | 2,937 | 8 | 367.1 |
2011 | St. Louis Rams | 3,258 | 9 | 362.0 |
2010 | Arizona Cardinals | 3,264 | 10 | 326.4 |
2012 | Arizona Cardinals | 3,383 | 11 | 307.5 |
2008 | St. Louis Rams | 3,268 | 11 | 297.1 |
2010 | Carolina Panthers | 2,635 | 9 | 292.8 |
2014 | Cleveland Browns | 3,465 | 12 | 288.8 |
2009 | Oakland Raiders | 2,875 | 10 | 287.5 |
2017 | San Francisco 49ers | 4,235 | 15 | 282.3 |
2015 | St. Louis Rams | 2,931 | 11 | 266.5 |
2012 | Miami Dolphins | 3,425 | 13 | 263.5 |
2011 | Kansas City | 3,288 | 13 | 252.9 |
2010 | Seattle Seahawks | 3,536 | 14 | 252.6 |
2013 | New York Jets | 3,270 | 13 | 251.5 |
2017 | Indianapolis Colts | 3,226 | 13 | 248.2 |
2009 | St. Louis Rams | 2,970 | 12 | 247.5 |
2010 | Cleveland Browns | 3,203 | 13 | 246.4 |
2016 | Cleveland Browns | 3,693 | 15 | 246.2 |
2008 | Cincinnati Bengals | 2,677 | 11 | 243.4 |
2017 | Tennessee Titans | 3,394 | 14 | 242.4 |
2008 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3,620 | 15 | 241.3 |
2009 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3,599 | 15 | 239.9 |
2010 | Minnesota Vikings | 3,327 | 14 | 237.6 |
2016 | Philadelphia Eagles | 3,798 | 16 | 237.4 |
2017 | Chicago Bears | 3,085 | 13 | 237.3 |
2016 | Los Angeles Rams | 3,313 | 14 | 236.6 |
2008 | Buffalo Bills | 3,302 | 14 | 235.9 |
2017 | Cleveland Browns | 3,537 | 15 | 235.8 |
2008 | Washington | 3,291 | 14 | 235.1 |
2013 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3,751 | 16 | 234.4 |
2016 | Cincinnati Bengals | 4,206 | 18 | 233.7 |
2012 | Detroit Lions | 5,139 | 22 | 233.6 |
2015 | Minnesota Vikings | 3,246 | 14 | 231.9 |
2008 | Cleveland Browns | 2,537 | 11 | 230.6 |
2011 | Indianapolis Colts | 3,223 | 14 | 230.2 |
2015 | Dallas Cowboys | 3,677 | 16 | 229.8 |
2011 | Seattle Seahawks | 3,444 | 15 | 229.6 |
2012 | Cleveland Browns | 3,668 | 16 | 229.3 |
2015 | San Francisco 49ers | 3,646 | 16 | 227.9 |
2016 | Houston Texans | 3,418 | 15 | 227.9 |
2016 | New York Jets | 3,645 | 16 | 227.8 |
2012 | New York Jets | 3,178 | 14 | 227.0 |
2009 | Miami Dolphins | 3,396 | 15 | 226.4 |
2012 | Philadelphia Eagles | 4,075 | 18 | 226.4 |
2011 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3,838 | 17 | 225.8 |
2014 | Washington | 4,047 | 18 | 224.8 |
2008 | Tennessee Titans | 2,902 | 13 | 223.2 |
2015 | Denver Broncos | 4,216 | 19 | 221.9 |
2010 | Miami Dolphins | 3,755 | 17 | 220.9 |
2013 | Houston Texans | 4,183 | 19 | 220.2 |
2008 | Carolina Panthers | 3,288 | 15 | 219.2 |
2015 | Atlanta Falcons | 4,602 | 21 | 219.1 |
2016 | Chicago Bears | 4,139 | 19 | 217.8 |
2016 | Baltimore Ravens | 4,343 | 20 | 217.2 |
2009 | Detroit Lions | 3,471 | 16 | 216.9 |
2009 | New York Jets | 2,596 | 12 | 216.3 |
2013 | New York Giants | 3,875 | 18 | 215.3 |
2008 | Atlanta Falcons | 3,440 | 16 | 215.0 |
2011 | Washington | 4,058 | 19 | 213.6 |
2013 | Oakland Raiders | 3,629 | 17 | 213.5 |
2008 | Houston Texans | 4,474 | 21 | 213.0 |
2015 | Baltimore Ravens | 4,449 | 21 | 211.9 |
2013 | Buffalo Bills | 3,373 | 16 | 210.8 |
2008 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3,788 | 18 | 210.4 |
2012 | Tennessee Titans | 3,577 | 17 | 210.4 |
2011 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 2,510 | 12 | 209.2 |
2015 | Cleveland Browns | 4,156 | 20 | 207.8 |
2012 | Carolina Panthers | 3,927 | 19 | 206.7 |
2011 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 4,333 | 21 | 206.3 |
2011 | Cleveland Browns | 3,300 | 16 | 206.3 |
2013 | Baltimore Ravens | 3,914 | 19 | 206.0 |
2016 | Kansas City | 3,914 | 19 | 206.0 |
2016 | Minnesota Vikings | 4,119 | 20 | 206.0 |
2011 | Oakland Raiders | 4,119 | 20 | 206.0 |
2009 | Cleveland Browns | 2,255 | 11 | 205.0 |
2010 | Washington | 4,279 | 21 | 203.8 |
2008 | Oakland Raiders | 2,639 | 13 | 203.0 |
2013 | Washington | 4,057 | 20 | 202.9 |
2013 | Minnesota Vikings | 3,645 | 18 | 202.5 |
2014 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3,001 | 15 | 200.1 |
—Ian Allan