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Strength of schedule

2018 schedules look more modest than usual

Strength of schedule doesn’t look like it will play a huge role this year. We can’t say for certain how things will play out, but it doesn’t look like there are any teams with schedules that are out of whack – the league is more balanced than usual.

The Houston Texans project to play the league’s easiest schedule. Their opponents went a combined 116-140 last year. That’s fine, but it’s not an unusually weak schedule for a team coming in at No. 1. In the last 10 years, there have been 26 other teams with schedules that projected to be even easier in the preseason.

EASIEST SCHEDULES, LAST 10 YEARS
YearTeamWLTPct
2015Atlanta1041502.410
2009Chicago1051492.414
2015Indianapolis1061491.416
2015Houston1061482.418
2009Minnesota1071481.420
2017Indianapolis1071463.424
2015Tampa Bay1081462.426
2009Green Bay1091461.428
2013Denver1101460.430
2014Indianapolis1101460.430
2015New Orleans1091452.430
2009Pittsburgh1101442.434
2015Carolina1111450.434
2015Tennessee1111441.436
2009Baltimore1111432.438
2014Tennessee1121440.438
2017Tennessee1111423.439
2017Jacksonville1111423.439
2009Arizona1131430.441
2011Arizona1131430.441
2014Houston1131430.441
2009San Francisco1131421.443
2010Arizona1141420.445
2009Cleveland1141402.449
2010St. Louis1151410.449
2017Cincinnati1151410.449
2010San Diego1161400.453
2010Seattle1161400.453
2012New England1161400.453
2014Jacksonville1161400.453
2017Pittsburgh1151392.453
2017Minnesota1151392.453
2018Houston1161400.453
2017Seattle1151383.455
2017Houston1151383.455
2009Seattle1171390.457
2010San Francisco1171390.457
2011Baltimore1171390.457
2013San Diego1171390.457
2016Green Bay1171390.457
2013Indianapolis1171372.461
2014Baltimore1181380.461
2016NY Giants1181380.461
2016Chicago1181380.461

And it’s the same coming from the other end. The Packers project to play the league’s hardest schedule (based on how teams performed last year). But over the last 10 years, 46 teams have entered the season projecting to play harder schedules.

I wouldn’t think it would help too much to let Strength of Schedule affect your decisions at drafts this year.

HARDEST SCHEDULES, LAST 10 YEARS
YearTeamWLTPct
2009Miami1521040.594
2009Carolina1511041.592
2009New England1511050.590
2009Atlanta1501051.588
2009Tampa Bay1481071.580
2014Oakland1481080.578
2015Pittsburgh1471072.578
2017Denver1471072.578
2017Kansas City1471081.576
2009Buffalo1461100.570
2014Denver1461100.570
2009NY Jets1451101.568
2017LA Chargers1451101.568
2014St. Louis1441111.564
2017Oakland1441111.564
2014San Diego1441120.563
2014San Francisco1441120.563
2015Cincinnati1441120.563
2014Seattle1431121.561
2015San Francisco1431121.561
2017Buffalo1431121.561
2014Kansas City1431130.559
2015Seattle1421122.559
2009New Orleans1421131.557
2015Arizona1421131.557
2011Carolina1421140.555
2016San Francisco1421140.555
2016Atlanta1421140.555
2015St. Louis1411141.553
2016Los Angeles1411150.551
2010Tennessee1401160.547
2010Houston1401160.547
2012NY Giants1401160.547
2014Arizona1401160.547
2016New Orleans1401160.547
2017Miami1401160.547
2015Kansas City1391161.545
2015Oakland1391161.545
2010Dallas1391170.543
2012Denver1391170.543
2013Carolina1381162.543
2015Cleveland1381162.543
2016Seattle1391170.543
2016Tampa Bay1391170.543
2017Washington1381162.543
2015Denver1381171.541
2015Minnesota1381180.539
2018Green Bay1381180.539

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index