The first few rounds of a draft are the most fun. Even the NFL thinks so. Check out the spectacle of the first round versus the last round. What channel is round 7 even on? The Ocho from Dodgeball?
But in our game, the middle (and late) rounds can make all the difference, and you'll probably have to choose between a bunch of guys who look similar on paper. Here's a little last-minute advice on navigating the "boring" part of your draft.
You never have to take someone. When I see draft results, I often hear people say "well, so-and-so was just sitting there when my turn came up, so I had to take him." That tells me there was a battle between an owner's evaluation and the common wisdom of the latest cheat sheet. And the owner lost. That's too bad, because the guy didn't get any faster, stronger or more talented since the previous round. Unless he's better than everyone left on your own list, those red flags shouldn't be ignored. Never feel like you have to take anyone, even if other owners think it's a no-brainer. What's so great about their brains, anyway?
It's okay to take the K. There's an unwritten rule in fantasy football about taking kickers: Anything earlier than the last two rounds makes you a moron. Feel free to ignore that rule and secure an every-week starter over another mediocre bench-warmer.
Maybe you like Gostkowski's consistency. Maybe you like the fact that Will Lutz will play 11 out of 16 games (and four out of the first five games) in domes. Or maybe you just want to find a good player and forget about that position for most of the year. It doesn't matter. You'll hear that you could get a top guy on the waiver wire. And that's true. You'll also hear that the difference between a great kicker and an average kicker is just a few points. That's also true. And you can do it anyway.
You don't need to get the very best kicker. You just need one of the good ones. And the fact that you could get a good one later or on the waiver wire is no guarantee you will. Finally, a couple of points here and there can be the difference between 9-5 (making the playoffs) and 7-7 (making excuses). Is that worth taking a guy a round or two earlier? Up to you. Some people succeed by taking kickers at the very end of the draft, and that's great. But if you want a specific one, don't be shamed into waiting.
Don't pick the guy on your favorite team. Long story short, there's a built-in bias that you can't really quantify. But it's there, fueled by a friendly team media and your personal desire for their success. You might be elevating those players into a tier where they don't really belong, and that can hurt your draft.
The good news is that other people in your city are going to do the exact same thing. So instead of just avoiding a pitfall, you now have an advantage over everyone who laps up the good offseason press: This guy lost some weight and that should really help him! That guy gained some weight and that should really help him! Young players have turned the corner. Old players have turned back the clock. A running back who can't catch a cold has been working on that part of his game and his hands have actually softened. A receiver who hasn't lived up to expectations is ready for a breakout season. All the coaches say so. And on and on.
Let another homer pay a subconscious premium for them while you take an objective stance on all your players, especially in the later rounds when you need reliable depth.
Go with your gut. Okay, this might conflict with the previous advice. But in the end, it's your team. If you really like a player, take them. Even if they're past their prime, or on your favorite team, or even someone on the Buffalo Bills. You want to win, but this is supposed to be a fun game, too. If having "your guy" means the season is a little more interesting, it's worth making room for them. You still have the rest of your lineup to make up for any mistakes.
Besides, maybe it's not a mistake at all. Maybe you're right and the other owners are the morons. Imagine how sweet it will be to call your shot, take it and win a title with it. And even if you don't win it all, you didn't follow the herd. You played your game your way, and that alone is worth the price of admission. Good luck on draft day.
Any last-minute tips that have worked for you? Any advice that's helped you succeed over the years? Share your thoughts below.
12 Reader Comments:
George Rodenbach
David Kennedy
DAVID DIGREGORIO
DAVID DIGREGORIO
Dave Cohen
I agree about taking kickers early. I always get laughed at, but I'd rather grab Gostkowski or Legatron in Round 14 and have that weekly edge. Every point counts. Usually the sleeper I want is still available in Round 16, while other teams are getting their kickers.
ROBERT JOHNSON
Eric Pryne
James Costello
BOB MCKINLAY
Edith Harris
Shaun Hawkins
Mark Easton