Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: What is the value of a suspension-free LeSean McCoy? Is this the year Jordan Reed stays healthy? Is FFI poised for a swing and a miss on Kenyan Drake? And more.
Question 1
You have Jordan Reed fairly low among tight ends, and I was wondering if it was because he’s a massive injury risk or because you are expecting him to regress from what he’s done in the past. He’s put up some monster games when he’s healthy (although I know that’s not often), and I’ve been considering taking a gamble on him with the 80th pick and pairing him with someone like Doyle, Hooper or Burton in a later round for if/when he gets injured. Do you think he is still capable of putting up top 3 tight end numbers when he’s healthy?
Kent Curtis (Lynnwood, WA)
He’s been in the league for five years, and he’s missed multiple games in each of those seasons. In all but one of those seasons, he’s been sidelined by multiple injuries. I don’t think he can stay healthy, and I worry that now he might be at the point where he’s no longer the same physically. He put up difference-making numbers in 2015-2016, but last year he averaged only 35 receiving yards in his six games, with 2 TDs – those aren’t top-10 numbers for a tight end. Vernon Davis, meanwhile, may be 34 years old, but he doesn’t seem to be nearing the end of the road physically at all, and Davis and Alex Smith seem to have a good rapport. They worked together in San Francisco. So even when Reed is healthy and playing, I expect Davis will also be out there a lot and catching balls (if Reed misses a bunch of games, a lot of us will be wishing we had selected Davis). With Washington also have a trifecta of wide receivers who’ll all but involved and one of the league’s best pass-catching running backs, the idea of selecting Reed before Trey Burton is crazy.
Question 2
Which second-year running back do you see having a sophomore slump?
Russ Neis (Eagan, MN)
Typically we all tend to get excited about running backs who play well in their first year – like Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, Kareem Hunt and to a lesser extent Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook. If they had some success in their first year, the theory goes, just imagine what they’ll do now that they’ve had a chance to better learn the offense. Reality, however, is that when a running back plays well (whether he’s in his first, second, third year or whenever, that’s hard to follow up on.
In this century, 19 rookie running backs have finished with top-10 numbers using standard scoring. Only five of those players came back the next year and finished with better overall production. Check out the following chart. It of those backs’ improvement (but more often decline) in five categories: receiving yards, rushing yards, total yards, touchdowns and fantasy points. The guys tagged with black dots got worse.
| RUNNING BACKS / SOPHOMORE SLUMP | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft | Player | Rec | Run | Total | TD | Points |
| 2000 | • Mike Anderson | -123 | -822 | -945 | -11 | -160.5 |
| 2001 | LaDainian Tomlinson | 122 | 447 | 569 | 5 | 86.9 |
| 2002 | • Clinton Portis | -50 | 83 | 33 | -3 | -12.7 |
| 2004 | • Willis McGahee | 9 | 119 | 128 | -8 | -35.2 |
| 2006 | • Maurice Jones-Drew | -29 | -173 | -202 | -6 | -56.2 |
| 2007 | Adrian Peterson | -143 | 419 | 276 | -3 | 9.6 |
| 2008 | • Steve Slaton | 40 | -845 | -805 | -3 | -98.5 |
| 2008 | • Matt Forte | -6 | -309 | -315 | -8 | -77.5 |
| 2010 | • Peyton Hillis | -347 | -590 | -937 | -10 | -153.7 |
| 2012 | • Trent Richardson | -51 | -387 | -438 | -8 | -91.8 |
| 2012 | • Alfred Morris | 1 | -338 | -337 | -6 | -69.7 |
| 2012 | Jamaal Charles | 457 | -222 | 235 | 13 | 101.5 |
| 2012 | • Doug Martin | -406 | -998 | -1404 | -11 | -206.4 |
| 2013 | Eddie Lacy | 170 | -39 | 131 | 2 | 25.1 |
| 2014 | • Jeremy Hill | -136 | -330 | -466 | 3 | -26.6 |
| 2015 | • Todd Gurley | 139 | -221 | -82 | -4 | -32.2 |
| 2015 | David Johnson | 422 | 658 | 1080 | 7 | 152.0 |
| 2016 | • Ezekiel Elliott | -94 | -648 | -742 | -7 | -116.2 |
| 2016 | • Jordan Howard | -173 | -191 | -364 | 2 | -24.4 |
Question 3
Long-time subscriber picking 7th out of 12th in a half-PPR league. I am astounded at how highly you have Kenyan Drake ranked in the last several updates. He's currently ranked 13th among RBs and 20th overall on your projections using my league's scoring system. Did Kenyan Drake show anything last year (or this preseason) to suggest he'll be that valuable? His ADP for half-PPR is currently averaging 4.03. If I follow the Index's advice, I should be drafting Drake with my 7th pick of the third round because the odds are against him being there with pick 4.05. All for a guy who couldn't beat out Jay Ajayi last year and who will have "Old Man" Frank Gore vulching TDs and touches from him this year. Is he really worth betting the draft on? I thought this was one of your dreaded 'tall-and-lanky-runs-upright-and-kind-of-injury-prone' RBs?
Andrew Napoli (Alexandria, VA)
Durability could be a concern, I suppose. He was never more than a third-down back at Alabama. He’s built more like a wide receiver (6-1, 216). And I’m not crazy about the team he’s on. But Drake can play. He’s averaged 5.0 yards per carry over the last two years. In the five games he started at the end of last year he averaged 119 yards (89 run, 30 rec). He might be the league’s best big-play running back. In limited playing time in the preseason, he’s had 3 plays of 30-plus yards. In the regular season last year, there with 47 running backs with least 100 carries. Drake was the only one who gained 20-plus yards on over 5 percent of his carries. If I were in your league, he’d be one of the guys I would be thinking about in the third round. You’ll probably be weighing him against one of the last few really good receivers – perhaps T.Y. Hilton, Amari Cooper or JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Question 4
What do you think the chances are that LeSean McCoy gets suspended? What round would you be comfortable drafting him with the uncertainty of him missing some games?
Daniel Burks (Baltimore, MD)
A suspension looks pretty likely to me. It seems clear that his ex-girlfriend was assaulted. She says that McCoy was involved – that he hired someone to come out to the house in Georgia and assault her. I’m not sure that she’ll be able to prove that in court, but the NFL is running its own investigation. If the league believes that McCoy was involved, a suspension would follow. With only four months left in the year, I suppose there’s some chance that a league suspension might not happen until 2019, but I see McCoy as a high-risk selection. He’s 30, and he’s playing for what appears to be the league’s worst team. Buffalo’s offensive line has really fallen apart, and it doesn’t have much in terms of quarterbacks and pass catchers. I would not even think about McCoy until at least 20 other running backs are chosen. So far I’m in 6-8 leagues, and in none of them has it gotten to the point where I’ve even been thinking about McCoy.
Question 5
In leagues where TD throws are worth 6 instead of standard 4, do the elite QBs become more valuable? At what pick would you start thinking on taking Rodgers?
Shawn Hamer (Williamstown, NJ)
Quarterbacks become more valuable. I ran the numbers, and a lot of them show up a half-round earlier on the overall board. Rodgers moves up to becoming a possibility early in the second round. The problem, however, is that we’re still overstocked at that position. How are you going to stop somebody in your league from pretty much blowing off that position, picking up Jameis Winston, Alex Smith and Andy Dalton in the later rounds? So while I’m moving quarterbacks up on my board, I still have only six in my top 50 overall (and only three of those are in the top 40). With 4 points, I have only three quarterbacks in the top 50.
Question 6
A fun fantasy game would be: What would your team be if you had to have a QB outside the top 12, two WR from outside top 24, two RB outside top 24 and a TE outside the top 12? I would start Cam Newton, McCoy, Jeremy Hill, Robby Anderson, Kelvin Benjamin and David Njoku. This game should be a post on the website. We need more games for fans!
Yaesha Newman ()
Speaking of games, we are going to run the Fantasy Blackout contest again this year (with readers picking an ideal lineup each week). Only catch is that some of the big-time players are removed. In Week 1, for example, you won’t be able to pick the Ravens defense (against Buffalo). We’ll also have all three of the uber-elite tight ends blacked out – Gronkowski, Kelce, Ertz. The tech guys are putting the final touches on the game, and it will show up on the website soon.
Question 7
Following up on a previous question about what to do with Elliott on draft day. You said he'd need to be knocked down a spot or two. However, even after the last rankings he's still overall at 2. Can you explain that? Is he still the pick at that spot?
Bill Petilli (Harrison, NY)
I think so. That’s not to minimize the impact of losing Travis Frederick, but I don’t know how long he’ll be out. Two games? The entire season? Stephen Jones said the other day that they won’t put Frederick on injured reserve. To me, that an indication that there’s some hope he’ll return in the first half of the season. And even if they don’t have Frederick, that’s still a good offensive line. Zack Martin is about as good as any guard in the league, and Tyron Smith might be the game’s best left tackle. I downgraded Elliott slightly, but it’s not easy finding another back to move ahead of him. The line David Johnson is running behind is far inferior to Dallas’ (even if Frederick doesn’t play at all). The season is starting in a week and LeVeon Bell hasn’t signed – what kind of shape will he be in? And with Alvin Kamara, you’re getting into a different kind of back. I’m not trying to put my head in the sand, but I’m sticking with Elliott.
Question 8
I have a question about Robby Anderson from the Jets. Is there something wrong with him? He is rated the 47th WR by you and his stats from last year are better than a lot of receivers ahead of him. For example Amari Cooper! Why?
Chuck McKenna (Havertown, PA)
Anderson got open for a lot of bombs last year, and that was apparent in the preseason a year ago. I remember him smoking past Tennessee’s secondary for a long catch at MetLife. I haven’t seen that this August. They’ve been throwing a lot of short stuff – comeback routes and quick throws to the sidelines. Anderson has caught 3 passes for 23 yards. Can Sam Darnold deliver those long balls? I haven’t seen it yet. Nor have I seen him getting great protection. And if we’re turning this into more of a short passing offense, how much better is Anderson than their other wide receivers. Quincy Enunwa looked pretty good last week. Jermaine Kearse will contribute. Anderson is really thin (6-3, 190); I haven’t seen him be successful yet on the shorter routes and working in traffic. I also saw a report suggesting the league is still mulling whether to suspend him after a pair of off-field incidents in January.
Question 9
I see that you have Christian McCaffrey ranked in the top 10 in every format. I realize he's getting the lion's share of the work in the preseason, but top-10 seems awfully high (especially in non-PPR formats) for a scatback who isn't likely to bang in the goal-line touchdowns. He feels like a first-round reach to me. I don't think I'd seriously consider him before the middle of the second round. If one of my league mates takes him earlier, I think that's a win for me.
Paul Owers (Lake Worth, FL)
I’m not excited about McCaffrey’s size (he’s listed at 5-foot-10 and 205 pounds) but he’s not much smaller than four of the other running backs who finished with to top-10 numbers last year: Kamara, Hunt, Gordon, McCoy. Since 2000, I see a bunch of other backs who were no bigger than McCaffrey who put up top-10 numbers (standard scoring), and many of them did it multiple times. Brian Westbrook, C.J. Spiller, Charlie Garner, Chris Johnson, Clinton Portis, Darren Sproles, Jamaal Charles, Justin Forsett, Marshall Faulk, Reggie Bush, Steve Slaton, Tiki Barber, Willie Parker, Devonta Freeman.
Question 10
Would appear that Peyton Barber has soundly outplayed Ronald Jones during preseason. My sense is that he now seems poised to take advantage of the opportunity and hold onto the starting gig. Runs hard. Could see him getting 15-20 carries per game and running for 1,000 yards. Do you envision the same?
Greg Resin (Torrance, CA)
Barber averaged over 5 yards per carry in each of the first three preseason games, while Jones has carried 18 times for only 18 yards. The rookie has also struggled mightily in the passing game. I imagine they will continue to try to patiently bring Jones along, giving him a few carries per game. Maybe later in the year he gets more comfortable and merits a larger role. But for now, Barber looks pretty entrenched as the starting running back. He’s slow and he’s not creative (coming into the league, he wasn’t even drafted), but I think he’ll be starting for at least the first half of the season. Barber was the #32 running back in the rankings that went out yesterday, and that’s probably a little low. Let me check into the fourth preseason game (which is starting in a few minutes) but I should probably move Barber up a few spots.
Question 11
I am a long-time fan of Index from the early 90's. I have a question regarding Alfred Morris. I drafted five viable running backs in Gurley, Collins, Miller, Powell, and Barber, and picked up Alfred Morris based on Index's hunch. My league is a 12-team league so running back free agent options through the year are lower end. The dilemma I have is currently I only have Hooper at TE with no backup and with O.J. Howard available. Is your team's hunch on Morris fairly strong, or would you suggest picking up Howard and dropping Morris?
Todd Blinn (Obetz, OH)
Austin Hooper is supposed to take a step forward. He spent the offseason following Matt Ryan around, and that might help translate into him playing a larger role in the passing game. I am hopeful that Hooper might make a run at top-10 numbers. I saw him catch a touchdown in one of the preseason games. But I would think it would make a lot of sense to add another tight end, and O.J. Howard is way too talented to be sitting out there on the waiver wire. Howard was lightly used as a rookie, but he’s a talented guy – fast enough to catch 3 TDs from 30-plus yards in his first year. I think they’re going to use him more this year. He’s way more talented than Cameron Brate. Now that Howard has been around for a year, I think the logical progression is to use him more and use Brate less. So for your franchise, I think the correct move is to add him to the roster – giving you now two tight ends with some potential to move up into the top 10. To make room, you’ll need to release one of your three lesser running backs – Morris, Powell or Barber.
Question 12
I am in a 10-team standard scoring. Should I keep Watson, Cooper or Ajayi?
Raegan Weaver (Buchanan, MI)
Watson looks a lot better than I expected. He doesn’t look like he’s concerned at all with his surgically repaired knee. I don’t expect he’ll run nearly as often, but he looks far more developed and polished as a passer. Last year, recall, he completed only 51 percent of his passes in the preseason, showing some potential but not actually winning their starting job in the preseason – they opened the season with Tom Savage. This year, Watson is very much in charge. So if he can stay healthy, I think he’ll put up top-5 quarterbacking numbers. As far as keepers, though, you get into supply and demand. There are a bunch of quarterbacking options, and you’ll be able to get a couple of good ones in the later rounds. So I would think the correct move would be to add a quality wide receiver, Cooper. There aren’t as many of those.
Question 13
I'm in a 14-team, PPR entering our 29th year of live draft. This year, I'm sitting at pick 4. The three guys I really want (Gurley, Elliott, Bell) are probably gone. David Johnson scares me (new coach, ugly o-line) and picking Antonio Brown leaves me with a huge drop into the late second-round running back crop. Can you offer any thoughts into my dilemma?
Ben Blakely (Rochester, NY)
I had the same pick in a 12-team PPR draft. I traded down, picking up an extra 10th-round pick. Then, at No. 9, I ended up with Kareem Hunt, whom I see as pretty similar to the backs you might typically get at No. 4. Keep in mind that this is PPR scoring, so Alvin Kamara is in play. Barring injuries, he looks pretty sure to catch 80-plus balls, and that’s tough to beat in this kind of a format. In the last 20 years, 22 running backs have caught at least 80 passes in a season. Only four of those backs didn’t finish with top-10 PPR numbers, and they were all third-down backs – Larry Centers twice, Richie Anderson and Theo Riddick.
| 80-CATCH RUNNING BACKS (last 20 years) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Rec | Run | TD | Points | Rnk |
| 1998 | Marshall Faulk, Ind. | 86 | 908 | 1319 | 10 | 368.7 | 2 |
| 1999 | Marshall Faulk, St.L. | 87 | 1048 | 1381 | 12 | 403.9 | 1 |
| 2000 | • Richie Anderson, NYJ | 88 | 853 | 63 | 2 | 191.6 | 26 |
| 2000 | Marshall Faulk, St.L. | 81 | 830 | 1359 | 26 | 459.9 | 1 |
| 2000 | • Larry Centers, Ariz. | 80 | 600 | 103 | 3 | 168.3 | 28 |
| 2001 | Marshall Faulk, St.L. | 83 | 765 | 1382 | 21 | 425.7 | 1 |
| 2001 | • Larry Centers, Ariz. | 80 | 620 | 160 | 4 | 182.0 | 23 |
| 2002 | Charlie Garner, Oak. | 91 | 941 | 962 | 11 | 347.3 | 4 |
| 2002 | Marshall Faulk, St.L. | 80 | 537 | 953 | 10 | 289.0 | 10 |
| 2003 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 100 | 725 | 1645 | 17 | 443.0 | 2 |
| 2006 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 90 | 806 | 1528 | 16 | 419.4 | 2 |
| 2006 | Reggie Bush, N.O. | 88 | 742 | 565 | 9 | 272.7 | 9 |
| 2007 | Brian Westbrook, Phil. | 90 | 771 | 1333 | 12 | 372.4 | 1 |
| 2011 | Darren Sproles, N.O. | 86 | 710 | 603 | 10 | 277.3 | 5 |
| 2014 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 102 | 808 | 1038 | 10 | 350.6 | 3 |
| 2014 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 83 | 854 | 1361 | 11 | 370.5 | 1 |
| 2015 | Danny Woodhead, S.D. | 80 | 755 | 336 | 9 | 243.1 | 3 |
| 2015 | • Theo Riddick, Det. | 80 | 697 | 133 | 3 | 181.0 | 19 |
| 2016 | David Johnson, Ariz. | 80 | 879 | 1239 | 20 | 413.8 | 1 |
| 2017 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 85 | 655 | 1291 | 11 | 345.6 | 2 |
| 2017 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 81 | 826 | 728 | 14 | 322.4 | 3 |
| 2017 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 80 | 651 | 435 | 7 | 230.6 | 9 |
Question 14
Who are your 4 or 5 candidates to outplay their current ranking (non-PPR)? The data tells you where to slot players - but who are the guys "for some unknown reason" could way outplay their current draft position? I'm looking at guys currently slated for rounds 5-10. My personal FF history is that championships are won or lost with picks 5-10. So, put the stats aside, and share your gut on low-round, high upside guys.
JEFF POWERS (Coral Springs, FL)
With quarterbacks, I’d be looking at Philip Rivers, Alex Smith and Jameis Winston. Running backs: Chris Carson, Royce Freeman, Marlon Mack. At wide receiver, I’ll go with Sterling Shepard, Emmanuel Sanders, Devin Funchess and Geronimo Allison.
Question 15
I belong to a dynasty league with no limit on keepers. We therefore draft mostly rookies at the beginning of each season. It would be helpful if you included a portion of the preseason weekly updates exclusively on the analysis and ranking of the rookie QB, RB, WR, and TE positions, in the same way you do in the magazine itself.
Pasquale Franzese (San Rafael, CA)
On the Thursday version of the preseason update, page 8 is dedicated solely to dynasty leagues. We rank the top 80 running backs, top 80 wide receivers, top 40 quarterbacks and top 40 tight ends. That’s not for this year, it’s for dynasty, long-term purposes, and we have each rookie tagged with a black dot. In general, it doesn’t look like a great year for rookies. There was no franchise-type rookie receiver selected in the first round. A bunch of rookie running backs were selected late in the first round and in the second, but it looks like most of those will have slow starts to their careers.
Question 16
Just a quick question about the Kansas City backfield: You guys have been targeting Damian Williams for a while as the backup to Kareem Hunt. Pretty much everything I've read elsewhere indicates that Spencer Ware is now healthy and likely first off the bench. Williams was only signed to a small one-year deal and I thought he looked pretty underwhelming with the Dolphins. Why do you believe he's the guy behind Hunt? Care to weigh in on your thought process regarding the Kansas City running backs?
Andy Karr (Newton, IA)
I am uncertain enough about the backup situation that I have tightened the difference between Williams and Ware on my board. I can’t say with certainty that Williams will be the No. 2. It would not be shocking if it were Ware or one of their two other Williams – Kerwynn and Darrel. I settled on Damien Williams in the offseason. I think he’s a pretty good player. In each of the last two years in Miami, he was higher on the depth chart than Kenyan Drake for most of the season. He’s got some size and positional versatility, and he’s a good pass catcher, making him a good fit with this offense. I saw an article in The Kansas City Star at the start of the month in which the team’s general manager, Brett Veach, talked as if they signed him thinkin he’d be their No. 2. “I’m like, this guy isn’t (a backup), he’s a borderline (situational starter),” Veach said. “This guy is pretty good.” Ware is coming off a torn ACL, making it back onto the field for a game for the first time a week ago. Now the team needs to make its decision. None of these four backs have posted good numbers in the preseason (and I wrote this on Thursday, prior to the final preseason game).
Question 17
I’m trying to find a list of injuries and suspensions.
Monte Gambol (Bastrop, TX)
The big ones are Jameis Winston (3 games), Mark Ingram (4 games), Julian Edelman (4 games) and Aaron Jones (2 games).
Question 18
Here is my bench for a 16-team half-PPR league. Which player would you feel most comfortable about dropping? In other words, which sleeper is most likely to remain asleep? QB Winston, RB Morris, WR TreQuan Smith, WR Allison, WR Wallace, WR Patterson, TE Gesicki, TE Howard. I've been reading that TreQuan Smith should explode onto the scene for the Saints. He's had a great preseason. Doesn't seem like it would be too challenging for him to become their 2nd-best receiver – even post similar numbers to what Thomas did in year one. Would you agree?
Greg Resin (Torrance, CA)
I would be comfortable tossing Gesicki, Wallace, Smith and Patterson. Watching Smith catch a couple of balls for the Saints, it occurred to me that he might develop into something. I liked the way he plucked the ball, and I liked his size. If I were drafting in a dynasty league, I would select him before Ted Ginn or Cameron Meredith. But unlikely, I think, that he puts up viable numbers in 2018. Allison moved up on my revised board yesterday. He’s definitely the No. 3 receiver there – he’s dispatched of the rookies – and Randall Cobb looks like a question mark at best. Cobb has been declining in recent years and has had issues with his ankles. Cobb easily could miss a chunk of time, and Allison might simply be better than a healthy Cobb. Your most disposable player, I think, is Gesicki. He’s fine, and I will concede that they’ll make some effort to use him in the red zone. He’s 6-foot-6 and has a 41-inch vertical. I saw them try to get him the ball on a couple of lobs into the end zone in the preseason games. But with a starter and with O.J. Howard, I think you’re set at tight end.
Question 19
As someone who is going to try the strategy suggested in this year’s edition of FFI of drafting Roethlisberger and playing him for home games and sitting him for another quality starter (Rivers in my case) when Ben is on the road, do any his road games the first 13 weeks look like an opportunity to bend this rule and play him anyway? His road games in those 13 weeks are: @CLE, @TAM, @CIN, @BAL, @JAC, @DEN.
Rich Nadler (Aurora, IL)
Steelers have a new offensive coordinator, Randy Fichtner. Maybe that will put a new twist on play-calling, with Roethlisberger becoming more viable on the road. Or maybe the week before they play at Cincinnati, the Bengals lose both of their starting cornerbacks with injuries. Time will tell. For now, I would be planning to start Philip Rivers in those weeks. Rivers isn’t chopped liver – he’s about as good as Roethlisberger anyway.
Question 20
Every year you come up with one or two players that the general public doesn't know about that make the difference in winning and losing the FF year. Last year it was Dalvin Cook (until he got hurt), Kamara and Hunt that were relative sleepers until they busted out immediately. I picked all 3 drafting 9th in a PPR league. Who you got this year not named Saquon?
TIM ZEUCH (Mason, OH)
It was an outlier year last year for running backs, with not only Cook-Kamara-Hunt but also Fournette and McCaffrey. (McCaffrey didn’t do much as a runner but caught lots of passes.) That kind of season won’t happen again anytime soon. If there’s another good running back this year (in addition to Barkley) I think it most likely will be Royce Freeman. Most of the rookies have been struggling, but he keeps ripping off runs.
Question 21
This year we have adopted a rule where kickers get .1 points per yard of FGs. (So, a 42 yarder is 4.2 pts, a 25 yarder is 2.5 pts, etc.) Doesn't seem like it would affect scoring that much, but might make those last-second Monday night FGs more interesting. Was wondering what your thoughts on this rule change are?
Scott Anderson (Lakewood, CO)
It is more complicated, but I don’t think it will change your decision making much. Gostkowski, Zuerlein and Tucker look like the best kickers; it doesn’t matter so much how many bells and whistles are added to the scoring system. I don’t have the stats set up to give you a report on your exact scoring system, but below see a comparison for something similar. I’m showing the top 20 kickers from last year, with their regular NFL points, and their points if giving 4 for field goals form 40-plus and 5 for field goals from 50-plus. The order is almost identical, and if you look at the top 14 kickers, they all improved by 16 to 25 points.
| ENHANCED KICKER SCORING | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Std | New | Diff |
| Greg Zuerlein | 158 | 182 | 24 |
| Stephen Gostkowski | 156 | 172 | 16 |
| Robbie Gould | 145 | 170 | 25 |
| Justin Tucker | 141 | 162 | 21 |
| Matt Bryant | 137 | 162 | 25 |
| Wil Lutz | 140 | 161 | 21 |
| Harrison Butker | 142 | 160 | 18 |
| Chris Boswell | 142 | 159 | 17 |
| Ryan Succop | 136 | 156 | 20 |
| Matt Prater | 130 | 151 | 21 |
| Kai Forbath | 130 | 148 | 18 |
| Jake Elliott | 117 | 139 | 22 |
| Phil Dawson | 119 | 137 | 18 |
| Stephen Hauschka | 116 | 137 | 21 |
| Graham Gano | 121 | 131 | 10 |
| Adam Vinatieri | 109 | 125 | 16 |
| Chandler Catanzaro | 104 | 120 | 16 |
| Brandon McManus | 99 | 109 | 10 |
| Blair Walsh | 100 | 108 | 8 |
| Kaimi Fairbairn | 92 | 104 | 12 |
Question 22
You have James White much higher in PPR than Chris Thompson. Yet on a target per game basis last year they were about even. Thompson seemed to have a few huge games last year before the injury. What in your mind separates these two so much?
WILL SAYRE (Sacramento, CA)
With White, you know what you’re getting. Thompson is coming off a broken leg and didn’t play in the preseason. Jay Gruden says Thompson is healthy, but we haven’t seen him on the field, and it isn’t as certain he’ll fill the same kind of role.
Question 23
I was wondering how you calculate best draft position. With the system you use is there a way to put together the perfect draft order so all teams are close in your point system? In our draft, we go 1-10 in first round, opposite in 2nd. 3rd rd: 9,8,7,6,1,10,5,4,3,2 (4th rd opposite). 5th rd: 3,4,5,10,9,2,1,6,7,8 (6th rd. opposite). 7th rd: 7,6,1,2,3,8,9,10,5,4 (8th rd. opposite). 9th rd: 5,10,9,8,7,4,3,2,1,6 (10th rd. opposite). Would something like that get each team pretty close?
Dan Isgro (Camp Springs, MD)
On the downside, with your system there needs to be a 20-ounce limit on beer per franchise. (Otherwise too many owners won’t know when it’s their turn to pick.) In trying to craft a draft order, keep in mind that once we’re past the third round, guys are going to settle in and pick the guys they want. There are a handful of players I’ll be selecting in the middle and later rounds, and those won’t be affect so much by which draft choice I’ve gotten. It’s an inexact science trying to calculate the best draft position. When I’m looking at it, I first calculate what I think players are worth, then see how those points would be allocated if all the franchises drafted the way I would (which would never actually happen). I’ve looked at it many times over the years, and for a regular snake draft, the early draft slots (1, 2, 3) always end up projecting to be more valuable. I assume you have heard of the 3rd Round Reversal? That format is similar to yours, only simpler. With 3RR, once you get to the end of the second round, every remaining pick is flipped. (In your league, the owner with picks 1.10 and 2.01 would then get to start things off in the third round.) Whenever I try to study which draft order is the best, the 3RR always grades out as more equitable than the traditional snake draft.
Question 24
If we knew that Shady McCoy was not going to be suspended, where would you rank him above other RBs in a PPR league? Would you slot him ahead of Drake, Howard, Collins, Mixon or Cook?
STEVEN MATH (Austin, TX)
I just looked at the per-game projections for the top 30 running backs on my board. McCoy comes in 12th. But that might be a little high. He’s also a 30-year-old back stuck on the league’s worst offense. Devonta Freeman and Dalvin Cook come in right behind them, and I would select them before McCoy.
Question 25
I have pick 4 in a 12-team PPR. I'm sure Bell, Gurley and Elliott will be gone. Am I over thinking taking Antonio Brown instead of David Johnson?
Mark Gassino (Pueblo, CO)
Alvin Kamara should also be in the discussion, I think. It’s PPR scoring. Antonio Brown is a great player, but my preference would be to select a running back. Then you would be set up nicely to select wide receivers with your picks in the next two rounds. That would start you off with a nice RB-WR-WR core. If you start with Brown, I think you’re more likely to have to jam a running back you’re not actually excited about into either the second or third round.
Question 26
Interested in your take on three under-the-radar backup running backs: Trenton Cannon (NYJ), Detrez Newsome (LAC), Jaylen Samuels (PIT).
Derek Trupe (Queen City, ON)
You’re really scrapping the bottom the barrel. Are you confident these three guys are even making those rosters? I saw Cannon lose a fumble on a kickoff last week. I suppose he’s younger and cheaper than Thomas Rawls and Charcandrick West. Will be a surprise, I think, if any of those youngsters gets 5 carries in a game this year. If you’re looking for a starter, I wonder if your odds would improve by drafting DeMarco Murray. Murray is retired, but in theory some team later this season could talk him into coming back.
Question 27
I have the 3rd pick in the draft for a standard yardage league and am really having a hard time deciding who to take. I was starting to lean towards Hunt, but he dropped a couple of spots in my custom rankings. What are your thoughts? If I were to take Bell how early should I pull the trigger on his backup Connor?
JOHN RUPPE (Fort Myers, FL)
Maybe you can trade down a few spots and pick up a mid-round pick? With Bell, you’d be taking on some baggage. He and the team were unable to agree on a contract. Will he even play in Week 1? And what kind of shape is he in? He’s had more injury issues than other backs? If you select Bell, you’ll have to budget a pick of some value to also select James Conner.