Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. When do running backs and wide receivers tend to have their breakout years? Duke Johnson's sneaky value in PPR. Confusion over the rankings of Alex Collins and Russell Wilson. And looking for Bay Area values.
Question 1
As a stat guy, I am curious about your thoughts on how long (seasons) it is reasonable to expect that a player can break out? When is it time to give up on guys like Duke Johnson in Cleveland, or last year’s RB in Detroit (I forget his name) who the Index was high on? My gut feeling is that a RB needs to emerge by year 2 and a WR by year 3 or they are long shots. For example, of the top 10 RB of 2018 how many were stars by year 2 and how many emerged in year 3 or later. Bell, Gurley, Elliott, Kamara, Hunt, Gordon, Ingram, Fournette and Freeman. If I am correct there are a bunch of players that people need to let go of, in terms of expectations, it is just not going to happen. Of course there are exceptions and team changes. But even a guy like Ajayi, he should have had a great season by now and I think the few amazing games are red herrings. Many people know this, which is why Ajayi is so low even though he is on a great team with a good line, has talent and the opportunity.
Yaesha Newman ()
We could define a breakout season in a number of ways. It could be the first 1,000 rushing yards. It could be the first with top-10 numbers. It could be the first in the top 20. I will use top 20 here. If we take the 200 players in the last 10 years that have finished with top-20 numbers, we can then whittle those down, eliminating duplicates and looking at when each player cracked the top 20 for the first time. I noticed if we went back an additional year for wide receivers, we would have exactly 72 players each in both positions, so I went with that, and the numbers look like this …
| FIRST SEASONS WITH TOP-20 NUMBERS | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | RB | WR |
| rookie | 21 | 11 |
| 2nd year | 17 | 23 |
| 3rd year | 16 | 12 |
| 4th year | 9 | 8 |
| 5th year | 4 | 7 |
| 6th year | 1 | 6 |
| 7th year | 4 | 2 |
| 8th year | 0 | 1 |
| 9th year | 0 | 1 |
| 10th year | 0 | 0 |
| 11th year | 0 | 0 |
| 12th year | 0 | 1 |
Notice that almost twice as many running backs wind up in the top 20 in their first year. With both groups, most of the players either make the top 20 in their first three years, or it’s simply never happening. For the running backs, 54 of the 72 (that’s two thirds) showed up in the top 20 for the first time in their first three years, with half of the remaining group getting there in year No. 4. For wide receivers, it’s slightly fewer in those first three years (46 of 72) and there’s a greater chance of the player finally getting to the promised land later in their career. For running backs only 9 of 72 players had their first top-20 season after their 4th year. It happened twice as often for wide receivers (18 of 72).
Take that for what it’s worth. And stop taking shots at Duke Johnson. He’s a good player. He’s caught 127 passes in the last two years – 2nd-most of any running back in the league. He was the 11th-best running back in PPR scoring last year, and 19th in standard.
Question 2
My question is about the seemingly conflicting write-ups on Alex Collins in the magazine. In the RB section, Collins is ranked at 11, noting how he should be an improved performer in his second year ("especially as a receiver"). In addition, the write-up has tremendous optimism about his prospects. On the pages about the Baltimore team, however, the language is much more cautionary, even hinting that he might not keep the job all year. It is also advised there that no Baltimore RB has a chance at a top-10 finish, something that I never like to hear for the 11th-ranked RB. While I'm guessing that different people author those sections (is that correct?), there seems to be a great discrepancy in the projection of Collins. Is this essentially a point-counterpoint since there happens to be disagreement about him?
Moishe Steigmann (Milwaukee, WI)
I write all 32 of the team previews, and I write all of the capsules for the positional rankings (Andy’s got the defenses and offensive lines). In general, starting in mid-March I’ll spend one full day on each team. I tend to spend 6 hours looking at the numbers, trying to make sense of what a player is all about. At that point in the process, I’m settling on an overall team projection and deciding how those numbers will be divided amongst the players on the roster. I’m looking at coaching histories and all the relevant stats, and I’m reading the reports submitted by the area’s newspaper writers. For each player, this is where his first stat projection is created (rushing yards, receiving yards, etc.), and then I spend about 5-6 hours writing up the report – the first draft of the Baltimore story.
It’s only after completing all of the team write-ups that I get to switch the focus to the overall draft board and the positional stories. It’s at that time that I can start looking at the projections for all of the different players and get a sense of where they rank. At this stage of the process, I’ll tweak a few numbers if I think a player looks a little high or a little low. And then I pen the positional stories.
In the case of Collins, when I wrote the Ravens story, he didn’t jump out at me as a compelling back. When I wrote that story, I wasn’t thinking he’d be a top-10 type back. But after working my way through all the projections on all the teams, there he is. I think this is a case of there simply not being as many good running backs as there were 10 years ago. Collins definitely isn’t in the top tier, but he’s in the next group, I think. I will be willing to take him in leagues, but probably will try to insure that selection by picking up Dixon in the late rounds.
Question 3
Long time, many time. I'm confused by your rankings for Russell Wilson. In Standard and PPR, you have him as the 2nd ranked QB. But, in TD only, you have him 6th. I don't understand the thinking and/or the "science." Please elaborate.
ED HAYES (Lisle, IL)
We’ve got a numbers-driven system. For quarterbacks, I’m putting together a projection for each of the four important stat categories: passing yards, passing touchdowns, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns. Those numbers then determine where the player lands in any number of scoring systems. With Wilson, his style of play results in him grading out higher in scoring systems that include rushing yards. Rushing yards tend to be crucial in a lot of fantasy formats. They tend to count as much as passing yards, so when a player like Wilson averaged 35-plus rushing yards, it’s like him getting a 70-yard head start against immobile pocket passers like Manning, Rivers and Brady.
But Wilson doesn’t tend to run in a lot of touchdowns – just 1, 2 and 3 in the last three years. He’s really mobile, but that’s not something he’s trying to do. So when you shift to a TD-only format, he loses a lot of that mobility advantage. Also note that while Wilson threw 34 TDs last year, a big drop in that category is probably coming. Seattle has a new offense and lost two of their key pass catchers.
Let’s look at the quarterbacks this way. I’m listing the top 25 using per-game numbers. (So for this one, we’re getting out of worrying about how many games Watson, Luck and Wentz might play.) For each guy, I’m listing his expected points per game, and I’m listing his strength in each category relative to the other 25 players. This group, I expect will average 253 passing and 11 rushing yards. Per 16 games, I’ve got them finishing at 25.9 TD passes and 1.4 TD runs. For each category, if a player is listed at 100%, he’s right at the league average. If he’s at 90%, he’s below average. If he’s at 120%, he’s above average. Looking at Wilson, it’s rushing yards (254%) that’s his strongest category, and that’s not part of the TD-only format.
| PROJECTIONS FOR TOP-25 QUARTERBACKS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | P Yd | TDP | R Yd | TDR | PPG |
| Aaron Rodgers | 107% | 138% | 165% | 158% | 25.1 |
| Russell Wilson | 99% | 103% | 254% | 125% | 22.6 |
| Deshaun Watson | 96% | 102% | 213% | 169% | 22.0 |
| Jameis Winston | 108% | 106% | 87% | 69% | 21.8 |
| Cam Newton | 90% | 86% | 281% | 334% | 21.8 |
| Tom Brady | 110% | 117% | 11% | 24% | 21.7 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 108% | 118% | 19% | 18% | 21.7 |
| Drew Brees | 110% | 109% | 18% | 75% | 21.6 |
| Carson Wentz | 101% | 117% | 76% | 62% | 21.5 |
| Andrew Luck | 102% | 98% | 138% | 97% | 21.4 |
| Philip Rivers | 109% | 111% | 9% | 7% | 21.1 |
| Alex Smith | 103% | 91% | 129% | 99% | 20.9 |
| Marcus Mariota | 94% | 91% | 189% | 171% | 20.8 |
| Matthew Stafford | 103% | 100% | 70% | 65% | 20.6 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 98% | 94% | 116% | 123% | 20.4 |
| Matt Ryan | 105% | 98% | 52% | 26% | 20.3 |
| Kirk Cousins | 100% | 98% | 62% | 98% | 20.2 |
| Jared Goff | 100% | 111% | 21% | 23% | 20.1 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 104% | 89% | 47% | 91% | 20.0 |
| Andy Dalton | 96% | 97% | 80% | 72% | 19.6 |
| Blake Bortles | 92% | 78% | 167% | 162% | 19.4 |
| Derek Carr | 96% | 98% | 47% | 22% | 19.1 |
| Dak Prescott | 84% | 76% | 167% | 268% | 18.8 |
| Eli Manning | 95% | 92% | 10% | 9% | 18.1 |
| Case Keenum | 92% | 84% | 70% | 37% | 18.0 |
Question 4
I was all set to write in and say what a joke the Packers running backs are. And then I checked last year’s stats in the magazine and saw the three Packers backs combined for 14 touchdowns. Pretty impressive, but I still think the Green Bay running game is best avoided this year, particularly in the early rounds. Aaron Rodgers comes back. And even though Aaron Jones is suspended for the first two games, is there a clear-cut front runner to get carries and short TDs? Trying to guess what the Packers and Patriots do in the running game seems like a no-win situation.
Paul Owers (Lake Worth, FL)
New England’s situation, I think, is the cleaner of the two. At least with the Patriots, you can pencil in James White as the third-down type back for 16 games. And they’ll probably quickly settle on a goal-line back. With the Packers, there’s more potential for them to switch from back to back to back along the way. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ty Montgomery, Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones all lead the team in rushing in multiple games.
Question 5
Question on Bay Area teams. Is there anybody on those rosters you absolutely TRUST to meet/exceed their ADP substantially? Outside of McKinnon and Cooper, I don't see a guy I really want in my starting lineup beyond a bye-injury week down the line.
Vin Kmetz ()
Those are the two headliners, no doubt. But there are other viable players. Derek Carr and especially Jimmy Garoppolo are both on the list of acceptable quarterbacks who need to be drafted. A strong case can be made to select Garoppolo before Deshaun Watson, Carson Wentz and Andrew Luck – you get out of the durability worries. People don’t tend to like to talk about kickers much, but I have interest in Robbie Gould. He scored 145 points last year. The previous season, Matt Bryant scored 158 points when Kyle Shanahan was running Atlanta’s offense. Seems to me that Shanahan might be a kicker-friendly coach. I’ve got Pierre Garcon a lot higher on my board than he’s appearing elsewhere. I think he’s a good candidate for 80 catches. And if we’re talking about outperforming ADP, we need to mention Matt Breida. I expect McKinnon will catch lots of passes, but I don’t think he can be a heavy duty back who’s carrying the ball 15-20 times week in and week out. I think they’ll incorporate a second back who might wind up leading the team in rushing, and that probably will be Breida.
Question 6
In a dynasty league we get to keep a full team and add backups but must drop players on bench now. I have Dak Prescott and Andrew Luck. I'm leaning toward keeping Luck and then picking up a good back up (Mahomes, Trubisky). What’s your opinion?
MICHAEL OLESKE (Lafayette, LA)
Luck’s shoulder seems to be coming along fine. Unless he has some kind of troubling setback, I expect he’ll be the guy you keep. If he’s right physically, he’ll pass for a lot more yards and touchdowns than Prescott.
Question 7
When will your 2018 Index Open be available for signup?
Bryan Teegardin (Rochester, NY)
It’s up now. To access the contest, sign into the website and click on the “YOUR STUFF” tab. One of the available options will then be “Fantasy Index Open 2018”. It’s all there. Just use the drag-and-drop technology to formulate a top-20 at each of the six position (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, Def) by the August 9 deadline, and we’ll take it from there. The champion will be crowned in January, and he’ll receive a large trophy from the team at AffordableTrophies.com.
Question 8
On the updates, you have three sets of rankings, Standard, PPR, and TD only. Can I suggest a 4th (or get rid of TD-only!) – half-point PPR? How about putting it to a vote/poll among your subscribers. Two out of my three main leagues have been half-point PPR for years, and interpolating is a pain (I do the math on the Excel projections, but there's nothing like a good cheat sheet when it comes to drafting.)
David Leonard (Ormond Beach, FL)
I will post a poll, and we’ll see what the people say. I haven’t heard of many using half-point PPR. We have a number of pre-sets in the custom rankings area (including Standard, PPR, TD-only, ESPN, Yahoo, CBS Sportsline, etc.). Certainly the half-point PPR can be added to that area (saving you the time of having to work with the numbers in Excel). In that custom rankings area, of course, you can create any scoring system you wish – you could create quarter-point PPR if you want.
Question 9
Last year was my first year playing and I am in a PPR league. I get to keep 2 players and not sure who I should keep. Michael Thomas, Jerick McKinnon, Derrick Henry, Kenyan Drake and Evan Engram. I have the second pick in the draft and the person in the first spot offered me Davante Adams for Micheal Thomas and would swap spots with me in the draft order. Most people in the league know I am a big Giants fan and know I would like Saquon Barkley. If you were me would you do this trade and who would your second keeper be if Davante Adams has to be my first keeper?
Tom Clark ()
It’s a very fair trade offer, I think. The guy isn’t trying to pick your pocket. Michael Thomas is definitely your No. 1 keeper. If we were starting from scratch, he would be a top-10 pick in a PPR format. But Davante Adams isn’t a huge downgrade, I think. He’s the No. 1 option in Green Bay. He won’t catch as many passes, but he’ll score more touchdowns. Adams suffered two concussions last year, but I don’t think that’s a problem – both were caused by egregious hits that drew hefty fines. On my board, I’ve got Thomas as worth 32 more points than Adams for 2018 (268 to 236). But if you give away those 32 points, it allows you to get out of pulling your hair out trying to figure out what to do with that No. 2 overall pick. Saquon Barkley looks outstanding, and by far the best of the rookie – maybe also worth a top-10 pick overall if we were doing a startup league. And as an added bonus, you’re a Giants fan. I would do the swap. With that second keeper, today I would keep McKinnon. I’m not a huge fan of McKinnon as a runner, but this is PPR, and I think he’ll catch a ton of balls in that format – that’s how Kyle Shanahan runs his offense. The other three, I think, aren’t far behind McKinnon, so something may happen in a few weeks that elevates them into that spot. But for the Barkley trade, I would like to execute it today – I wouldn’t want the other guy to get cold feet if Barkley starts ripping off chunks of yards in the preseason.
Question 10
Hey, Ian! Love the product! Me and my dad finished 1st-2nd last season in our league based out of Winona, Minn., and we are very excited to defend it this season! Thanks! Go Pack!
Ryan Peterson (Phoenix, AZ)
Easiest question I’ve received all year, and I’ve got a two-part answer. 1) Thank you. 2) Why is a person in Minnesota a fan of the hated Packers?