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Strength of schedule

Rushing- and passing-specific scheduling info

For me, I think it’s best to use strength of schedule information in November and December each year. You see how teams play in the first half of the season (giving you a significant amount of current data) and then plug those numbers into the back half of the schedule.

Preseason strength of schedule, I think, isn’t as good. A lot of teams will change a lot in the offseason, blowing everything all to hell. So I tend to go more basic and rudimentary with scheduling numbers in the offseason; they don’t have a big impact on my own board.

But some out there are fans of the scheduling stuff, and some are believers in trying to zero in on which teams will see the defenses tending to allow the most rushing and passing production. And it is possible for me to run those numbers.

The Broncos and Patriots, the numbers tell us, will tend to face the worst run defenses. Washington, Tampa Bay and the Giants, meanwhile, in theory should face the hardest run defenses.

All five of those teams, by the way, used first- or second-round picks on running backs. Royce Freeman and Sony Michel will face the easiest run schedules – over 10 percent easier, if form holds, than Derrius Guice, Saquon Barkley and Ronald Jones. But I will take Barkley, Guice and Jones before Michel and Freeman if we’re drafting today.

Here are the projections for all teams, using this year’s schedule and last year’s defensive stats. For yards, I’m showing the average per game. For touchdowns, I think it’s more intuitive to look at season totals. Fantasy points assumes 6 for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, RUSHING (Weeks 1-17)
TeamYd/GTD/YrPts/G
Denver11413.016.3
New England11113.616.2
Oakland11212.916.0
Chicago11013.316.0
Arizona11312.516.0
Tennessee11511.916.0
Miami11312.315.9
Green Bay11012.915.8
Minnesota11012.715.8
Cleveland11212.215.7
San Francisco11012.715.7
Carolina11112.315.7
LA Chargers10812.815.6
Baltimore10912.415.6
NY Jets10912.415.5
Cincinnati10812.415.5
Jacksonville11011.815.5
Kansas City11111.515.4
Pittsburgh11111.415.4
Buffalo11111.315.3
Philadelphia11110.815.2
Dallas10911.215.1
Seattle10711.815.1
Indianapolis11110.815.1
LA Rams10611.915.0
Atlanta10711.415.0
Detroit10711.415.0
Houston10910.815.0
New Orleans10711.314.9
Tampa Bay10710.414.6
NY Giants10710.314.6
Washington1049.814.1

For passing, Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes are a pair of notable quarterbacks. Rodgers will be the first quarterback chosen in most drafts, while Mahomes is a breakout-type guy that many will be selecting as their second quarterback, hoping he can be this year’s Carson Wentz or Jared Goff. But Rodgers and Homes project to face the hardest schedules in the league.

The two easiest pass schedules project to belong to a pair of quarterbacks (Blake Bortles and Alex Smith), followed by a trio of quarterbacks who came in way below expectations last year (Matt Ryan, Dak Prescott, Andrew Luck).

Teams are ordered using 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, PASSING (Weeks 1-17)
TeamYd/GTD/YrPts/G
Jacksonville24825.334.3
Washington24525.634.1
Atlanta24424.133.4
Dallas24424.133.4
Indianapolis24024.633.2
Philadelphia24124.333.1
Houston23924.533.1
Minnesota24423.133.0
Chicago24422.933.0
NY Giants24023.933.0
Buffalo24123.432.8
Carolina24222.832.7
Miami24322.432.7
Tampa Bay23923.532.7
NY Jets24122.832.6
Tennessee23823.532.6
New Orleans24022.832.6
LA Chargers23923.132.5
Seattle23823.332.5
Cincinnati23922.832.4
Denver23922.832.4
New England23922.632.4
Baltimore23922.632.3
San Francisco23822.332.2
Detroit23722.532.2
Cleveland23722.532.1
LA Rams23722.632.1
Pittsburgh23722.332.1
Oakland23422.831.9
Arizona23522.131.8
Green Bay23720.931.5
Kansas City23122.431.5

—Ian Allan

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