"Skill-position" can seem rather unfair. Playing cornerback isn't a skill? But for most fantasy leagues, and in the eyes of most of the media, what the vast majority of the people care about is where the quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends will end up. Here's my stab at where the biggest names at those positions will land.
To be clear, these are my guesses based on everything I've read over the past couple of months -- dozens of guesses and predictions and mocks by other media types, former GMs and actual professional talent evaluators. I've boiled all those wild guesses down into the ones that make the most sense to me.
I really dislike people writing stuff about, for example, a team "cooling" on such and such a player, or "having narrowed it down to these two players." The Browns know which quarterback they're going to pick (or at least, John Dorsey does). He hasn't "recently cooled" on Darnold. He decided weeks ago, most likely, which quarterback he wants, just like the Giants have known for a while what they're going to do at No. 2, and so forth. Stories on risers and fallers by and large are people discovering things -- not teams changing their minds. They know.
Josh Allen: Cleveland Browns. This was the report a couple of weeks back, and since then we've seen them supposedly locked in on Darnold, or having narrowed it down to Allen and Mayfield. There was even a Peter King item a month back about a Dorsey friend saying they were going to pick Josh Rosen. Allen has some significant flaws but is widely believed to have the biggest upside, and the Browns, with nowhere to go but up and Tyrod Taylor in the house, can let him sit for a year or two and develop that upside. Why Hue Jackson is still around to possibly ruin him is beyond me, but maybe they'll take care of that shortly after the draft. Popular view this morning is the Browns will take Darnold. I'm guessing Allen, and this guess -- right or wrong -- affects the next several picks, too.
Sam Darnold: N.Y. Giants. Uh...I'm not sure on this one. Maybe they take Saquon Barkley, as pretty much everyone expects. What I'm thinking is that (again, this is based on an early-in-the-process report) Darnold is the QB they really like, and if the Browns take him, they'll draft Barkley, or trade down. But IF the Browns take Allen, the Giants will take Darnold. If the Browns do take Darnold, New York takes Barkley or trades down.
Baker Mayfield: N.Y. Jets. We know the Jets would have been happy with any of three different quarterbacks. There's absolutely no reason to give up so much to trade from No. 6 to No. 3 if you only like two of them. There's been some talk about Josh Rosen, and I think that's possible. But the fiery Mayfield feels like a Jet-like pick.
Josh Rosen: Buffalo Bills. I think the Arizona Cardinals are also a possibility, but more so if it's Mayfield available after the top 3 teams have picked. Buffalo desperately needs a quarterback, Rosen is the rookie most ready to start right away, and they have a lot more draft ammunition to trade up than Arizona. Maybe they trade to 4 with Cleveland, maybe 5 with the Broncos. Or maybe they stay put and take him; there's speculation Rosen isn't certain to be drafted as early as the other top quarterbacks.
Lamar Jackson: Baltimore Ravens. I'm not buying the Patriots' supposed interest in Jackson; I think it's a smokescreen. I also don't see him as a good fit in Arizona -- to be honest, I'm not really high on Jackson's NFL future, period. I think his best situation is to go somewhere where there's a veteran in place, and he can develop on the bench for at least a season. I don't think he's a sure thing, but the Ravens can afford to be patient. Note: Baltimore is also a strong candidate to select a tight end in the first round.
Saquon Barkley: Indianapolis Colts. Tampa Bay also looks like a good possibility, if I'm right about Barkley slipping out of the top 5 (in my scenario, Denver has traded down with a quarterback-needy Buffalo team). The Colts need defensive help most of all, but they also need an offensive playmaker to distract from all the lying they've done about Andrew Luck, and to help the offense if Luck doesn't come back 100 percent (or even if he does).
Derrius Guice: Detroit Lions. Initially I considered Carolina, despite them using a first-round pick on a running back a year ago. Far too little attention has been paid to the fact that they really have nothing else at running back besides McCaffrey, who is not a full-time player. But the Lions have got to change up their offense, and a new, workhorse-type running back should be part of it.
Sony Michel: Denver Broncos. I can't rule out them taking Barkley if he's available at No. 5 in the first round. But they pick early in the second, and might be able to draft Michel at that spot (or even later, if this "bone-on-bone" report about his knee is correct). Denver has plenty of offensive needs, but I'm trusting that they're comfortable with Case Keenum starting for them the next two years. Or maybe they're planning on waiting for the Giants to release Eli Manning a year from now and bring him in. Anyway, Michel would give the offense a game-changing talent in the backfield, which they haven't had for some time.
Calvin Ridley: Dallas Cowboys. Obviously, the Cowboys are in desperate need of receiving help. Three stand out atop the draft, Ridley, D.J. Moore and Courtland Sutton. Dallas might well like the bigger, more physical Sutton better, but Ridley is the most likely to be able to step in as a starter right away, and that's what the Cowboys really need.
Courtland Sutton: Atlanta Falcons. Just a hunch here, but the Falcons needs an influx of young talent at wide receiver. Julio Jones is 29 and has a history of soft-tissue injuries; Mohamed Sanu turns 29 during the season. Sutton would make sense for a lot of different teams, but Atlanta has prioritized defense early the last couple of drafts; I think they'll go offense here.
D.J. Moore: Buffalo Bills. OK, I've got the Bills moving up for a quarterback. Will be difficult for them to do that and also snag one of the draft's top wide receivers. But for the sake of discussion, let's say they're unable to move up for the quarterback they want, and actually need to use their two first-round picks. If so, or if say Rosen falls to them at #12, they could then use their second pick on a wide receiver -- arguably as big a need for this franchise as quarterback.
Dallas Goedert: New England Patriots. All the talk about the Patriots determined to land their quarterback of the future in the first round feels to me like a Bill Belichick-generated smokescreen. I think they're comfortable that Tom Brady is playing at a high level for another couple of years, or they wouldn't have dealt Garoppolo. Or that they can pull a franchise quarterback out of the second or third round. Anyway, all this quarterback talk is to distract from the guy they're actually going to need to replace within a year, Rob Gronkowski. New England is drafting a tight end in the first or second round -- book it.
Hayden Hurst: New Orleans Saints. The Saints are also taking a tight end early. Amusing to see these reports calling Coby Fleener a "slight disappointment." Slight disappointment? He's terrible. Like New England, New Orleans will draft a TE early.
I can't promise any of these predictions will be right -- I might get every single one wrong, right from who the Browns take at No. 1. But we'll see. Feel free to post your own predictions for these players below, and we'll tally it up Thursday morning.