Hey, check it out: The headline and subhead have alliteration and assonance. Pretty cool, eh?
Okay, I'll cut to the chase. Last year, rookie Kareem Hunt was on fire in week 1: He ran for 148 yards and a touchdown, and added five receptions for 98 yards and two more scores. Whatever scoring system you use, Hunt was fantastic, and well worth whatever auction dollars you spent or whatever round you drafted him.
But if you're looking for this years Kareem Hunt, don't bother. He's not on your team.
To be fair, he's not on any team. There is no formula where a guy comes out of nowhere to destroy the league in week 1, and if you can figure out who it is you'll have the edge in your league. You already know that fact, of course. But we all saw what Hunt did last year, and many people who had him didn't get any of those points since he was on the bench as a lottery ticket. And that can be frustrating. Who wants to lose a game because a "better" guy does nothing while a fantasy superstar is riding the pine? So there's a tendency to look for whoever has the potential for a breakout game, and consider starting them over a more-established player.
I think that's a terrible idea in week 1. You shouldn't bail on a starter before they've had a chance to prove you right (or wrong). Searching for the home run is a good way to strike out (I'm not big on baseball, so I hope I said that right). And you don't want to lose a game you should have won because you took out the guy you planned to start.
We've waited so long to finally set a lineup that matters, sometimes we can overthink it. We want every position to score multiple touchdowns, and we might even chase that possibility. A solid-but-boring contributor doesn't seem worthy of your first lineup in eight months. So why not go for broke?
Short answer: Because you're not desperate. You're 0-0. It's one thing to take calculated risks or gambles based on how you feel about a player or matchup. But to trash your draft strategy and race to the end of your roster looking for a superstar isn't necessary this early in the year. And really, you're looking for a performance that probably won't happen for any player on any fantasy team. Don't micromanage your own job at the beginning of the year.
Kareem Hunt had a stellar week 1, and he established himself as a fantasy starter. But that game was his best of the year, and he endured a significant drought during the season, too. Besides, you don't need to look for the next breakout superstar this week. You need to win your game. If you have solid points available from your expected starting lineup, take them.
Besides, if there actually is a sleeping giant on your roster, he'll emerge soon enough. You can get by without getting cute with your lineup. In some ways, week 1 is the most dangerous because we think there's so much at stake. In reality, it's just one week in the season. Be patient with your team and don't overthink the lineups. You know who your starters are. Start them.
By the way, I drafted Hunt and started him in week 1 last year. I had no other choice, since I waited so long to draft running backs. And yes, it paid off spectacularly. But if I had anyone better to start, I would have. And while I also would have hated losing those points, it would have been the right call. This year I'm starting the established players while keeping an eye on the prospects while they ride the bench.
If one of them pans out, there's plenty of time to utilize their talents. It's a long season, after all, and it's about to start. Good luck this week.
Are you taking any big risks in week 1? Looking for a boost from a late-round steal, or are you going with your projected starters? Ever get burned (or validated) on those gambles? Share your thoughts below.