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Jay Gruden profile

Coach likes to put the ball in the air

For fantasy purposes, I consider Jay Gruden to be the more appealing of the Gruden brothers. I like the way he attacks defenses, and there are no concerns about him being away from the sideline for years.

Including his work as a coordinator in Cincinnati, Gruden’s last six offenses have averaged almost 40 touchdowns. Two thirds of those teams have ranked about 10th in scoring. That seems like a reasonable estimate.

JAY GRUDEN OFFENSES
YearTeamWinPointsRkTD
2011Cincinnati9-721.51831
2012Cincinnati10-624.41239
2013Cincinnati11-526.9747
2014Washington4-1218.82633
2015Washington9-724.31039
2016Washington8-7-124.81242
2017Washington7-921.41637

Most impressively, Gruden isn’t shy about getting the ball in the air. His last five teams have all averaged at least 253 passing yards per game. His last six teams have all ranked higher in passing than rushing.

JAY GRUDEN / PASSING
YearTeamPctYdsTDIntF PtsRk
2011Cincinnati58%3,5072114476.721
2012Cincinnati62%3,8072816548.713
2013Cincinnati62%4,3213320630.17
2014Washington67%4,0471818512.716
2015Washington70%4,2943011609.412
2016Washington67%4,9482512644.84
2017Washington64%4,0932713571.310

Gruden has been particularly good with quarterbacks. Never more so than in 2013, when Andy Dalton averaged 268 passing yards and threw 33 touchdowns. In his first year in Washington, Gruden went with a combo platter of RG3, Kirk Cousins and Colt McCoy at quarterback (with all of them starting 4-7 games). Setting that season aside, Gruden’s last five quarterbacks have ranked 14th, 4th, 10th, 6th and 7th in per-game production. That’s standard scoring (including rushing and passing) and comparing players against other quarterbacks starting at least half of the time.

In part because of Gruden’s play calling an offensive design, he’s perhaps made Dalton and Cousins look better than they actually are. So count me among the group that believes Alex Smith will be better than expected this season. I think he might put up top-10 numbers.

(On this chart, I’m coming TD passes and TD runs into one category.)

JAY GRUDEN / QUARTERBACKS (per game)
YearPlayerStPassRunTDPtsRk
2011Andy Dalton, Cin.16212101.3116.921
2012Andy Dalton, Cin.1622981.9420.514
2013Andy Dalton, Cin.16268112.1923.64
2014Robert Griffin III, Wash.720419.5714.6--
2014Kirk Cousins, Wash.529241.6021.4--
2014Colt McCoy, Wash.4232161.0017.7--
2015Kirk Cousins, Wash.1626032.1322.710
2016Kirk Cousins, Wash.1630761.8123.76
2017Kirk Cousins, Wash.16256111.9422.27

Gruden’s offenses haven’t been as impressive running the ball. They tend to rely more on the pass. He’s run seven NFL offenses, and none of them have ranked in the top 10 in rushing. More commonly, they tend to be below average.

Gruden’s last six offenses have all ranked higher in passing than rushing.

JAY GRUDEN / RUSHING
YearTeamAttYardsTDF PtsRk
2011Cincinnati4551,77810237.821
2012Cincinnati4301,74511240.519
2013Cincinnati4811,75514259.518
2014Washington4011,69115259.116
2015Washington4291,5669210.622
2016Washington3791,69617271.613
2017Washington4011,44810204.825

With lesser running games and a tendency to rotate backs, Gruden hasn’t tended to have great players at the position. In seven years, he’s never had a top-10 running back. Alfred Morris (who played his best ball pre-Gruden) was the No. 12 back in 2014. Each of Gruden’s three Cincinnati teams had a back ranking between 16th and 19th. But no other back for Gruden has even banked in the top 30. (That’s standard scoring.)

So while Derrius Guice looked really nifty at times for Louisiana State, the historical trends don’t make it look particularly likely he’ll be a top-10 back.

JAY GRUDEN, TOP-80 RUNNING BACKS
YearPlayerRecRunTotal TDFanRk
2014Alfred Morris, Wash.1551,0741,2298170.912
2013Giovani Bernard, Cin.5146951,2098168.916
2011Cedric Benson, Cin.821,0671,1496150.919
2012BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cin.1041,0941,1986155.819
2016Robert Kelley, Wash.827047867120.631
2017Chris Thompson, Wash.5102948046116.436
2013BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cin.227567787119.836
2015Alfred Morris, Wash.55751806186.637
2016Chris Thompson, Wash.3493567055100.537
2017Samaje Perine, Wash.182603785290.537
2014Roy Helu, Wash.477216693387.339
2015Matt Jones, Wash.3044907944103.439
2016Matt Jones, Wash.73460533371.351
2015Chris Thompson, Wash.240216456257.657
2011Bernard Scott, Cin.38380418359.861
2012Cedric Benson, Cin.97248345140.566
2012Cedric Peerman, Cin.85258343140.367
2011Brian Leonard, Cin.21085295029.576

While we’ve got the numbers out, we may as well take a look at the wide receivers as well. In Gruden’s three years in Cincinnati, A.J. Green ranked 4th, 4th and 14th in standard scoring at the position. Three other Gruden receivers have ranked between 17th and 24th, but nobody else has made the top 30.

JAY GRUDEN TOP-80 WIDE RECEIVERS
YearPlayerNoRecRunTDPtsRk
2012A.J. Green, Cin.971,3503811204.84
2013A.J. Green, Cin.981,426011208.64
2011A.J. Green, Cin.651,057537153.014
2014DeSean Jackson, Wash.561,16976153.617
2013Marvin Jones, Cin.517126510137.722
2016Jamison Crowder, Wash.67847-28132.524
2016DeSean Jackson, Wash.561,00504124.531
2016Pierre Garcon, Wash.791,04103122.132
2015Pierre Garcon, Wash.7277706113.737
2017Jamison Crowder, Wash.66789343100.338
2011Jerome Simpson, Cin.507250496.547
2017Josh Doctson, Wash.35502-14684.849
2017Ryan Grant, Wash.455730481.352
2014Pierre Garcon, Wash.687520393.254
2015DeSean Jackson, Wash.305280476.858
2015Jamison Crowder, Wash.596042276.660
2012Andrew Hawkins, Cin.5153330480.361
2013Mohamed Sanu, Cin.4745516259.177

In five of Gruden’s seven seasons, his offenses have had a top-15 tight end. He’s had some talent to work with at that position – Jordan Reed and Jermaine Gresham.

JAY GRUDEN TOP-60 TIGHT ENDS
YearPlayerNoYardsAvgTDPtsRnk
2015Jordan Reed, Wash.8795210.911161.22
2016Jordan Reed, Wash.6668610.46104.69
2017Vernon Davis, Wash.4364815.1382.811
2012Jermaine Gresham, Cin.6473711.55103.711
2011Jermaine Gresham, Cin.5659610.6695.613
2013Jermaine Gresham, Cin.4645810.0469.821
2014Niles Paul, Wash.3950713.0156.722
2016Vernon Davis, Wash.4458313.3270.323
2014Jordan Reed, Wash.504659.3046.529
2013Tyler Eifert, Cin.3944511.4256.529
2017Jordan Reed, Wash.272117.8233.143
2015Derek Carrier, Wash.171418.3120.154
2012Orson Charles, Cin.810112.6010.160

—Ian Allan

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