I had my first fantasy draft of the year last night, one of four I'll be doing this week. Unbelievably, I've landed the No. 9 spot in three of them, with the fourth yet to be determined. No Todd Gurley for me. On the bright side, the early-round lessons from one draft can be applied to the others. Thought I'd share some of what I learned -- or at least, think I learned -- from last night.
This was a PPR draft, which most of them are these days. It affects selection of wide receivers a little, and helps the value of the likes of James White, although I'm not sure most people's strategy changes a ton. OK, here's what I came out of it with.
You almost have to take a running back in the first round. I say "almost" because of course someone will take Antonio Brown. But 10 of the top 12 picks were running backs, with the exceptions Brown (No. 4) and DeAndre Hopkins (who I took at No. 9). I would have taken Kareem Hunt had he been there, but he was gone and my options were Melvin Gordon and Christian McCaffrey. I considered both but believe Hopkins is better and he's like the No. 4 overall player in our PPR rankings, so I took him.
But the cost is high, because with 10 backs going in the first round, you're about guaranteed to miss out on, yes, the top 10 running backs. And depending on where your pick is in the first round, you're also going to miss out on 3-5 more. The guy who took Brown at No. 4 was left with Joe Mixon as his No. 1 running back in the 2nd round. His other option that early was Jordan Howard. That's what you're facing if you take AB.
Whatever you take in the first round, you probably shouldn't take a running back in the second round. After drafting Hopkins, and knowing my next pick wouldn't be until 3.09, I surely wanted to draft a running back in the second. But my choices were Mixon, Howard or Dalvin Cook at running back...or Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen, A.J. Green, Tyreek Hill etc. at wide receiver. All of those guys are not only better fantasy prospects than Mixon or Howard (I think) but a lot better. I simply couldn't fathom passing up Thomas or Allen, two of the game's very best wideouts, for the starting running back for the Bears or Bengals. (Cook I'm wary of with the ACL.) We have Thomas a spot higher but I took Allen, basically knowing I was going to select Rivers later in the draft. (I did.)
As an aside, I could also have taken Rob Gronkowski or Travis Kelce at this spot and won the TE position each week.
The unfortunate consequence of starting out wide receiver-wide receiver is that the wide receivers in the third and fourth rounds are still really good -- and a lot better than the remaining running backs. So, I should have taken a running back in the first round. That's the lesson. With a bunch of really good wide receivers on the board (Amari Cooper, Doug Baldwin, Larry Fitzgerald) I took Kenyan Drake instead, then went with another wideout (Cooper) in the fourth. OK, but I think I'd have been better off taking a runner in the first and wideouts with my next three picks.
If you don't take 2 running backs in the first four rounds, plan to take lots of them later. I think there are plenty of decent options for starters outside the first four rounds, but no sure things. Mark Ingram (who I hoped to get in the fifth), the Titans committee, Carlos Hyde. You might be just fine with any of those players; with Ingram you just need to fill the void for a few weeks. So to make sure you cover the position, expect to take a lot. Committee backs, handcuffs, and/or veterans who might have a good year left, ala Adrian Peterson (8th round in this draft) or Alfred Morris (my 15th-rounder).
Mid-round value on tight ends. I considered Ertz in the fourth, but took Cooper instead. And I'm glad I did (you know, if we're right on Cooper) since come the 6th and 7th rounds I could still grab a couple of our top tight ends, Evan Engram and Trey Burton. Since I took them (the league has two flex spots), I don't know how much further both would have fallen. But the league robots consider me strongest in the league at TE, so there's that. Weakest at running back, natch.
Wait on a quarterback. Deshaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers went in the third and fourth rounds. Too rich for my blood, but I can't argue too much. And then it was three full rounds before the mini run of Russell Wilson, Tom Brady and Cam Newton occurred. I took Philip Rivers at 8.04, maybe too early but he was the last one I really wanted as my starter. Seems too early when you consider I backed him up with Ben Roethlisberger, who was available in the 12th. Jameis Winston, who also would have been a fine backup, went in the 16th. Is Deshaun Watson and the RB/WR available to you in the 12th-16th rounds really going to be better than the RB/WR you could have taken in the third and Roethlisberger/Winston? I doubt it.
Depth at WR enables you to select a D or PK earlier than usual.In the later rounds, wide receivers I like just fine -- potential No. 1s -- like Kenny Stills, all of the Titans wideouts, and many others were just sitting there. I'd pretty much locked up the position with early picks and wasn't worried about my depth, though I did take John Brown. But there are enough good options that I nearly took the Jaguars D or Stephen Gostkowski much earlier than you'd normally go (planned on the Jags at 11.09, but someone took the Rams at 11.03 and the Jags went two picks later. So I swerved to Austin Ekeler, guess I should have taken Gordon in the first, and then grabbed the Chargers in the 13th. Bottom line, I think it's worth taking your top D or kicker a little earlier, with a sameness between the runners and receivers available from the 10-15th rounds.
End of the day, I like my team quite a bit. Strong at the top at WR, TE and QB. Managed to get two (I think) every-down running backs, or most-down running backs, in Kenyan Drake and Jamaal Williams, and then another early-season starter, probably, in Alfred Morris, and a whole lot of handcuff types who could be full-timers if injuries strike (John Kelly, Austin Ekeler, and a couple of my own handcuffs).
But truth be told, if I had it to do over again...and on Wednesday, I will...
I'd take a running back in the first round.