With the NFL Draft completed, rookie drafts in dynasty leagues are next up. Mine will be held next weekend, as it is each year, and I'll recap it here the next day, as I do each year. But first I'll predict how I think it might/should go.
This is a combination of what I think might happen -- it's not hard to find ADP data on incoming rookies, the Internet is a big place -- and what I think should happen, at this fairly early stage of analysis. Probably better, I think, to have your draft a little later, after the first rookie minicamp at the very least. But we're an eager bunch, and the more guesswork there is, the more fun (or the better off those of us who do our homework might be).
1.01. Saquon Barkley, NYG. If I had the 1.01 anywhere, I might put it on the trade block just to see what it would bring. People are so excited about Barkley, it's gotten a little out of whack. Saw a debate yesterday about whether Alvin Kamara should be traded for the pick. To me, the answer is Hell no. Anyway, Barkley will be the first selection.
1.02. Derrius Guice, Wash.
1.03. Sony Michel, N.E.
1.04. Rashaad Penny, Sea.
1.05. Ronald Jones, T.B.
Lumping these four together because I'm not really certain what the order will be. I think these will be not only the next four backs off the board (though perhaps Nick Chubb sneaks in) but probably the next four picks, too. I think I'd probably take Michel, drafted before all but Penny, going to the best offense, seemingly the most dynamic. Guice and Penny won't be involved as receivers. Jones has a Jamaal Charles-like build, and few of those types are as good as Charles. But he's going to a very good offense with very little at running back. If one of these guys should happen to fall to me at 1.07, I'll probably take him.
1.06. D.J. Moore, Car. I'm a sucker for Steve Smith types, and Smith himself thinks Moore is exactly that. "They've never been able to replace me...until now," tweeted the Panther great. Hard to get too excited about a Panther wideout, though, and just maybe Courtland Sutton should be the pick here instead.
1.07. Calvin Ridley, Atl. Ridley doesn't have standout traits, and may not be the best wideout in this class, but he's a talented guy going to work with a great quarterback and the two wideouts ahead of him are pushing 30. And maybe Ridley pushes Mohamed Sanu into a No. 3 role fairly quickly anyway.
1.08. Courtland Sutton, Den. As with Ridley in Atlanta, Sutton wound up in a questionable spot for 2018 value but nice, potentially, long-term. Quarterback situation a little less certain over the next few years than in Atlanta, but Sutton should be the No. 3 in short order.
1.09. Nick Chubb, Clev. Maybe I'm underselling Chubb a little; I suppose he'll likely be drafted ahead of at least a couple of the wideouts I've placed earlier. But it's Cleveland, which isn't terribly exciting. he'll be hustled off the field at any semblance of a passing situation, and the Browns are also paying Carlos Hyde good money. Plus Chubb didn't thrill the eyes much in his committee with Michel last year. Somebody might take him earlier than this, but it won't be me.
1.10. Kerryon Johnson, Det.The Lions have an abominable clutter in the running back room, but LeGarrette Blount is on his latest one-year deal, Ameer Abdullah is probably headed out of town, and Theo Riddick is a warm body pass catcher who can't stick on the roster forever. A year from now maybe Johnson is a three-down back. Injury history, but he played through them quite often.
1.11. Royce Freeman, Den. Landing spot will probably get Freeman selected this early. C.J. Anderson was released and Devontae Booker has shown nothing. Denver also has DeAngelo Henderson, but Freeman has a great shot to earn the starting job out of camp.
1.12. Michael Gallup, Dall. People fall in love with landing spots, and certainly Gallup is in a good one for immediate value. That doesn't always work out (think Zay Jones), but Gallup is a nice enough prospect.
2.1. Anthony Miller, Chic.
2.2. Christian Kirk, Ariz.
2.3. James Washington, Pitt.
2.4. Antonio Callaway, Clev.
2.5. Dante Pettis, S.F.
If the first round will be all about the running backs, and it will be, the second round should be all about the wide receivers. Miller and Kirk are my favorites, and the fact I have Chad Williams, Arizona's third-rounder last year, on my roster makes me particularly hopeful of hedging that bet by adding Kirk.
2.6. Mike Gesicki, Mia. The Dolphins braintrust doesn't inspire much confidence it knows what it's doing, but Gesicki was the top tight end in the class and Miami keeps taking shots at finding one in free agency and the draft. My league gives TEs 1.5 points per receptions, incidentally.
2.7. Baker Mayfield, Clev. This feels like the right spot for the first quarterback. What's interesting about this class is although four went in the top 10 picks, none are really sure things. Mid- to late-second round is about where quarterbacks usually go in rookie drafts, unless there's an Andrew Luck in the field.
2.8. Hayden Hurst, Balt. Another candidate for top tight end in the class; he may actually be drafted before Gesicki, as he was in the actual draft. But since the Ravens hedged by selecting another tight end two rounds later, and annually dust off some creaky veteran and give him snaps, and Hurst is 25 years old, it's hard to really love the player.
2.9. D.J. Chark, Jac. Somebody will jump on Chark. To me he will have a hard time emerging in Jacksonville, which has some receiving depth and guys I like better than him.
2.10. Sam Darnold, NYJ. Many felt he was the best quarterback in the draft. The Browns are the only team we can say for certain didn't. I like taking shots at young quarterbacks and could see myself drafting him.
2.11. Equanimeous St. Brown, G.B. Packer wide receiver, he'll get drafted around here even though he was a sixth-round pick.
2.12. Lamar Jackson, Balt. I have serious doubts about whether Jackson can make it as a quarterback in the NFL. But plenty of smart people believe he will, and if he does he'll be a fantasy difference-maker. Somebody will roll the dice on his upside here.
3.1. TreQuan Smith, N.O.
3.2. Dallas Goedert, Phil.
3.3. Ian Thomas, Car.
3.4. Jordan Wilkins, Ind.
3.5. Josh Rosen, Ariz.
3.6. Nyheim Hines, Ind.
3.7. Justin Jackson, LAC.
3.8. Chase Edmonds, Ariz.
3.9. Mark Walton, Cin.
3.10. DaeSean Hamilton, Den.
3.11. Deon Cain, Ind.
3.12. John Kelly, LAR
The third round is filled with young running backs and wide receivers that people will take stabs at, often based on their own rosters (if I had Todd Gurley, for example, I'd take Kelly; if I had Devonta Freeman, I might draft Ito Smith). Most third-round picks in this league last midway through the preseason, then got dropped for guys making more of an impact in the exhibitions.
Next week I'll come back and recap how the draft actually went.