Training camps are about to open, so an overall look at the lay of the land is in order. As part of our process, we look not only at individual players but also keep an eye on the overall projected totals for each offense. We start with a thorough, exacting look at each team during the spring, then make adjustments along the way, accounting for developments.
In my eyes, there isn’t a dominating, crushing offense out there right now. I don’t see a team that’s way better than the rest. Typically there will be some offense that gets hot and puts up about 55 touchdowns, but I don’t see one of those teams jumping out right now.
On my board, I’ve got three offenses projecting to average about 3 TDs per game – Packers, Saints and Patriots. I’ve got the Rams just behind that group, and two other teams scoring more than 40 (the two Pennsylvania teams).
Instead (at least for now) I’ve got half of the league’s offenses projecting to score 36-38 touchdowns. That’s a big middle class.
I see one truly awful offense – Buffalo – and I’ve got four others averaging under 2 TDs per game (Cardinals, Jets, Dolphins, Bears).
No doubt these numbers will change. Injuries will occur, and some players and units will probably really shine in the practice games. But for now, this is what I’ve got …
| PROJECTED OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pass | Run | Total |
| Green Bay | 36.2 | 12.0 | 48.2 |
| New England | 30.4 | 17.1 | 47.5 |
| New Orleans | 28.6 | 17.8 | 46.4 |
| LA Rams | 29.4 | 16.5 | 45.9 |
| Pittsburgh | 30.9 | 12.5 | 43.4 |
| Philadelphia | 29.0 | 12.5 | 41.4 |
| LA Chargers | 29.0 | 10.6 | 39.5 |
| Minnesota | 25.6 | 12.8 | 38.4 |
| Atlanta | 25.6 | 12.6 | 38.2 |
| Kansas City | 25.0 | 12.8 | 37.8 |
| Carolina | 22.4 | 15.0 | 37.4 |
| Dallas | 20.2 | 17.0 | 37.1 |
| Jacksonville | 20.5 | 16.6 | 37.1 |
| Detroit | 26.4 | 10.6 | 37.0 |
| Washington | 24.0 | 13.0 | 37.0 |
| Oakland | 26.1 | 10.7 | 36.8 |
| San Francisco | 23.5 | 13.3 | 36.8 |
| Tennessee | 23.8 | 13.0 | 36.8 |
| Seattle | 27.2 | 9.4 | 36.6 |
| NY Giants | 24.0 | 12.5 | 36.5 |
| Houston | 26.4 | 9.9 | 36.3 |
| Indianapolis | 25.4 | 10.9 | 36.3 |
| Tampa Bay | 28.0 | 8.3 | 36.3 |
| Cincinnati | 25.3 | 10.4 | 35.7 |
| Baltimore | 21.6 | 13.8 | 35.4 |
| Cleveland | 21.6 | 11.7 | 33.3 |
| Denver | 21.6 | 10.6 | 32.2 |
| Chicago | 18.9 | 13.0 | 31.8 |
| Miami | 23.2 | 8.3 | 31.5 |
| NY Jets | 17.9 | 11.7 | 29.6 |
| Arizona | 19.8 | 9.3 | 29.1 |
| Buffalo | 15.7 | 9.9 | 25.6 |
As usual on this kind of thing, let me know where you think I’m off base. Of the 32 projections, which one do you think is simply way off?
—Ian Allan