Round 1 of the NFL Draft is in the books. There were some surprises, although maybe not as many as you'd expect. All the teams most believed to be interested in drafting a quarterback, for example, actually drafted a quarterback. Plenty more draft to go, but here are some quick takes on the first-rounders of most interest in fantasy leagues, in order.
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland. Our lean is usually to give the team that studied these players most closely the benefit of the doubt with their choices. The Browns analyzed all the incoming quarterbacks and decided Mayfield had the brightest NFL future. The problem with giving them the benefit of the doubt is they've messed up so many decisions over the last 20 years. And they've got a lame-duck head coach who inspires no confidence that he's the right guy to groom a young quarterback. At least there's some talent there for when he does take over.
Saquon Barkley, Giants. I resisted this development strictly because it was so hard to imagine the Giants, with 38-year-old, declining Eli Manning at quarterback, staying at No. 2 to take a running back. But they did, and no question he'll make the offense better, and certainly make a big impact as a receiver and probably get more carries than aging Jonathan Stewart. The Giants should be a contender in the NFC, and they're going to sell a lot of Barkley jerseys. Fantasy-wise, Barkley is certainly more appealing in this offense than he would have been in say Cleveland. He's a first-round fantasy pick, I think.
Sam Darnold, Jets. Story in the Daily News indicates Darnold was the Jets' top quarterback; that they expected him to be gone and to settle for another passer. We'll never know for sure. What we do know, as with the Browns, is it's hard to have a ton of confidence in their evaluation skills -- this is the same decision-making group that used a second-round pick on Christian Hackenburg, after all, and has been deathly afraid of putting him on the field for two years. I like Darnold, and think having Josh McCown around to mentor him will be a plus. But the offensive talent around him looks suspect at best, and he may well wind up playing too early. He's 20 years old.
Josh Allen, Buffalo. Allen needs some development and is as boom-or-bust as quarterbacks get, alternately compared to Carson Wentz and, uh, Kyle Boller. So no ideal that he's landing in a spot where the Bills could sour on AJ McCarron after a handful of starts and chuck him into the lineup, kind of like they did last year with Nathan Peterman. Their offensive line was gutted by free agency and retirement (oh wait, Richie Incognito changed his mind) and their receiving corps can politely be described as not good. Not optimistic about Allen.
Josh Rosen, Arizona. I'm not a huge Rosen fan, but I do like his landing spot. Arizona has some nice skill-position guys (their line is poor, unfortunately), and since Rosen is considered to be fairly pro-ready, they'll be in good shape for when Sam Bradford gets hurt. Not a runner so hard to see great fantasy appeal, but fits the mold of recent Cardinals passers.
D.J. Moore, Carolina. Moore is popularly (and accurately) compared to Panthers legend Steve Smith, so this is fitting. (Alas, it isn't great for my rookie pick in both dynasty leagues last year, Curtis Samuel.) Moore looks to be the rookie receiver likeliest to make a Year One impact; Carolina doesn't have anyone certain to keep him off the field. And he's better than other recent rookie wideouts who found themselves in similar situations, e.g. Zay Jones. I'm picking 7th in my rookie draft next week and imagine Moore will be gone, oh well.
Hayden Hurst, Baltimore. Thought the Ravens would take a TE in the first, and so they did. Hurst is a natural receiver who should be a big part of Baltimore's passing game as soon as he gets on the field, perhaps right away. Evan Engram showed that it's possible for rookie tight ends to make an immediate impact, even if odds are against them. Hurst turns 25 in August, worrying not because it's so old but because he was more mature than the college defenders he dominated.
Calvin Ridley, Atlanta. Although I didn't get the right wideout, I did expect the Falcons to take a wide receiver early. It's a great landing spot, I think, maybe not in 2018, where he'll be the No. 3, but if and when Jones and Sanu miss time to injury, Ridley is polished enough that he should be able to step right in, and be their leading guy a couple of years down the road. Like the pick.
Rashad Penny, Seattle. The tough thing about the draft each year is when it douses our hopes for young players who we thought had breakout potential, ala Chris Carson. Evidently Seattle wasn't as excited about him as some dynasty owners. Penny wasn't more highly regarded a prospect than say Derrius Guice, at least by draft analysts, but maybe he should have been. Seattle is remaking its offense and Penny should quickly be the lead back. Probably a top-3 pick in rookie drafts.
Sony Michel, New England. I suspected the Patriots' palpably untrue interest in Lamar Jackson, who they passed on twice, was a smokescreen for their interest in a tight end. And maybe they wanted Hurst. But it was also a smokescreen for their interest in a running back, suspiciously rumored to be damaged goods this week by Belichick pal Mike Lombardi. Whatever, Michel looks like a real talent and should emerge as the lead back in New England, or as much as they ever have a lead back. Forget those shares of Jeremy Hill, and some cool water on the Rex Burkhead appeal, too.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore. When I watched a few Jackson games over the past week, I was a little mystified at the notion he'd be a top 20 pick (and convinced New England's supposed interest was false). He's a project, and it's fair to wonder if he'll make it in the NFL. But in Baltimore he won't need to play right away, and indeed won't, and that's a good thing for him. Certainly a compelling fantasy player once he gets in the lineup, but it won't be before 2019 -- at the earliest.