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Team offensive projections

Packers, Patriots project to have highest-scoring offenses

With projections, we tend to focus on the micro – specific numbers for individual players – but it also makes sense to look at the macro. Which offenses will finish with the most yards and touchdowns? I’ve got the Packers, Patriots and Saints at the top of the pile.

As the preseason begins, this is now part of the routine. For most of the week, I’m making adjustments based on specific events – injuries, signings and players coming up big (or small) in practices and games. But I also regularly like to take a step back and audit the overall expectations for each offense (the way I’m doing this, I’ve got the team and individual numbers tied together).

Factoring in everything – offseason research, recent years and how things seem to be playing out in camp – I’ve got four offenses averaging close to 3 TDs per game – Green Bay, New England, New Orleans and the Rams. In most years, some offense will really kick butt, scoring over 50 touchdowns, but I’m not ready to put that kind of a grade yet on any of these units.

It’s not easy to truly dismiss any offense in early August, and I have only four projecting to average fewer than 2 TDs per game – Bills (definitely last), and Cardinals, Jets and Dolphins.

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS
TeamPassRunTotal
Green Bay36.012.048.0
New England30.417.047.4
New Orleans28.617.946.6
LA Rams29.016.645.6
Pittsburgh30.912.643.5
Philadelphia29.113.042.1
LA Chargers29.010.639.5
Minnesota25.613.038.6
Atlanta25.612.838.4
Carolina22.414.737.1
Jacksonville20.316.637.0
Kansas City24.312.637.0
Tennessee24.013.037.0
Seattle27.09.636.6
Dallas19.716.836.5
Indianapolis25.910.636.5
Washington23.812.636.5
Houston26.79.836.5
Detroit26.110.236.3
San Francisco23.213.136.3
Oakland25.610.636.2
NY Giants23.712.336.0
Tampa Bay27.78.235.8
Baltimore21.913.835.7
Cincinnati25.110.235.4
Cleveland21.811.733.4
Denver22.110.933.0
Chicago19.412.832.2
Miami23.28.331.5
NY Jets17.811.729.4
Arizona19.89.429.3
Buffalo16.09.925.9

For passing production, I’ve got Green Bay at No. 1, with Aaron Rodgers the only guy that I would say has a great chance of throwing for 35-plus touchdowns. Then, not much difference between the Steelers, Patriots, Saints (old habits die hard) and Chargers.

I’ve got the Bills, Jets, Cowboys, Bears and Cardinals down at the bottom. I realize that many are thinking (hoping?) that Chicago will be a lot better, with a new offense and T-Biscuit doing more in his second year, but it’s not easy moving up. There are some signs of optimism with most of these teams.

Rankings here assume standard scoring, with 6 points for TDs and 1 for every 10 yards.

PROJECTED PASSING PRODUCTION
TeamYardsTDPPoints
Green Bay2732.2540.8
Pittsburgh2771.9339.3
New England2781.9039.2
New Orleans2811.7938.8
LA Chargers2781.8138.7
Tampa Bay2731.7337.7
LA Rams2571.8136.6
Atlanta2681.6036.4
Indianapolis2651.6236.2
Detroit2631.6336.1
Philadelphia2511.8236.0
Seattle2531.6935.4
San Francisco2671.4535.4
Washington2631.4935.2
Minnesota2551.6035.1
Houston2451.6734.5
Kansas City2481.5233.9
Oakland2431.6033.9
Cincinnati2421.5733.6
Tennessee2421.5033.2
NY Giants2421.4833.1
Denver2351.3831.8
Miami2301.4531.7
Carolina2281.4031.2
Jacksonville2351.2731.1
Baltimore2251.3730.7
Cleveland2251.3630.7
Arizona2221.2429.6
Chicago2201.2129.3
Dallas2151.2328.9
NY Jets2101.1127.7
Buffalo1921.0025.2

For rushing production, I have Dallas, Jacksonville, New Orleans and New England at the top. Tampa Bay, Miami, Detroit and Arizona are at the bottom. I realize the Bucs and Lions want to run more, and I realize the Cardinals are getting David Johnson back. But there are selling points for all 32 teams.

Rankings here assume standard scoring, with 6 points for TDs and 1 for every 10 yards.

PROJECTED RUSHING PRODUCTION
TeamYardsTDRPoints
Dallas1401.0520.3
Jacksonville1301.0419.2
New Orleans1201.1218.7
New England1171.0618.1
Baltimore124.8617.6
Carolina120.9217.5
LA Rams1121.0417.4
Philadelphia118.8116.7
Tennessee114.8116.3
Kansas City115.7916.2
Atlanta114.8016.2
Minnesota112.8116.1
Chicago112.8016.0
Cleveland115.7315.9
Green Bay112.7515.7
NY Giants110.7715.6
Washington108.7915.5
NY Jets110.7315.4
Houston116.6115.3
Pittsburgh105.7915.2
San Francisco103.8215.2
Seattle116.6015.2
Denver108.6814.9
Indianapolis107.6614.7
Oakland103.6614.3
Buffalo105.6214.2
Cincinnati103.6414.1
LA Chargers100.6614.0
Arizona100.5913.5
Detroit95.6413.3
Miami100.5213.1
Tampa Bay95.5112.6

As usual with this kind of thing, if you see any number that’s wildly out of whack (or if you simply want an explanation of the reasoning) use the comments section below.

—Ian Allan

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