Factoid

June 29, 2018

Jeremy Hill

Sleeper appeal in possible goal-line back?

Jeremy Hill is sitting out there in my dynasty league, and I'm mildly intrigued. He's been pretty awful the last few years, averaging 3.1 to 3.8 yards per attempt three years in a row. But in two of those seasons he scored 9 and 11 TDs, and he could find himself in position to have another such season with New England.

As we've noted in the past, while the Patriots are known for Tom Brady and the passing game, they've long been one of the league's more productive running teams. Especially in terms of touchdowns. Over the past decade, they've scored 183 rushing touchdowns. That's 7 TDs more than 2nd-place Carolina, and 22 more than every other team. Cincinnati, with Hill the main runner for four of those seasons, has been a bottom-1o team in that regard, with 118; under 12 per year.

TEAM RUSHING TOUCHDOWNS, 2008-2017
Team	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	Total
New England	21	19	19	18	25	19	13	14	19	16	183
Carolina	30	18	7	26	21	14	10	19	16	15	176
Minnesota	15	19	16	18	16	23	12	18	9	15	161
New Orleans	20	21	9	16	10	10	16	16	17	23	158
Philadelphia	15	14	18	20	10	19	16	15	16	9	152
Atlanta	23	15	14	14	12	11	11	13	20	12	145
Baltimore	20	22	11	15	17	7	16	8	10	14	140
Tennessee	24	19	13	8	10	16	6	10	16	18	140
NY Jets	20	21	14	14	12	12	11	11	10	13	138
Buffalo	16	6	6	12	12	15	7	19	29	12	134
Houston	16	13	20	18	19	7	12	7	8	8	128
San Francisco	10	12	10	14	17	18	10	7	15	15	128
Dallas	12	14	10	5	8	12	16	8	24	18	127
Green Bay	11	20	11	12	9	17	14	8	11	13	126
NY Giants	19	14	17	17	18	11	13	5	6	6	126
Kansas City	9	8	13	5	9	17	18	19	15	12	125
Washington	12	8	9	8	22	14	15	9	17	10	124
Denver	15	9	13	11	12	16	15	13	11	8	123
Miami	18	22	8	11	15	8	12	11	14	4	123
Pittsburgh	16	10	15	13	8	9	10	16	13	12	122
Seattle	10	7	13	15	16	14	20	10	13	4	122
Arizona	14	16	9	12	10	12	6	16	20	6	121
Cincinnati	6	9	8	10	11	14	19	18	17	6	118
Indianapolis	13	16	13	8	11	15	9	6	13	11	115
Oakland	9	7	19	16	4	16	4	7	17	13	112
Jacksonville	17	19	14	9	5	7	9	5	8	18	111
Chicago	15	6	10	10	11	13	8	13	10	13	109
Detroit	10	9	11	9	17	15	11	7	9	10	108
LA Chargers	13	17	18	16	4	9	6	4	10	10	107
LA Rams	8	4	9	7	5	10	11	16	9	17	96
Cleveland	6	10	13	4	12	4	17	5	13	11	95
Tampa Bay	13	5	9	9	13	6	7	12	8	8	90

The problem with New England is they have plenty of other running backs. Rex Burkhead is the favorite to be the main runner, they drafted Sony Michel in the first round, plus the team still has passing downs back James White and (for now) Mike Gillislee. Gillislee, of course, was supposed to be the beneficiary of all those rushing touchdown opportunities a year ago. He flopped in that role, and ended up being a wasted fantasy pick.

But Hill and his 29 career rushing touchdowns (all in his first three seasons; he had none last year, with Joe Mixon getting the most chances) is a strong candidate for that work, and he's got more of a track record than Gillislee. Burkhead should be the primary runner, White the passing-downs back, and maybe they bring Michel along quickly. But there's an opportunity for Hill to be the main back near the goal line, maybe an 8-10 TD player again.

--Andy Richardson

Jeremy Hill New England Patriots

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