I've been thinking about when the best time is to hold a fantasy draft lately. Maybe it's because I haven't actually scheduled drafts for either of the leagues I run yet, and I really ought to get around to doing that. I've long believed that later is better; less chance of a key performer getting hurt. But now I'm not so sure.
Best-ball leagues are becoming more common, some of which draft ridiculously early, and so are high-stakes leagues with drafts earlier all the time. I understand it from the company standpoint; obviously why have people drafting only in August when you can be selling them draft spots in May, June and July? But I didn't really get why anyone would want to spend hundreds or even thousands of dollars on a team where your top picks still have an entire training camp and exhibition slate to get through. (Not to mention the Chargers, who lose players for the season during conditioning tests.)
But the argument has been made to me that earlier drafts favor more knowledgeable owners. That come August, everyone knows who the starters, key backups and sleepers are, and everyone's looking at the same players. Drafting early gives an edge to those who have done their homework, not just waited for the big fantasy sites to cobble their rankings together.
And I can't really argue with that. Those of us in the industry have to get our magazines out, so we're analyzing rosters and studying players in May. I'm pretty comfortable I know way more than most fantasy players do that time of year. Because they're having fun watching baseball and the NBA playoffs and attending weddings and graduations and whatnot, while I'm trying to glean tidbits of information from the significant players who actually bother to show up for OTAs and do more than just ride a bike on the sidelines.
If you draft now, everyone has the same risk of losing their first-round pick in a meaningless exhibition game. And the reality is that one, most of those guys will play sparingly if at all in August anyway, and two, just getting through the preseason doesn't stop a guy from getting hurt in Week 1, or even tearing his ACL in a non-contact practice, like Deshaun Watson a year ago. Sure, you're shortening the window for these guys to get injured. But still not eliminating the strong possibility of your key guys getting hurt.
And that's when the mid- to late-round picks, which in theory will be superior by the educated, savvy fantasy players, become more important. If I'm confident that Andrew Luck will be healthy, or Matt Breida will be San Francisco's best running backs, I can take them later in July than they'll be selected in late August, when everyone knows what's up with them and their status.
If you wait and draft in August, though, there's not much advantage to having paid attention in June and July. Instead of being ahead of the curve on the rankings that come out just before the season, the people who tuned in only after their beach vacation is complete can just print out those final rankings and draft accordingly.
At the end of the day, I'm sure I'll schedule the drafts the week after the third preseason games, as I always do. Starters typically play the most that week, then are packed in mothballs until Week 1. Drafting early in August will be just too big a psychological hurdle for me and the rest of the owners to get past. This year.
But I'm coming around, closer to drafting earlier this year than ever. I do a couple of high-stakes leagues, and I'm now thinking I'll do one next week, and then one a month from now, and see which one fares better, both in the injury department and in terms of season success. These teams will be my case studies, and I'll report back on how things turned out at the end of the season. You're welcome.
If you strongly support drafting early, or late, let me know below, and we'll see if anyone can change anyone else's mind.