Strength of schedule doesn’t look like it will play a huge role this year. We can’t say for certain how things will play out, but it doesn’t look like there are any teams with schedules that are out of whack – the league is more balanced than usual.
The Houston Texans project to play the league’s easiest schedule. Their opponents went a combined 116-140 last year. That’s fine, but it’s not an unusually weak schedule for a team coming in at No. 1. In the last 10 years, there have been 26 other teams with schedules that projected to be even easier in the preseason.
EASIEST SCHEDULES, LAST 10 YEARS | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | W | L | T | Pct |
2015 | Atlanta | 104 | 150 | 2 | .410 |
2009 | Chicago | 105 | 149 | 2 | .414 |
2015 | Indianapolis | 106 | 149 | 1 | .416 |
2015 | Houston | 106 | 148 | 2 | .418 |
2009 | Minnesota | 107 | 148 | 1 | .420 |
2017 | Indianapolis | 107 | 146 | 3 | .424 |
2015 | Tampa Bay | 108 | 146 | 2 | .426 |
2009 | Green Bay | 109 | 146 | 1 | .428 |
2013 | Denver | 110 | 146 | 0 | .430 |
2014 | Indianapolis | 110 | 146 | 0 | .430 |
2015 | New Orleans | 109 | 145 | 2 | .430 |
2009 | Pittsburgh | 110 | 144 | 2 | .434 |
2015 | Carolina | 111 | 145 | 0 | .434 |
2015 | Tennessee | 111 | 144 | 1 | .436 |
2009 | Baltimore | 111 | 143 | 2 | .438 |
2014 | Tennessee | 112 | 144 | 0 | .438 |
2017 | Tennessee | 111 | 142 | 3 | .439 |
2017 | Jacksonville | 111 | 142 | 3 | .439 |
2009 | Arizona | 113 | 143 | 0 | .441 |
2011 | Arizona | 113 | 143 | 0 | .441 |
2014 | Houston | 113 | 143 | 0 | .441 |
2009 | San Francisco | 113 | 142 | 1 | .443 |
2010 | Arizona | 114 | 142 | 0 | .445 |
2009 | Cleveland | 114 | 140 | 2 | .449 |
2010 | St. Louis | 115 | 141 | 0 | .449 |
2017 | Cincinnati | 115 | 141 | 0 | .449 |
2010 | San Diego | 116 | 140 | 0 | .453 |
2010 | Seattle | 116 | 140 | 0 | .453 |
2012 | New England | 116 | 140 | 0 | .453 |
2014 | Jacksonville | 116 | 140 | 0 | .453 |
2017 | Pittsburgh | 115 | 139 | 2 | .453 |
2017 | Minnesota | 115 | 139 | 2 | .453 |
2018 | Houston | 116 | 140 | 0 | .453 |
2017 | Seattle | 115 | 138 | 3 | .455 |
2017 | Houston | 115 | 138 | 3 | .455 |
2009 | Seattle | 117 | 139 | 0 | .457 |
2010 | San Francisco | 117 | 139 | 0 | .457 |
2011 | Baltimore | 117 | 139 | 0 | .457 |
2013 | San Diego | 117 | 139 | 0 | .457 |
2016 | Green Bay | 117 | 139 | 0 | .457 |
2013 | Indianapolis | 117 | 137 | 2 | .461 |
2014 | Baltimore | 118 | 138 | 0 | .461 |
2016 | NY Giants | 118 | 138 | 0 | .461 |
2016 | Chicago | 118 | 138 | 0 | .461 |
And it’s the same coming from the other end. The Packers project to play the league’s hardest schedule (based on how teams performed last year). But over the last 10 years, 46 teams have entered the season projecting to play harder schedules.
I wouldn’t think it would help too much to let Strength of Schedule affect your decisions at drafts this year.
HARDEST SCHEDULES, LAST 10 YEARS | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | W | L | T | Pct |
2009 | Miami | 152 | 104 | 0 | .594 |
2009 | Carolina | 151 | 104 | 1 | .592 |
2009 | New England | 151 | 105 | 0 | .590 |
2009 | Atlanta | 150 | 105 | 1 | .588 |
2009 | Tampa Bay | 148 | 107 | 1 | .580 |
2014 | Oakland | 148 | 108 | 0 | .578 |
2015 | Pittsburgh | 147 | 107 | 2 | .578 |
2017 | Denver | 147 | 107 | 2 | .578 |
2017 | Kansas City | 147 | 108 | 1 | .576 |
2009 | Buffalo | 146 | 110 | 0 | .570 |
2014 | Denver | 146 | 110 | 0 | .570 |
2009 | NY Jets | 145 | 110 | 1 | .568 |
2017 | LA Chargers | 145 | 110 | 1 | .568 |
2014 | St. Louis | 144 | 111 | 1 | .564 |
2017 | Oakland | 144 | 111 | 1 | .564 |
2014 | San Diego | 144 | 112 | 0 | .563 |
2014 | San Francisco | 144 | 112 | 0 | .563 |
2015 | Cincinnati | 144 | 112 | 0 | .563 |
2014 | Seattle | 143 | 112 | 1 | .561 |
2015 | San Francisco | 143 | 112 | 1 | .561 |
2017 | Buffalo | 143 | 112 | 1 | .561 |
2014 | Kansas City | 143 | 113 | 0 | .559 |
2015 | Seattle | 142 | 112 | 2 | .559 |
2009 | New Orleans | 142 | 113 | 1 | .557 |
2015 | Arizona | 142 | 113 | 1 | .557 |
2011 | Carolina | 142 | 114 | 0 | .555 |
2016 | San Francisco | 142 | 114 | 0 | .555 |
2016 | Atlanta | 142 | 114 | 0 | .555 |
2015 | St. Louis | 141 | 114 | 1 | .553 |
2016 | Los Angeles | 141 | 115 | 0 | .551 |
2010 | Tennessee | 140 | 116 | 0 | .547 |
2010 | Houston | 140 | 116 | 0 | .547 |
2012 | NY Giants | 140 | 116 | 0 | .547 |
2014 | Arizona | 140 | 116 | 0 | .547 |
2016 | New Orleans | 140 | 116 | 0 | .547 |
2017 | Miami | 140 | 116 | 0 | .547 |
2015 | Kansas City | 139 | 116 | 1 | .545 |
2015 | Oakland | 139 | 116 | 1 | .545 |
2010 | Dallas | 139 | 117 | 0 | .543 |
2012 | Denver | 139 | 117 | 0 | .543 |
2013 | Carolina | 138 | 116 | 2 | .543 |
2015 | Cleveland | 138 | 116 | 2 | .543 |
2016 | Seattle | 139 | 117 | 0 | .543 |
2016 | Tampa Bay | 139 | 117 | 0 | .543 |
2017 | Washington | 138 | 116 | 2 | .543 |
2015 | Denver | 138 | 117 | 1 | .541 |
2015 | Minnesota | 138 | 118 | 0 | .539 |
2018 | Green Bay | 138 | 118 | 0 | .539 |
—Ian Allan