Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. Is D.J. Moore a breakout candidate to target in the later rounds? How valuable are kickers? Using strength of schedule to select a defense. And pondering whether Kansas City is about ready to fall apart.
Question 1
I was in a draft last Thursday and a gentleman who is a well-known high stakes player (over 100 teams) happened to be in the league. He made one pick that leaped off of the board at me. It was the 10th round when he took as the 43rd WR D.J. Moore, a stunning 50 spots higher than you currently have him. I'd be curious of any additional thoughts besides what you wrote in the magazine. In other words please convince me I don't need to move him up the my board a ways! I've been around long enough to know your general thoughts about first-year WRs but feel free to reiterate if necessary.
Jay Harding (Oregon City, OR)
The well-known high stakes player is obviously higher on Carolina’s passing game than I am. I’ve got them finishing 24th in team production (standard scoring). And I’ve got Moore as the 4th-best receiving option on that team. I believe Devin Funchess, Greg Olsen and Christian McCaffrey will be more involved in the passing game. I may be proven wrong. Maybe Olsen isn’t ready to get back to being what he was in 2016. Maybe they sour on McCaffrey some. Funchess is painfully slow, but he was effective in the second half of last year and he’s got some experience in the pros, which I think helps. Let’s see what Moore looks like in the preseason games, but for now I don’t think he’s anything more than a late-round flyer. He’s a first-round pick, but he wasn’t taken until 24th pick. Of the last 29 wide receivers chosen in the first round, but outside the top 20, the track record isn’t very good. Only three caught 50-plus passes, only four reached 800 yards, and five scored more than 5 TDs. Eight of the 29 (about a quarter) hit at least one of those triggers, and I’ve got those guys tagged with black dots.
| FIRST-ROUND RECEIVERS OUTSIDE TOP 20 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | No | Yards | Avg | TD |
| 2000 | 21 | Sylvester Morris, K.C. | 48 | 678 | 14.1 | 3 |
| 2000 | 29 | R. Jay Soward, Jac. | 14 | 154 | 11.0 | 1 |
| 2001 | 25 | Freddie Mitchell, Phil. | 21 | 283 | 13.5 | 1 |
| 2001 | 30 | Reggie Wayne, Ind. | 27 | 345 | 12.8 | 0 |
| 2004 | 29 | Michael Jenkins, Atl. | 7 | 119 | 17.0 | 0 |
| 2004 | 31 | Rashaun Woods, S.F. | 7 | 160 | 22.9 | 1 |
| 2005 | 21 | Matt Jones, Jac. | 36 | 432 | 12.0 | 5 |
| 2005 | 22 | Mark Clayton, Balt. | 44 | 471 | 10.7 | 3 |
| 2005 | 27 | Roddy White, Atl. | 29 | 446 | 15.4 | 3 |
| 2006 | 25 | • Santonio Holmes, Pitt. | 49 | 824 | 16.8 | 3 |
| 2007 | 23 | • Dwayne Bowe, K.C. | 70 | 995 | 14.2 | 5 |
| 2007 | 27 | Robert Meachem, N.O. | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 |
| 2007 | 30 | Craig Davis, S.D. | 20 | 188 | 9.4 | 1 |
| 2007 | 32 | Anthony Gonzalez, Ind. | 37 | 576 | 15.6 | 3 |
| 2009 | 22 | • Percy Harvin, Minn. | 60 | 790 | 13.2 | 8 |
| 2009 | 29 | • Hakeem Nicks, NYG | 47 | 790 | 16.8 | 6 |
| 2009 | 30 | Kenny Britt, Tenn. | 42 | 701 | 16.7 | 3 |
| 2010 | 22 | Demaryius Thomas, Den. | 22 | 283 | 12.9 | 2 |
| 2010 | 24 | • Dez Bryant, Dall. | 45 | 561 | 12.5 | 8 |
| 2011 | 26 | Jon Baldwin, K.C. | 21 | 254 | 12.1 | 1 |
| 2012 | 30 | A.J. Jenkins, S.F. | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 |
| 2013 | 27 | • DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 52 | 802 | 15.4 | 2 |
| 2013 | 29 | • Cordarrelle Patterson, Minn. | 45 | 469 | 10.4 | 9 |
| 2014 | 28 | • Kelvin Benjamin, Car. | 73 | 1008 | 13.8 | 9 |
| 2015 | 26 | Breshad Perriman, Balt. | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 |
| 2015 | 29 | Phillip Dorsett, Ind. | 18 | 225 | 12.5 | 1 |
| 2016 | 21 | Will Fuller, Hou. | 47 | 635 | 13.5 | 3 |
| 2016 | 22 | Josh Doctson, Wash. | 2 | 66 | 33.0 | 0 |
| 2016 | 23 | Laquon Treadwell, Minn. | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| 2018 | 24 | D.J. Moore, Car. | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2018 | 26 | Calvin Ridley, Atl. | ? | ? | ? | ? |
Question 2
Kicker Strategy in TD-only leagues, last year you were big on Gostkowski (top 35 overall) with the Patriots having the ability to outscore most teams. I was all about the strategy and started a kicker run in round 4. Last year there were 7 teams over 141 points while in 2016 there were only 2. What do you expect for this year? Based on your rankings looks like I should grab one of the Gostkowski, Zuerlein, or Tucker.
Chris Winder (San Ramon, CA)
A large portion of the fantasy community dismisses kickers at meaningless. There are some leagues where they don’t even draft them. I am of the school of thought that TD-only leagues are different animal. They’re not like PPR or standard. In the TD-only system, it make some sense to use draft capital to secure a good kicker. When you’ve got a butt-kicker option – like Gostkowski, Zuerlein or Tucker – maybe even with a pick in the top 40. Think about it. In the TD-only format, quarterbacks receiver 4 points for touchdown passes. Kickers receive 3 points for field goals, plus 1 point for each extra point. So why is it that almost nobody will wait beyond the 8th round before selecting their first quarterback, while almost nobody will select a kicker in the first eight rounds? It can accurately be pointed out that some good kickers will emerge on the waiver wire. Harrison Butker, Greg Zuerlein, Jake Elliott and Robbie Gould weren’t even selected in most fantasy leagues that year. Fair enough. But it’s typically pretty similar with quarterbacks. Alex Smith, Deshaun Watson and Jared Goff weren’t chosen in most drafts last year.
Question 3
Do you have concerns about the Chiefs this year? Aside from harder strength of schedule, I see a downgrade from offensive coordinator and a risk of going with an unproven QB. It wouldn't surprise me that all the Chiefs underperform ADP. Does Index have the same concerns and are those concerns reflective in the stat projections?
Cody Hager (Portland, OR)
I don’t see Matt Nagy as a critical loss. They’ve still got Andy Reid there, running the show, and most of the staff is still in place. Patrick Mahomes is inexperienced, but at least he’s had a year to watch and learn. I don’t think they would have traded Alex Smith unless they had some belief Mahomes was ready to play. The offensive line isn’t great; that concerns me. As for the schedule, I’m not too worried about it. Of the last 15 teams that projected to play the hardest schedule in the league (using points), only six ended up actually playing schedules ranking in the bottom 10. Only four in the bottom 5
| PROJECTED HARDEST SCHEDULES (actual result) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Points | Rnk |
| 2003 | New Orleans | 20.8 | 20 |
| 2004 | • Cincinnati | 19.3 | 31 |
| 2005 | • New Orleans | 20.3 | 23 |
| 2006 | Detroit | 20.5 | 19 |
| 2007 | Buffalo | 22.1 | 9 |
| 2008 | • Detroit | 20.6 | 26 |
| 2009 | Miami | 22.3 | 17 |
| 2010 | • Cincinnati | 19.8 | 32 |
| 2011 | Detroit | 23.1 | 9 |
| 2012 | Cincinnati | 22.8 | 14 |
| 2013 | • St. Louis | 21.6 | 29 |
| 2014 | • Denver | 20.9 | 31 |
| 2015 | Cincinnati | 22.4 | 21 |
| 2016 | New England | 22.8 | 18 |
| 2017 | Oakland | 21.6 | 18 |
| 2018 | Kansas City | ? | ? |
In my eyes, Kansas City is as likely as anyone to win the AFC West.
Question 4
I often find myself flirting with a variety of strategies, and even 15 years of doing this competitively I’m still refining my approach. I’ve noticed through my own trends that I very rarely keep kickers and defenses longer than half a season. So perhaps I should just plan to ditch them after the first quarter of the season. Which defenses and kickers that are outside ADP top 10 do you believe will be most valuable the first quarter of the season based on matchups?
John Evans (Rochester, MN)
I posted a strength-of-schedule chart last week, showing teams projecting to play the easiest schedules in their first five games. I broke each team’s schedule into five-game chunks (discarding Week 17). If we go back and re-visit that chart, highlighting teams with lightly regarded kickers and defenses, a few names pop up. For kickers, perhaps Dan Bailey, Nick Novak, Dustin Hopkins and Matt Prater. Just outside the top 10, perhaps Graham Gano. For defenses, perhaps Saints, Patriots, Lions, Cowboys and Washington.
The defensive numbers there, of course, are based on general, offense-driven scheduling data. Suppose instead you wanted to try to identify the teams playing opponents allowing the most sacks and turnovers. And with your early-season interest, I’ll plug the numbers into the first six weeks of the season (going to Week 7 for teams with a bye in there). According to the 2017 data, the Jets, Ravens and Raiders have the most defense-friendly schedules early. On the chart below, I’m using 1 point for sacks and 2 for each interception and lost fumble.
| STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, Defenses (games 1-6) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Int | Sack | Fum | Points |
| NY Jets | 104 | 262 | 60 | 590 |
| Baltimore | 104 | 248 | 55 | 566 |
| Oakland | 101 | 224 | 56 | 538 |
| Seattle | 86 | 227 | 66 | 531 |
| Chicago | 91 | 254 | 44 | 524 |
| Indianapolis | 71 | 253 | 63 | 521 |
| New Orleans | 94 | 216 | 58 | 520 |
| Minnesota | 77 | 257 | 53 | 517 |
| Detroit | 87 | 241 | 48 | 511 |
| LA Chargers | 82 | 229 | 58 | 509 |
| New England | 79 | 251 | 49 | 507 |
| Dallas | 83 | 237 | 51 | 505 |
| Washington | 82 | 246 | 45 | 500 |
| Pittsburgh | 87 | 218 | 50 | 492 |
| Green Bay | 69 | 244 | 55 | 492 |
| Miami | 75 | 220 | 59 | 488 |
| Tennessee | 83 | 221 | 50 | 487 |
| LA Rams | 85 | 216 | 48 | 482 |
| Tampa Bay | 84 | 193 | 55 | 471 |
| Carolina | 73 | 207 | 59 | 471 |
| Arizona | 67 | 221 | 57 | 469 |
| NY Giants | 76 | 201 | 57 | 467 |
| Houston | 71 | 239 | 41 | 463 |
| Buffalo | 84 | 212 | 40 | 460 |
| Philadelphia | 74 | 216 | 47 | 458 |
| San Francisco | 74 | 232 | 38 | 456 |
| Atlanta | 74 | 195 | 56 | 455 |
| Jacksonville | 72 | 220 | 44 | 452 |
| Kansas City | 84 | 196 | 43 | 450 |
| Denver | 66 | 206 | 52 | 442 |
| Cincinnati | 86 | 199 | 35 | 441 |
| Cleveland | 73 | 160 | 49 | 404 |
Question 5
10-team, basic scoring league. We each have to keep 4 players. I draft 9th. Call me crazy, but I'm leaning towards keeping Cousins and Watson, plus Gostkowski, and Michael Thomas. Even though I'd like to keep them, I would then have to release the following candidates back to the draft pool: Dion Lewis, Alex Collins, Devonta Freeman, Rex Burkhead. In our league, scoring is dominated by QBs and kickers, so I value Gostkowski very highly and I would like the equivalent of a top-5 QB (which I hope to achieve by alternating Cousins and Watson). In this scheme, I would pretty much be drafting only RBs and receivers throughout the draft. Can you suggest a better plan?
Drew Paterson (Ferndale, WA)
Thomas and Freeman, I think, are your top 2 keepers. And I think Collins is No. 3 – I think he’ll be more knowledgeable and confident in his second season in Baltimore, and the offensive line should be a notch better. I’m not too worried about quarterbacks. There are 20 that I like, and with there being only 10 teams in your league, I think there will be enough to go around. I have taken considerable grief for ranking Watson 15th at the quarterback position. He’s not a guy I’m champing at the bit to select, and I have him below Cousins in most formats. But I believe I would go Watson before Cousins here. This is a TD-only format, and there are plenty of quarterbacks to go around. If Watson were to get hurt, I think you’d be able to replace him with somebody off the waiver wire along the lines of Andy Dalton, Derek Carr or one of the bottom-10 QBs who’s playing better than people expected. In this format, the name of the game is to obtain difference makers, and I think Watson has more potential than Cousins to be a difference maker. If you’re in a 12- or 14-team league, the safer play is to go with Cousins and his 16 games of solid production. I like Gostkowski, and I like kickers in TD-only leagues. But with each team protecting four players, protecting him would be equivalent to choosing him with a top-40 draft pick. I’m not sure that’s necessary. How do the other teams in your league value the position? I would be inclined to cut loose Gostkowski, then draft one of the three high-level kickers – Gostkowski, Zuerlein or Tucker.
Question 6
I am in a PPR keeper league. I get to keep 2. LeVeon Bell is for sure a keeper but who else do you keep? Fournette or Michael Thomas?
Bobby Davis (Sherwood, AR)
I don’t see a lot of difference between the three. Fournette is 11 pounds lighter this year and is three years younger than Bell. With it being PPR scoring, I have Bell slightly higher this year. But for 2019-2020, I don’t see a lot of difference between the two. Who knows where Bell will be playing? Michael Thomas catches a ton of balls, so with this being PPR scoring, I think he’s also in the mix to be the best of these three. With Thomas, there’s the long-term concern that Drew Brees might not last much longer. Thomas also has only two years left on his rookie contract. That might eventually have a hard time agreeing on his value. With his numbers, he may hope to get top-5 receiver money, but the Saints might view him as more of a product of their system. He has below-average speed. Some chance, I think, that they eventually give him the Brandin Cooks treatment, trading him away for a draft pick and going with somebody cheaper. So you’re in a pickle. You’ll just have to cross your fingers and pick two. Today, I’d go with Bell and Thomas.
Question 7
10 team with 2 keepers. I kept Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott. I have the #1 pick in the draft. Your projections with our scoring system give the best available for each position being Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, DeAndre Hopkins, and Rob Gronkowski. I'm leaning heavily towards Hopkins. Can you make an argument for any of the other three as to why I should go with them over Hopkins at 1?
JASON BUTTERFIELD (Schofield, WI)
Brees is 39. Gronkowski is an older tight end who’s had a lot of injuries. Those guys aren’t serious contenders, I think. Kamara is a nice player, and many in your spot would probably consider Saquon Barkley. But you’ve already got your two starting running backs. The sneaky play could be to work out a deal with the team picking 3rd, allowing him to leapfrog you into the No. 1 spot. Barkley and Kamara are the first two picks, and then you get Hopkins, who is the guy you wanted all along anyway.