We wrote about this yesterday, and now Adam Schefter is reporting it: Jameis Winston will be suspended to start the 2018 season, possibly for as many as three games. It hasn't yet been handed down officially, and there will be an appeals process, but if you're drafting tonight (yes, some actually are) you need to be prepared for Winston to miss the first three games.
This is a concern for key components of the Bucs offense, particularly Mike Evans. But it need not necessarily be a killer. The Bucs will use Ryan Fitzpatrick in those games, and while Fitzpatrick tends to turn it over too often and isn't as talented as Winston, he's not an ineffective game manager either.
A year ago, Fitzpatrick played most or all of four games; three starts and one where he took over early. His numbers in those games were credible (and in the worst of them, against the Jets, he didn't even have Evans, who was suspended).
| FITZPATRICK WITH BUCS, 2017 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opp | Result | Comp | Att | Yds | TD |
| at Ariz. | L, 33-38 | 22 | 32 | 290 | 3 |
| vs. NYJ | W, 15-10 | 17 | 34 | 187 | 1 |
| at Mia. | W, 30-20 | 22 | 37 | 275 | 2 |
| at Atl. | L, 20-34 | 27 | 44 | 283 | 0 |
| Avg | 22 | 37 | 259 | 1.5 | |
Evans, for that matter, posted very similar numbers in his three games with Fitzpatrick as he did in his 12 games with Winston.
| EVANS WITH WINSTON | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opp | Result | No | Yds | TD |
| Chic. | W 29-7 | 7 | 93 | 1 |
| at Minn. | L 17-34 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| NYG | W 25-23 | 5 | 67 | 1 |
| N.E. | L 14-19 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| at Buff. | L 27-30 | 7 | 88 | 1 |
| Car. | L 3-17 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| at N.O. | L 10-30 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| at G.B. | L 20-26 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Det. | L 21-24 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Atl. | L 21-24 | 5 | 79 | 1 |
| at Car. | L 19-22 | 6 | 107 | 0 |
| N.O. | W 31-24 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Avg | 5 | 61 | 0.33 | |
| EVANS WITH FITZPATRICK | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opp | Result | No | Yds | TD |
| at Ariz. | L 33-38 | 3 | 95 | 1 |
| at Mia. | W 30-20 | 5 | 92 | 0 |
| at Atl. | L 20-34 | 6 | 78 | 0 |
| Avg | 5 | 88 | 0.33 | |
Would be nice if Winston's suspension is shorter rather than longer, so maybe you bump Evans down a little. But seems more likely he'll wind up being a value, scaring a lot of fantasy teams away more than they should be. No reason to think Evans is useless in his starter's absence.
--Andy Richardson