What do we make of Drew Brees? He’s been great for a lot of years, but his offense turned awfully conservative last year. Is he still an elite fantasy option?
In each of Brees’ first 11 seasons in New Orleans, he put up top-5 fantasy numbers. That’s using standard scoring, and I’m talking per-game production. Brees almost never misses a game, so he would rank a lot higher when looking at cumulative total production (elevating him above 2010 Michael Vick, for example: Vick was very good that year but started only 12 games). On the per-game ranks below, you’re seeing how Brees performed in comparison with other quarterbacks starting at least half the season.
He’s been awesome. Over the last 10 years prior to last season, he averaged 312 passing yards per game and 36 TD passes per season. Most quarterbacks never have a season at that level; he did it over an entire decade.
But the Saints re-worked their offense last year, relying a lot more on the run. Brees averaged only 271 passing yards, with just 23 TD passes. So for per-game production, he was only the 13th-best quarterback.
So where does that leave us for 2018? Brees is still capable. If they go back to the wide-open passing approach we’ve seen in the past, he’ll put up top-5 quarterbacking numbers. If either Mark Ingram or Alvin Kamara gets injured in September, that might trigger a move back to that kind of offense.
But the Saints had a lot of success last year running the ball. And if they stick with a more run-oriented offense, Brees (talented as he is) might not be a top-10 quarterback.
On the chart below, I’m not showing all of the numbers. You don’t see the rushing yards or the 2-point conversions. But those are included in the fantasy points per game (FPG) calculation. Also note that to make the info more digestible, I’m going with a mix of per-game (yards) and season-total stats.
| BREES: FANTASY POINTS PER GAME | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | St | Pass | TD | Int | TDR | FPG | Rnk |
| 2006 | 16 | 276 | 26 | 11 | 0 | 20.8 | 3rd |
| 2007 | 16 | 276 | 28 | 18 | 1 | 21.5 | 4th |
| 2008 | 16 | 317 | 34 | 17 | 0 | 24.3 | 1st |
| 2009 | 15 | 293 | 34 | 11 | 2 | 24.7 | 2nd |
| 2010 | 16 | 289 | 33 | 22 | 0 | 22.7 | 5th |
| 2011 | 16 | 342 | 46 | 14 | 1 | 29.8 | 2nd |
| 2012 | 16 | 324 | 43 | 19 | 1 | 27.3 | 1st |
| 2013 | 16 | 323 | 39 | 12 | 3 | 27.3 | 2nd |
| 2014 | 16 | 310 | 33 | 17 | 1 | 24.5 | 4th |
| 2015 | 15 | 325 | 32 | 11 | 1 | 25.3 | 4th |
| 2016 | 16 | 326 | 37 | 15 | 2 | 26.4 | 2nd |
| 2017 | 16 | 271 | 23 | 8 | 2 | 20.1 | 13th |
—Ian Allan