Beat reporters are closer to the team than the average fans. Big media sites have more staffers sifting through Tweets and whatnot. But I think people underestimate the importance of things that actually happen, and it seems to be occurring with Alfred Morris.
It's discussed at this link, which includes an ESPN reporter saying "I don't think there's any evidence to indicate he's going to take reps from Jerick McKinnon or Matt Breida yet, assuming they're healthy for Week 1."
At the risk of being argumentative, there's no evidence to indicate he's NOT going to take reps -- or even the starting job -- from them, either. When did McKinnon or Breida become some kind of unquestioned franchise running back who can't lose his job to another player because he gets hurt or (gasp!) simply isn't as good?
Yes, San Francisco gave McKinnon a boatload of money in free agency. Fine. They also drafted C.J. Beathard in the third round and traded up to select Joe Williams in the fourth round, evidently believing at the time that those guys were key to their franchise's fortunes at quarterback and running back. But then things happened: Jimmy Garoppolo became available. Williams was lousy and got hurt. Teams move on quickly all the time.
McKinnon has never held up as a feature back, generally struggling or getting hurt with his many opportunities in Minnesota. It all looked nice when San Francisco targeted him in free agency, gave him a big contract, and everyone talked about how he was going to be Kyle Shanahan's Devonta Freeman. But then McKinnon got hurt. And so did the team's other running backs. And then Alfred Morris signed and immediately looked like a natural fit in Shanahan's offense (understandably, since he's done it before), carrying 17 times for 84 yards.
Should Morris be drafted as a fantasy starter? No; there's some uncertainty. But neither should McKinnon. He's hurt, there are other backs on the roster, and time moves on.
What I'll readily concede is that McKinnon will likely play a major role; he's going to have some fantasy value. Morris quite famously cannot a catch a whit, and that's a big part of San Francisco's offense. A year ago, even with Carlos Hyde falling out of favor, only seven backs accounted for a larger share of their team's receptions than he did. And McKinnon was pretty productive in that area for Minnesota.
| RB RECEPTIONS, % OF TEAM, 2017 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | I.Rec | I.Yds | T.Rec | T.Yds | %Rec | %Yds |
| Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 80 | 651 | 293 | 3319 | 27% | 20% |
| Duke Johnson, Clev. | 74 | 693 | 312 | 3537 | 24% | 20% |
| LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 85 | 655 | 384 | 4534 | 22% | 14% |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 81 | 826 | 389 | 4619 | 21% | 18% |
| LeSean McCoy, Buff. | 59 | 448 | 289 | 3086 | 20% | 15% |
| Todd Gurley, LAR | 64 | 788 | 320 | 4023 | 20% | 20% |
| Tarik Cohen, Chi. | 53 | 358 | 291 | 3085 | 18% | 12% |
| Carlos Hyde, S.F. | 59 | 350 | 362 | 4235 | 16% | 8% |
| Melvin Gordon, LAC | 58 | 476 | 366 | 4551 | 16% | 10% |
| Mark Ingram, N.O. | 58 | 416 | 389 | 4619 | 15% | 9% |
| Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 53 | 455 | 363 | 4326 | 15% | 11% |
| James White, N.E. | 56 | 429 | 386 | 4334 | 15% | 10% |
| Jerick McKinnon, Minn. | 51 | 421 | 357 | 3929 | 14% | 11% |
| Theo Riddick, Det. | 53 | 444 | 374 | 4470 | 14% | 10% |
| Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 43 | 389 | 304 | 3386 | 14% | 11% |
| DeMarco Murray, Tenn. | 39 | 266 | 306 | 3394 | 13% | 8% |
| Javorius Allen, Balt. | 46 | 250 | 363 | 3235 | 13% | 8% |
| Lamar Miller, Hou. | 36 | 327 | 299 | 3644 | 12% | 9% |
| Shane Vereen, NYG | 44 | 253 | 373 | 3680 | 12% | 7% |
| Matt Forte, NYJ | 37 | 293 | 323 | 3501 | 11% | 8% |
| Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 36 | 302 | 316 | 3716 | 11% | 8% |
| Chris Thompson, Wash. | 39 | 510 | 347 | 4093 | 11% | 12% |
| Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 36 | 317 | 343 | 4146 | 10% | 8% |
| Frank Gore, Ind. | 29 | 245 | 285 | 3226 | 10% | 8% |
| J.D. McKissic, Sea. | 34 | 266 | 340 | 3979 | 10% | 7% |
| Joe Mixon, Cin. | 30 | 287 | 304 | 3386 | 10% | 8% |
| DeAndre Washington, Oak. | 34 | 197 | 347 | 3761 | 10% | 5% |
| Andre Ellington, Ariz. | 33 | 297 | 339 | 3979 | 10% | 7% |
| T.J. Yeldon, Jac. | 30 | 224 | 316 | 3716 | 9% | 6% |
| Charles Sims, T.B. | 35 | 249 | 378 | 4607 | 9% | 5% |
| Kyle Juszczyk, S.F. | 33 | 315 | 362 | 4235 | 9% | 7% |
| Wayne Gallman, NYG | 34 | 193 | 373 | 3680 | 9% | 5% |
| Danny Woodhead, Balt. | 33 | 200 | 363 | 3235 | 9% | 6% |
| Devontae Booker, Den. | 30 | 275 | 332 | 3668 | 9% | 7% |
| Isaiah Crowell, Clev. | 28 | 182 | 312 | 3537 | 9% | 5% |
| Kenyan Drake, Mia. | 32 | 239 | 373 | 3792 | 9% | 6% |
But I can't agree with the opinion that Morris is just an insurance policy. I'll happily draft him in the later rounds while others use early picks on McKinnon. They might be getting all the catches and receiving yards, but I might be getting most of the rushing yards and the touchdown.
Maybe the starter, too.
--Andy Richardson