For fantasy purposes, I consider Jay Gruden to be the more appealing of the Gruden brothers. I like the way he attacks defenses, and there are no concerns about him being away from the sideline for years.
Including his work as a coordinator in Cincinnati, Gruden’s last six offenses have averaged almost 40 touchdowns. Two thirds of those teams have ranked about 10th in scoring. That seems like a reasonable estimate.
JAY GRUDEN OFFENSES | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Win | Points | Rk | TD |
2011 | Cincinnati | 9-7 | 21.5 | 18 | 31 |
2012 | Cincinnati | 10-6 | 24.4 | 12 | 39 |
2013 | Cincinnati | 11-5 | 26.9 | 7 | 47 |
2014 | Washington | 4-12 | 18.8 | 26 | 33 |
2015 | Washington | 9-7 | 24.3 | 10 | 39 |
2016 | Washington | 8-7-1 | 24.8 | 12 | 42 |
2017 | Washington | 7-9 | 21.4 | 16 | 37 |
Most impressively, Gruden isn’t shy about getting the ball in the air. His last five teams have all averaged at least 253 passing yards per game. His last six teams have all ranked higher in passing than rushing.
JAY GRUDEN / PASSING | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Pct | Yds | TD | Int | F Pts | Rk |
2011 | Cincinnati | 58% | 3,507 | 21 | 14 | 476.7 | 21 |
2012 | Cincinnati | 62% | 3,807 | 28 | 16 | 548.7 | 13 |
2013 | Cincinnati | 62% | 4,321 | 33 | 20 | 630.1 | 7 |
2014 | Washington | 67% | 4,047 | 18 | 18 | 512.7 | 16 |
2015 | Washington | 70% | 4,294 | 30 | 11 | 609.4 | 12 |
2016 | Washington | 67% | 4,948 | 25 | 12 | 644.8 | 4 |
2017 | Washington | 64% | 4,093 | 27 | 13 | 571.3 | 10 |
Gruden has been particularly good with quarterbacks. Never more so than in 2013, when Andy Dalton averaged 268 passing yards and threw 33 touchdowns. In his first year in Washington, Gruden went with a combo platter of RG3, Kirk Cousins and Colt McCoy at quarterback (with all of them starting 4-7 games). Setting that season aside, Gruden’s last five quarterbacks have ranked 14th, 4th, 10th, 6th and 7th in per-game production. That’s standard scoring (including rushing and passing) and comparing players against other quarterbacks starting at least half of the time.
In part because of Gruden’s play calling an offensive design, he’s perhaps made Dalton and Cousins look better than they actually are. So count me among the group that believes Alex Smith will be better than expected this season. I think he might put up top-10 numbers.
(On this chart, I’m coming TD passes and TD runs into one category.)
JAY GRUDEN / QUARTERBACKS (per game) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | St | Pass | Run | TD | Pts | Rk |
2011 | Andy Dalton, Cin. | 16 | 212 | 10 | 1.31 | 16.9 | 21 |
2012 | Andy Dalton, Cin. | 16 | 229 | 8 | 1.94 | 20.5 | 14 |
2013 | Andy Dalton, Cin. | 16 | 268 | 11 | 2.19 | 23.6 | 4 |
2014 | Robert Griffin III, Wash. | 7 | 204 | 19 | .57 | 14.6 | -- |
2014 | Kirk Cousins, Wash. | 5 | 292 | 4 | 1.60 | 21.4 | -- |
2014 | Colt McCoy, Wash. | 4 | 232 | 16 | 1.00 | 17.7 | -- |
2015 | Kirk Cousins, Wash. | 16 | 260 | 3 | 2.13 | 22.7 | 10 |
2016 | Kirk Cousins, Wash. | 16 | 307 | 6 | 1.81 | 23.7 | 6 |
2017 | Kirk Cousins, Wash. | 16 | 256 | 11 | 1.94 | 22.2 | 7 |
Gruden’s offenses haven’t been as impressive running the ball. They tend to rely more on the pass. He’s run seven NFL offenses, and none of them have ranked in the top 10 in rushing. More commonly, they tend to be below average.
Gruden’s last six offenses have all ranked higher in passing than rushing.
JAY GRUDEN / RUSHING | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Team | Att | Yards | TD | F Pts | Rk |
2011 | Cincinnati | 455 | 1,778 | 10 | 237.8 | 21 |
2012 | Cincinnati | 430 | 1,745 | 11 | 240.5 | 19 |
2013 | Cincinnati | 481 | 1,755 | 14 | 259.5 | 18 |
2014 | Washington | 401 | 1,691 | 15 | 259.1 | 16 |
2015 | Washington | 429 | 1,566 | 9 | 210.6 | 22 |
2016 | Washington | 379 | 1,696 | 17 | 271.6 | 13 |
2017 | Washington | 401 | 1,448 | 10 | 204.8 | 25 |
With lesser running games and a tendency to rotate backs, Gruden hasn’t tended to have great players at the position. In seven years, he’s never had a top-10 running back. Alfred Morris (who played his best ball pre-Gruden) was the No. 12 back in 2014. Each of Gruden’s three Cincinnati teams had a back ranking between 16th and 19th. But no other back for Gruden has even banked in the top 30. (That’s standard scoring.)
So while Derrius Guice looked really nifty at times for Louisiana State, the historical trends don’t make it look particularly likely he’ll be a top-10 back.
JAY GRUDEN, TOP-80 RUNNING BACKS | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Rec | Run | Total | TD | Fan | Rk |
2014 | Alfred Morris, Wash. | 155 | 1,074 | 1,229 | 8 | 170.9 | 12 |
2013 | Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 514 | 695 | 1,209 | 8 | 168.9 | 16 |
2011 | Cedric Benson, Cin. | 82 | 1,067 | 1,149 | 6 | 150.9 | 19 |
2012 | BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cin. | 104 | 1,094 | 1,198 | 6 | 155.8 | 19 |
2016 | Robert Kelley, Wash. | 82 | 704 | 786 | 7 | 120.6 | 31 |
2017 | Chris Thompson, Wash. | 510 | 294 | 804 | 6 | 116.4 | 36 |
2013 | BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cin. | 22 | 756 | 778 | 7 | 119.8 | 36 |
2015 | Alfred Morris, Wash. | 55 | 751 | 806 | 1 | 86.6 | 37 |
2016 | Chris Thompson, Wash. | 349 | 356 | 705 | 5 | 100.5 | 37 |
2017 | Samaje Perine, Wash. | 182 | 603 | 785 | 2 | 90.5 | 37 |
2014 | Roy Helu, Wash. | 477 | 216 | 693 | 3 | 87.3 | 39 |
2015 | Matt Jones, Wash. | 304 | 490 | 794 | 4 | 103.4 | 39 |
2016 | Matt Jones, Wash. | 73 | 460 | 533 | 3 | 71.3 | 51 |
2015 | Chris Thompson, Wash. | 240 | 216 | 456 | 2 | 57.6 | 57 |
2011 | Bernard Scott, Cin. | 38 | 380 | 418 | 3 | 59.8 | 61 |
2012 | Cedric Benson, Cin. | 97 | 248 | 345 | 1 | 40.5 | 66 |
2012 | Cedric Peerman, Cin. | 85 | 258 | 343 | 1 | 40.3 | 67 |
2011 | Brian Leonard, Cin. | 210 | 85 | 295 | 0 | 29.5 | 76 |
While we’ve got the numbers out, we may as well take a look at the wide receivers as well. In Gruden’s three years in Cincinnati, A.J. Green ranked 4th, 4th and 14th in standard scoring at the position. Three other Gruden receivers have ranked between 17th and 24th, but nobody else has made the top 30.
JAY GRUDEN TOP-80 WIDE RECEIVERS | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | No | Rec | Run | TD | Pts | Rk |
2012 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 97 | 1,350 | 38 | 11 | 204.8 | 4 |
2013 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 98 | 1,426 | 0 | 11 | 208.6 | 4 |
2011 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 65 | 1,057 | 53 | 7 | 153.0 | 14 |
2014 | DeSean Jackson, Wash. | 56 | 1,169 | 7 | 6 | 153.6 | 17 |
2013 | Marvin Jones, Cin. | 51 | 712 | 65 | 10 | 137.7 | 22 |
2016 | Jamison Crowder, Wash. | 67 | 847 | -2 | 8 | 132.5 | 24 |
2016 | DeSean Jackson, Wash. | 56 | 1,005 | 0 | 4 | 124.5 | 31 |
2016 | Pierre Garcon, Wash. | 79 | 1,041 | 0 | 3 | 122.1 | 32 |
2015 | Pierre Garcon, Wash. | 72 | 777 | 0 | 6 | 113.7 | 37 |
2017 | Jamison Crowder, Wash. | 66 | 789 | 34 | 3 | 100.3 | 38 |
2011 | Jerome Simpson, Cin. | 50 | 725 | 0 | 4 | 96.5 | 47 |
2017 | Josh Doctson, Wash. | 35 | 502 | -14 | 6 | 84.8 | 49 |
2017 | Ryan Grant, Wash. | 45 | 573 | 0 | 4 | 81.3 | 52 |
2014 | Pierre Garcon, Wash. | 68 | 752 | 0 | 3 | 93.2 | 54 |
2015 | DeSean Jackson, Wash. | 30 | 528 | 0 | 4 | 76.8 | 58 |
2015 | Jamison Crowder, Wash. | 59 | 604 | 2 | 2 | 76.6 | 60 |
2012 | Andrew Hawkins, Cin. | 51 | 533 | 30 | 4 | 80.3 | 61 |
2013 | Mohamed Sanu, Cin. | 47 | 455 | 16 | 2 | 59.1 | 77 |
In five of Gruden’s seven seasons, his offenses have had a top-15 tight end. He’s had some talent to work with at that position – Jordan Reed and Jermaine Gresham.
JAY GRUDEN TOP-60 TIGHT ENDS | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | No | Yards | Avg | TD | Pts | Rnk |
2015 | Jordan Reed, Wash. | 87 | 952 | 10.9 | 11 | 161.2 | 2 |
2016 | Jordan Reed, Wash. | 66 | 686 | 10.4 | 6 | 104.6 | 9 |
2017 | Vernon Davis, Wash. | 43 | 648 | 15.1 | 3 | 82.8 | 11 |
2012 | Jermaine Gresham, Cin. | 64 | 737 | 11.5 | 5 | 103.7 | 11 |
2011 | Jermaine Gresham, Cin. | 56 | 596 | 10.6 | 6 | 95.6 | 13 |
2013 | Jermaine Gresham, Cin. | 46 | 458 | 10.0 | 4 | 69.8 | 21 |
2014 | Niles Paul, Wash. | 39 | 507 | 13.0 | 1 | 56.7 | 22 |
2016 | Vernon Davis, Wash. | 44 | 583 | 13.3 | 2 | 70.3 | 23 |
2014 | Jordan Reed, Wash. | 50 | 465 | 9.3 | 0 | 46.5 | 29 |
2013 | Tyler Eifert, Cin. | 39 | 445 | 11.4 | 2 | 56.5 | 29 |
2017 | Jordan Reed, Wash. | 27 | 211 | 7.8 | 2 | 33.1 | 43 |
2015 | Derek Carrier, Wash. | 17 | 141 | 8.3 | 1 | 20.1 | 54 |
2012 | Orson Charles, Cin. | 8 | 101 | 12.6 | 0 | 10.1 | 60 |
—Ian Allan