The debate in the latest Mailbag over Deshaun Watson highlights the significance of expected games played in the rankings. If you believe a certain player will play more games, or aren't worried about filling his spot for few games if he misses time, by all means rank him higher. That's a situation that also applies to Jordan Reed.
Reed has missed 14 of a possible 32 games the last two seasons; nearly all of 2017. This story indicates Washington might look to get out of Reed's contract after this season, especially likely if Reed again proves unable to stay healthy.
When he was healthy for most of 2016, though (12 games), Reed was a difference maker. And the quarterback switch to Alex Smith shouldn't hurt.
Back in 2016, Reed accounted for about a quarter of Washington's touchdown receptions; only six tight ends accounted for more that year. Meanwhile, Alex Smith was throwing to Travis Kelce in Kansas City. Kelce accounted for the highest percentage of team receptions and yards of any tight end in the league.
| TIGHT ENDS, PERCENT OF TEAM, 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | %Rec | %Yds | %TD |
| Kyle Rudolph, Minn. | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Tyler Eifert, Cin. | 8% | 9% | 28% |
| Cameron Brate, T.B. | 16% | 16% | 28% |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz, Hou. | 16% | 16% | 27% |
| Jimmy Graham, Sea. | 18% | 21% | 26% |
| Zach Ertz, Phil. | 21% | 21% | 25% |
| Jordan Reed, Wash. | 16% | 14% | 24% |
| Hunter Henry, S.D. | 10% | 11% | 24% |
| Delanie Walker, Tenn. | 21% | 22% | 24% |
| Charles Clay, Buff. | 20% | 17% | 24% |
| Martellus Bennett, N.E. | 15% | 16% | 22% |
| Antonio Gates, S.D. | 15% | 12% | 21% |
| Travis Kelce, K.C. | 23% | 29% | 21% |
| Zach Miller, Chi. | 14% | 12% | 21% |
| Vance McDonald, S.F. | 8% | 12% | 19% |
| Dwayne Allen, Ind. | 9% | 9% | 19% |
| Julius Thomas, Jac. | 8% | 7% | 17% |
| Jack Doyle, Ind. | 16% | 13% | 16% |
| Dion Sims, Mia. | 8% | 7% | 15% |
| Greg Olsen, Car. | 26% | 27% | 14% |
| Lance Kendricks, L.A. | 16% | 15% | 14% |
| Garrett Celek, S.F. | 10% | 11% | 14% |
| Gary Barnidge, Clev. | 16% | 17% | 13% |
| Ryan Griffin, Hou. | 14% | 13% | 13% |
| Seth Devalve, Clev. | 3% | 3% | 13% |
| Jason Witten, Dall. | 21% | 18% | 12% |
| Clive Walford, Oak. | 9% | 9% | 10% |
| Dennis Pitta, Balt. | 20% | 17% | 10% |
| Darren Waller, Balt. | 2% | 2% | 10% |
Table shows all tight ends accounting for at least 10 percent of their team's touchdown receptions. Kelce's numbers were similar in 2017: 3rd-highest percentage of receptions and 2nd-highest percentage of yards among tight ends. Washington would only show up favorably if you rolled Reed and Vernon Davis into one player.
But if Reed can stay healthy and start a dozen or more games, he should be one of the league's best tight ends. How much risk you're willing to take on is the main question.
--Andy Richardson