This is the spot for some sage, knowing remark about being too sure you know what's going to happen. The Vikings were going to run circles around the Bills. The Patriots were going to easily send the Lions to 0-3. Then the games happen, and things go completely differently. The next time you see a comically high point spread, remember that sometimes players buy into it, one side perhaps getting too relaxed, the other getting really ticked off.
Amid the Survivor Pool and fantasy carnage, the takeaway is that these games start out 0-0. A few plays, some good or bad fortune, the realization that even the worst teams have some great players -- these things matter. Any week you win is a good week; it's not just that you're so much smarter than everyone else, sometimes you were just lucky.
Saints at Falcons: The shootout we don't always get in this matchup happened. Kind of unexpected that Calvin Ridley would catch 3 TDs, but the guy's good, and maybe he'll be the No. 2 here sooner rather than later. Big games for both quarterbacks, including a pair of rushing scores for Drew Brees. And another monster PPR game for Alvin Kamara, who's simply carrying my team in a league. The guys who took LeVeon Bell and David Johnson ahead of me are presumably not happy. Saints better against the run than the pass, helping explain the quieter game for Tevin Coleman. Saints are playing like earlier years, lots of passing and not much D.
Broncos at Ravens: Tough break for Phillip Lindsay, ejected early on for throwing a sort-of punch in a skirmish. Hard to factor that into the rankings, though it helped Royce Freeman. Anther good game for Emmanuel Sanders, thanks to a rushing touchdown. Three weeks in it's looking like the Denver defense might not be so good. Ravens give enough red zone touches to Javorius Allen that he scores 2 TDs on limited touches, but a nice day for Alex Collins anyway. Three caches and 59 yards for Mark Andrews, those of us who drafted Hayden Hurst everywhere grit our teeth.
Bengals at Panthers: Pretty hard to shop the Cam Newton-Christian McCaffrey show. All this work I spend on the offensive line rankings and here's Carolina winning games and putting up points with most of theirs injured. A.J. Green left this game with a groin injury, hopefully nothing serious. My outlier pick of Carolina in a Survivor Pool worked out. Nice game for Giovani Bernard, and for Andy Dalton for a little while. Another good game and a touchdown for Tyler Boyd.
Giants at Texans: Good call by Ian, noting that the last time the Giants installed a new offense they were lousy for the first couple of games and then good in the third. So my decision to bench Sterling Shepard in a couple of leagues hurt, although Shepard was also aided by Evan Engram leaving early with a knee injury. Good games also for Eli Manning, Odell Beckham and Saquon Barkley -- compared to last week, at least. For Houston, DeAndre Hopkins had a touchdown wiped out by a penalty. Will Fuller scored and went over 100 yards again. Remarkable. Lamar Miller saved those who started him with a touchdown reception at the end of the game (but went nowhere on the ground).
Titans at Jaguars: The Titans had a quarterback who could barely throw the ball, and left with an injury, and another one who could barely grip it, and came in with an injury. What was Jacksonville's excuse? I guess we can say the Tennessee defense is as good as we were thinking back in May (and better than we were thinking in August, when everyone was hurt). And Jacksonville's got some work to do on offense. Maybe Jacksonville held Leonard Fournette out thinking they could win this one without him. Anyway, they didn't, and they'd probably have been better with Fournette. Not a week to use any receivers from either team.
49ers at Kansas City: More good numbers for the Kansas City offense as expected. Good numbers for San Francisco in a losing effort. Unreal touchdown by Patrick Mahomes, scrambling around in the backfield before delivering a laser for a touchdown. Late in the game Jimmy Garoppolo was carted off with a knee injury, which looked like it occurred on a step near the sideline before he was hit. A shame. Anyway Kansas City looks like it might run away with the AFC West. This might be your chance to buy low on Tyreek Hill.
Raiders at Dolphins: As a Kenyan Drake guy, this was a frustrating one. Miami didn't control the ball much and hit on some big plays (not involving Drake), and he just didn't get enough chance. But Miami is 3-0 and fans are happy for another week. Huge game by Jordy Nelson out of nowhere, Miami apparently forgot they had to cover him. I'm not buying. Jared Cook had a touchdown taken away by instant replay, inches short of the goal line. Big game for Jakeem Grant, started by no one 'cause he's basically the team's 5th receiver.
Bills at Vikings: You know, I THOUGHT the Bills might pull the upset here. Just kidding, I thought there was zero chance. Even when they were up 17-0. But at 24-0, I said, you know, I think the Bill might pull the upset. A reminder that these are all NFL teams and you can't get too excited by big point spreads, as maybe the Vikings did? Or the Bills got fired up? Or they made some plays early, getting some pressure on a not-so-great line, forcing a couple of fumbles deep in Minnesota's territory, and there you go. Big bust starting Latavius Murray, because he wasn't able to run with a lead or anything.
Colts at Eagles: Eagles are making a habit of winning games where at the very end the opposing team is down near the end zone but can't finish their drive. It's a good defense, the Colts are pretty one-dimensional, and the Eagles have experience winning these types of games. Still, Andrew Luck nearly got it done, and nice to see how much some of these guys care; Luck beating the ground in frustration after barely being tripped up in the backfield on fourth down. Fantasy-wise, not a great game for anyone except for Dallas Goedert; let me know if you actually started him.
Packers at Washington: Another week, another dubious penalty on Clay Matthews. It's just a bad rule; there was absolutely nothing Matthews could have done different besides not get the sack. Washington's offense lit up Green Bay's defense, and Adrian Peterson was better than I expected. Maybe facing the Packers got him all fired up or something. Rodgers is limping around out there but I don't know that they're going to sit him down or anything, and he's still playing well. Geronimo Allison catches a long touchdown to salvage an otherwise quiet day, Davante Adams does the same with a short touchdown. Green Bay running backs got 7, 7 and 10 touches. Can't start any of them right now. Shockingly quiet game for Chris Thompson, who's better if you think Washington is going to lose (like this week).
Chargers at Rams: Battle of LA a pretty entertaining one, with some great plays made by both teams. Beautiful early Rivers to Mike Williams bomb. Really impressive Goff to Kupp touchdown, both Goff moving around in the pocket to make the throw and Kupp shaking a tackle to finish the play. Gurley and Gordon both showing why they're first-round fantasy picks. But the Rams just have too much on both sides of the ball. Remember, this was one of the league's worst teams just a couple of years ago. Can the Vikings slow them down in Week 4? You'd have thought so until Josh Allen put up 3 total TDs against them. Big game for Robert Woods, really glad I decided not to bench him.
Bears at Cardinals: Sunday morning there was a report that the Cardinals had no plans to bench Sam Bradford for Josh Rosen. Which was meaningless, because of course they'd SAY that, but at the first sign of Bradford struggling in a game they controlled for a half before falling apart, in comes Rosen. (It was inevitable.) Cardinals aren't going anywhere, of course, but this one stings. Larry Fitzgerald's really quiet game reminded of the risk in starting player at less than 100 percent. Big game for Christian Kirk, and the ground game. Still not much happening for Mitchell Trubisky and the passing game, but some decent production for Trey Burton. And the win.
Cowboys at Seahawks: Damning story about the Seahawks in the latest Sports Illustrated. Or maybe it was the week before; I don't always read them right away. But not surprising their defense, at home, still has enough ability to shut down the Dallas offense, such as it is. But the handful of people who started Tavon Austin got another touchdown. Big play for Tyler Lockett, it's what he does. And the Seahawks decided to feature Chris Carson to the tune of 124 total yards and a touchdown. Next week they'll probably give Rashaad Penny more work, although they shouldn't (involved in an early fumbled handoff, factoring into his limited role).
Patriots at Lions: What a near-perfect game played by the Lions. A breakout for Kerryon Johnson, but I thought LeGarrette Blount (though he averaged just 3.0 yards per carry) also looked really good, albeit far, far slower. Brilliant outing by Matthew Stafford, too, who just missed on another couple of touchdowns to Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay. Hard to believe this was the same team that got worked over by the Jets in Week 1. That's two convincing losses in a row for New England, which I don't think has happened very often.
Monday, Monday: Because of my ill-conceived decision to start Will Dissly (never again), I'm left needing 40ish points out of Ryan Fitzpatrick and JuJu Smith-Schuster-Smith to get a win in an important league. If the game goes as I expect, I'll be fine, but expectations aren't always how things turn out. Watch the Bucs come out controlling the clock with Peyton Barber and the ground game and winning 17-10. But more likely it's a shootout, and I'll bet on Fitzpatrick until the music stops. Bucs 28, Steelers 24.