With projections, we tend to focus on the micro – specific numbers for individual players – but it also makes sense to look at the macro. Which offenses will finish with the most yards and touchdowns? I’ve got the Packers, Patriots and Saints at the top of the pile.
As the preseason begins, this is now part of the routine. For most of the week, I’m making adjustments based on specific events – injuries, signings and players coming up big (or small) in practices and games. But I also regularly like to take a step back and audit the overall expectations for each offense (the way I’m doing this, I’ve got the team and individual numbers tied together).
Factoring in everything – offseason research, recent years and how things seem to be playing out in camp – I’ve got four offenses averaging close to 3 TDs per game – Green Bay, New England, New Orleans and the Rams. In most years, some offense will really kick butt, scoring over 50 touchdowns, but I’m not ready to put that kind of a grade yet on any of these units.
It’s not easy to truly dismiss any offense in early August, and I have only four projecting to average fewer than 2 TDs per game – Bills (definitely last), and Cardinals, Jets and Dolphins.
PROJECTED OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Pass | Run | Total |
Green Bay | 36.0 | 12.0 | 48.0 |
New England | 30.4 | 17.0 | 47.4 |
New Orleans | 28.6 | 17.9 | 46.6 |
LA Rams | 29.0 | 16.6 | 45.6 |
Pittsburgh | 30.9 | 12.6 | 43.5 |
Philadelphia | 29.1 | 13.0 | 42.1 |
LA Chargers | 29.0 | 10.6 | 39.5 |
Minnesota | 25.6 | 13.0 | 38.6 |
Atlanta | 25.6 | 12.8 | 38.4 |
Carolina | 22.4 | 14.7 | 37.1 |
Jacksonville | 20.3 | 16.6 | 37.0 |
Kansas City | 24.3 | 12.6 | 37.0 |
Tennessee | 24.0 | 13.0 | 37.0 |
Seattle | 27.0 | 9.6 | 36.6 |
Dallas | 19.7 | 16.8 | 36.5 |
Indianapolis | 25.9 | 10.6 | 36.5 |
Washington | 23.8 | 12.6 | 36.5 |
Houston | 26.7 | 9.8 | 36.5 |
Detroit | 26.1 | 10.2 | 36.3 |
San Francisco | 23.2 | 13.1 | 36.3 |
Oakland | 25.6 | 10.6 | 36.2 |
NY Giants | 23.7 | 12.3 | 36.0 |
Tampa Bay | 27.7 | 8.2 | 35.8 |
Baltimore | 21.9 | 13.8 | 35.7 |
Cincinnati | 25.1 | 10.2 | 35.4 |
Cleveland | 21.8 | 11.7 | 33.4 |
Denver | 22.1 | 10.9 | 33.0 |
Chicago | 19.4 | 12.8 | 32.2 |
Miami | 23.2 | 8.3 | 31.5 |
NY Jets | 17.8 | 11.7 | 29.4 |
Arizona | 19.8 | 9.4 | 29.3 |
Buffalo | 16.0 | 9.9 | 25.9 |
For passing production, I’ve got Green Bay at No. 1, with Aaron Rodgers the only guy that I would say has a great chance of throwing for 35-plus touchdowns. Then, not much difference between the Steelers, Patriots, Saints (old habits die hard) and Chargers.
I’ve got the Bills, Jets, Cowboys, Bears and Cardinals down at the bottom. I realize that many are thinking (hoping?) that Chicago will be a lot better, with a new offense and T-Biscuit doing more in his second year, but it’s not easy moving up. There are some signs of optimism with most of these teams.
Rankings here assume standard scoring, with 6 points for TDs and 1 for every 10 yards.
PROJECTED PASSING PRODUCTION | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDP | Points |
Green Bay | 273 | 2.25 | 40.8 |
Pittsburgh | 277 | 1.93 | 39.3 |
New England | 278 | 1.90 | 39.2 |
New Orleans | 281 | 1.79 | 38.8 |
LA Chargers | 278 | 1.81 | 38.7 |
Tampa Bay | 273 | 1.73 | 37.7 |
LA Rams | 257 | 1.81 | 36.6 |
Atlanta | 268 | 1.60 | 36.4 |
Indianapolis | 265 | 1.62 | 36.2 |
Detroit | 263 | 1.63 | 36.1 |
Philadelphia | 251 | 1.82 | 36.0 |
Seattle | 253 | 1.69 | 35.4 |
San Francisco | 267 | 1.45 | 35.4 |
Washington | 263 | 1.49 | 35.2 |
Minnesota | 255 | 1.60 | 35.1 |
Houston | 245 | 1.67 | 34.5 |
Kansas City | 248 | 1.52 | 33.9 |
Oakland | 243 | 1.60 | 33.9 |
Cincinnati | 242 | 1.57 | 33.6 |
Tennessee | 242 | 1.50 | 33.2 |
NY Giants | 242 | 1.48 | 33.1 |
Denver | 235 | 1.38 | 31.8 |
Miami | 230 | 1.45 | 31.7 |
Carolina | 228 | 1.40 | 31.2 |
Jacksonville | 235 | 1.27 | 31.1 |
Baltimore | 225 | 1.37 | 30.7 |
Cleveland | 225 | 1.36 | 30.7 |
Arizona | 222 | 1.24 | 29.6 |
Chicago | 220 | 1.21 | 29.3 |
Dallas | 215 | 1.23 | 28.9 |
NY Jets | 210 | 1.11 | 27.7 |
Buffalo | 192 | 1.00 | 25.2 |
For rushing production, I have Dallas, Jacksonville, New Orleans and New England at the top. Tampa Bay, Miami, Detroit and Arizona are at the bottom. I realize the Bucs and Lions want to run more, and I realize the Cardinals are getting David Johnson back. But there are selling points for all 32 teams.
Rankings here assume standard scoring, with 6 points for TDs and 1 for every 10 yards.
PROJECTED RUSHING PRODUCTION | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDR | Points |
Dallas | 140 | 1.05 | 20.3 |
Jacksonville | 130 | 1.04 | 19.2 |
New Orleans | 120 | 1.12 | 18.7 |
New England | 117 | 1.06 | 18.1 |
Baltimore | 124 | .86 | 17.6 |
Carolina | 120 | .92 | 17.5 |
LA Rams | 112 | 1.04 | 17.4 |
Philadelphia | 118 | .81 | 16.7 |
Tennessee | 114 | .81 | 16.3 |
Kansas City | 115 | .79 | 16.2 |
Atlanta | 114 | .80 | 16.2 |
Minnesota | 112 | .81 | 16.1 |
Chicago | 112 | .80 | 16.0 |
Cleveland | 115 | .73 | 15.9 |
Green Bay | 112 | .75 | 15.7 |
NY Giants | 110 | .77 | 15.6 |
Washington | 108 | .79 | 15.5 |
NY Jets | 110 | .73 | 15.4 |
Houston | 116 | .61 | 15.3 |
Pittsburgh | 105 | .79 | 15.2 |
San Francisco | 103 | .82 | 15.2 |
Seattle | 116 | .60 | 15.2 |
Denver | 108 | .68 | 14.9 |
Indianapolis | 107 | .66 | 14.7 |
Oakland | 103 | .66 | 14.3 |
Buffalo | 105 | .62 | 14.2 |
Cincinnati | 103 | .64 | 14.1 |
LA Chargers | 100 | .66 | 14.0 |
Arizona | 100 | .59 | 13.5 |
Detroit | 95 | .64 | 13.3 |
Miami | 100 | .52 | 13.1 |
Tampa Bay | 95 | .51 | 12.6 |
As usual with this kind of thing, if you see any number that’s wildly out of whack (or if you simply want an explanation of the reasoning) use the comments section below.
—Ian Allan