The Texans are saying they expect Deshaun Watson will be ready for the start of training camp. He’s one of the most compelling question marks entering the season. He was remarkably good as a rookie, but he’s also hardly played at all and is coming off a serious knee injury.
Ian Rapoport of The NFL Network says the Texans don’t believe Watson or J.J. Watt is a candidate to start the season on the PUP list.
So where do you slot Watson?
There are a lot of healthier quarterbacks who look pretty certain to play 16 games and might be just as good (or better) anyway – Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins and Jimmy Garoppolo, I think, are in that group.
But with there being unprecedented depth at quarterback, that also makes it more appealing to maybe gamble on Watson. If you select him, you can also pick up another quarterback who’ll help you through if he winds up getting hurt again. Alex Smith, Andy Dalton and Derek Carr, for example, might be available really late in drafts, and those guys might be really good.
But when Watson was on the field last year, he was unbelievably good. He started only six games, but in those contests, he put up the best per-game (standard scoring) numbers of any quarterback in this century. Watson not only averaged 3 TD passes per game, he also averaged 42 rushing yards (which is like another 84 passing yards in typical formats).
Among quarterbacks starting at least 6 games, here are the top 40 since 2000. (Wildest name I see on here is Billy Volek from 2004, who played some really impressive ball after Steve McNair got hurt).
TOP 40 PER-GAME QUARTERBACKS OF THIS CENTURY | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | St | Pass | TDP | Run | TDR | Pts |
2017 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 6 | 266 | 3.00 | 42 | .33 | 32.2 |
2013 | Peyton Manning, Den. | 16 | 342 | 3.44 | -2 | .06 | 31.0 |
2010 | Michael Vick, Phil. | 11 | 258 | 1.82 | 52 | .82 | 30.5 |
2011 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 15 | 310 | 3.00 | 17 | .20 | 30.4 |
2011 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 16 | 342 | 2.88 | 5 | .06 | 29.8 |
2007 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 16 | 300 | 3.13 | 6 | .13 | 28.9 |
2015 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 240 | 2.19 | 40 | .63 | 28.5 |
2004 | Daunte Culpepper, Minn. | 16 | 295 | 2.44 | 25 | .13 | 28.2 |
2011 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 16 | 327 | 2.44 | 7 | .19 | 27.9 |
2016 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 16 | 277 | 2.50 | 23 | .25 | 27.9 |
2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 253 | 1.31 | 44 | .88 | 27.8 |
2014 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 16 | 298 | 2.50 | 17 | .19 | 27.7 |
2012 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 16 | 324 | 2.69 | 0 | .06 | 27.3 |
2013 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 16 | 323 | 2.44 | 3 | .19 | 27.3 |
2013 | Nick Foles, Phil. | 10 | 265 | 2.40 | 22 | .30 | 27.2 |
2002 | Donovan McNabb, Phil. | 10 | 229 | 1.70 | 46 | .60 | 26.8 |
2011 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 16 | 315 | 2.56 | 5 | .00 | 26.7 |
2004 | Peyton Manning, Ind. | 16 | 285 | 3.06 | 2 | .00 | 26.7 |
2016 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 16 | 326 | 2.31 | 1 | .13 | 26.4 |
2000 | Daunte Culpepper, Minn. | 16 | 246 | 2.06 | 29 | .44 | 26.4 |
2017 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 249 | 2.13 | 37 | .19 | 26.0 |
2016 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 16 | 309 | 2.38 | 7 | .00 | 25.9 |
2014 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 16 | 274 | 2.38 | 17 | .13 | 25.7 |
2017 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 13 | 254 | 2.54 | 23 | .00 | 25.7 |
2016 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 15 | 283 | 2.07 | 23 | .13 | 25.7 |
2012 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 16 | 268 | 2.44 | 16 | .13 | 25.7 |
2009 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 16 | 277 | 1.88 | 20 | .31 | 25.6 |
2015 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 16 | 277 | 2.19 | 19 | .13 | 25.4 |
2015 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 16 | 298 | 2.25 | 3 | .19 | 25.4 |
2000 | Jeff Garcia, S.F. | 16 | 267 | 1.94 | 26 | .25 | 25.3 |
2012 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 16 | 302 | 2.13 | 2 | .25 | 25.3 |
2015 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 15 | 325 | 2.13 | 1 | .07 | 25.3 |
2015 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 7 | 269 | 2.14 | 28 | .00 | 25.1 |
2015 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | 16 | 252 | 2.13 | 35 | .06 | 24.9 |
2016 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 12 | 296 | 2.33 | 5 | .00 | 24.8 |
2004 | Billy Volek, Tenn. | 8 | 287 | 2.25 | 6 | .13 | 24.7 |
2009 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 15 | 293 | 2.27 | 2 | .13 | 24.7 |
2014 | Peyton Manning, Den. | 16 | 295 | 2.44 | -2 | .00 | 24.6 |
2001 | Kurt Warner, St.L. | 16 | 302 | 2.25 | 4 | .00 | 24.6 |
2014 | Drew Brees, N.O. | 16 | 310 | 2.06 | 4 | .06 | 24.5 |
—Ian Allan