Headline writers, they're the worst. But Seattle's top draft pick, a curious selection from the get-go, will miss "some time" due to a hand injury that includes a broken finger. Considering he was working firmly behind Chris Carson anyway, and the season is just 26 days away, you can pretty much forget him starting in Week 1.
Penny will have surgery that will sideline him three to four weeks. Maybe he's ready for Week 1, but he'd no doubt have a limited, backup role even if active. Carson should start, C.J. Prosise might be the third-down back, Mike Davis might make the team.
Whatever the case, if you draft Penny, it's with the idea that maybe he takes over the starting job a month into the season, after Carson either gets hurt or otherwise disappoints.
For those keeping score at home, there were two running backs selected late in the first round this year -- outside the top 20. Both of them, Penny and Sony Michel, are hurt and questionable for the start of the season.
Since 2000, there have been 20 other running backs selected at the point of the draft. Exactly two (Chris Johnson and Doug Martin) have put up great numbers in their rookie seasons. Three others were pretty good (over 1,000 total yards). Those players are in bold. One third (5 of 15) of the other backs had value at some point during their rookie seasons (800 total yards). The other 10 (so, half of the group) did very little in their first seasons. By missing basically all of August, that's the track Penny and Michel are on.
| RUNNING BACKS; LATE FIRST-ROUNDERS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Run | Rec | Total | TD |
| 2000 | Trung Canidate, St.L. | 6 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| 2001 | Michael Bennett, Minn. | 682 | 226 | 908 | 3 |
| 2001 | Deuce McAllister, N.O. | 91 | 166 | 257 | 2 |
| 2003 | Larry Johnson, K.C. | 85 | 2 | 87 | 1 |
| 2003 | Willis McGahee, Buff. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2004 | Kevin Jones, Det. | 1133 | 180 | 1313 | 6 |
| 2004 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 673 | 189 | 862 | 4 |
| 2004 | Chris Perry, Cin. | 1 | 33 | 34 | 0 |
| 2006 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | 1081 | 325 | 1406 | 8 |
| 2006 | Laurence Maroney, N.E. | 745 | 194 | 939 | 7 |
| 2006 | DeAngelo Williams, Car. | 501 | 313 | 814 | 2 |
| 2008 | Chris Johnson, Tenn. | 1228 | 260 | 1488 | 10 |
| 2008 | Felix Jones, Dall. | 266 | 10 | 276 | 4 |
| 2008 | Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt. | 58 | 17 | 75 | 0 |
| 2009 | Beanie Wells, Ariz. | 793 | 143 | 936 | 7 |
| 2009 | Donald Brown, Ind. | 281 | 169 | 450 | 3 |
| 2010 | Jahvid Best, Det. | 555 | 487 | 1032 | 6 |
| 2011 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 474 | 46 | 520 | 5 |
| 2012 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 1454 | 472 | 1926 | 12 |
| 2012 | David Wilson, NYG | 358 | 34 | 392 | 5 |
| 2018 | Rashaad Penny, Sea. | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2018 | Sony Michel, N.E. | ? | ? | ? | ? |
Too soon to write either back off, of course. Carson isn't proven, and he also needs to stay healthy. But will be difficult for either rookie to make a big 2018 impact.
--Andy Richardson