D.J. Moore was the first wide receiver drafted, Carolina's first-round pick in April. Initial reports from practices are favorable, and certainly the opportunity for him to start right away is there. But anyone counting on him in early fantasy drafts should remember it's rare that such rookies make a big impact.

Rare, but not impossible. Looking at rookie wideouts from this century, there have been 31 that have finished the season as top-30 fantasy wideouts (1 point for every 10 yards and 6 for touchdowns), so nearly 2 per season. Stretch it out to top 50, and there have been 55 (about 3 per season). Not great odds, but given draft pedigree and opportunity, Moore looks like the favorite to be one of this year's representatives.

2003Anquan Boldin, Ariz.10113778189.74
2014Odell Beckham Jr., NYG91130512206.06
2016Michael Thomas, N.O.9211379167.79
2016Tyreek Hill, K.C.6159312158.011
2014Mike Evans, T.B.68105112177.111
2010Mike Williams, T.B.6596411162.412
2017JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt.589178139.714
2011A.J. Green, Cin.6510577153.014
2006Marques Colston, N.O.7010388151.814
2004Michael Clayton, T.B.8011937164.314
2014Kelvin Benjamin, Car.7310089154.816
2013Keenan Allen, S.D.7110468152.617
2011Julio Jones, Atl.549598149.517
2008Eddie Royal, Den.919805140.919
2009Percy Harvin, Minn.607908140.520
2015Amari Cooper, Oak.7210706142.723
2012T.Y. Hilton, Ind.508618137.023
2011Torrey Smith, Balt.508417130.024
2004Lee Evans, Buff.488439146.824
2003Andre Johnson, Hou.669764120.624
2014Jordan Matthews, Phil.678728135.225
2007Dwayne Bowe, K.C.709955129.525
2017Cooper Kupp, LAR628695116.926
2014Sammy Watkins, Buff.659826135.026
2008DeSean Jackson, Phil.629124124.826
2009Mike Wallace, Pitt.397566116.427
2000Peter Warrick, Cin.515927116.027
2009Hakeem Nicks, NYG477906115.828
2004Roy Williams, Det.548178129.829
2004Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz.587808127.430
2001Chris Chambers, Mia.488837129.230
2013Cordarrelle Patterson, Minn.454699116.733
2000Darrell Jackson, Sea.537136107.233
2002Antonio Bryant, Dall.447336113.334
2016Sterling Shepard, NYG656838119.435
2015Tyler Lockett, Sea.516648116.435
2007Calvin Johnson, Det.487565110.836
2012Josh Gordon, Clev.508055110.538
2013Terrance Williams, Dall.447365106.039
2001Rod Gardner, Wash.46741499.739
2011Doug Baldwin, Sea.517884102.640
2009Jeremy Maclin, Phil.55762499.540
2002Donte Stallworth, N.O.425948107.640
2017Keelan Cole, Jac.42748392.842
2014Jarvis Landry, Mia.847585105.442
2010Dez Bryant, Dall.455618104.142
2014Martavis Bryant, Pitt.265498104.143
2014Allen Hurns, Jac.516776103.744
2015Stefon Diggs, Minn.52720497.346
2013Marlon Brown, Balt.49524796.246
2013Kenny Stills, N.O.32641595.148
2005Chris Henry, Cin.31515583.548
2014John Brown, Ariz.48696599.049
2013Tavon Austin, St.L.40418692.950
2009Kenny Britt, Tenn.42701388.150

Last year there were exactly two, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Cooper Kupp, in the top 30, with a third, Keelan Cole, sneaking into the top 50. Given the Steelers' history of bringing wide receivers along slowly, the Rams' previous ineptitude passing the ball, and Cole's undrafted status, none were expected. So maybe Moore will surprise? Still, not a stellar hit rate for rookies.

--Andy Richardson